• Title/Summary/Keyword: average model

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Relationships Between Average Travel Speed, Time-Delayed Rate, and Volume on Two-lane Highways with Simulation Data (2차로도로 평균 통행속도-총지체율-교통량 관계 곡선 재정립)

  • Moon, Jae-Pil;Kim, Yong-Seok
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES : Two-lane highways have one lane in each direction, and lane changing and passing maneuvers take place in the opposing lane depending on the availability of passing sight distance. 2001 Korea Highway Capacity Manual (KHCM) is classified into two classes of two-lane highways (Type I, II), and average travel speed and time-delayed rate are used as measures of effectiveness (MOEs). However, since existing two-lane highways have both uninterrupted and interrupted traffic flow-system elements, a variety of free-flow speeds exhibits in two-lane highways. In addition, it is necessary to check if the linear-relationship between volumes and time-delayed rate is appropriate. Then, this study is to reestablish the relationship between average travel speed, time-delayed rate, and flow. METHODS : TWOPAS model was selected to conduct this study, and the free-flow speeds of passenger cars and the percentage of following vehicles observed in two-lane highways were applied to the model as the input. The revised relationships were developed from the computer simulation. RESULTS : In the revised average travel speed vs. flow relationship, the free-flow speed of 90km/h and 70km/h were added. It shows that the relationship between time delayed-rate and flow appeared to be appropriate with the log-function form and that there was no difference in time-delayed rate between the free flow speeds. In addition to revise the relationships, the speed prediction model and the time-delayed rate prediction model were also developed. CONCLUSIONS : The revised relationships between average travel speed, time-delayed rate, and flow would be useful in estimating the Level of Service(LOS) of a two-lane highway.

Network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination

  • Lian Lian
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2024
  • We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

Forecasting with a combined model of ETS and ARIMA

  • Jiu Oh;Byeongchan Seong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2024
  • This paper considers a combined model of exponential smoothing (ETS) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models that are commonly used to forecast time series data. The combined model is constructed through an innovational state space model based on the level variable instead of the differenced variable, and the identifiability of the model is investigated. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters and suggest the model selection steps. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated by two real time series data. We consider the three competing models; ETS, ARIMA and the trigonometric Box-Cox autoregressive and moving average trend seasonal (TBATS) models, and compare and evaluate their root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors for accuracy. The results show that the combined model outperforms the competing models.

Analysis of Failure Criterion for Combustion Pipe with Notch using Effective Distance (유효거리를 이용한 연소기관 노치부의 파손기준 해석)

  • Kim, Duck-Hoi;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Moon, Soon-Il
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2004
  • In this study, the intrinsic static/dynamic fracture toughness of Al 7175=T74 is evaluated from the apparent static/ dynamic toughness of notched specimen, The critical average stress fracture model is suggested to establish the relationship to predict the intrinsic fracture toughness from the apparent fracture toughness of a notched specimen. The critical average stress fracture model is established using the relation between the notch root radius and the effective distance calculated by finite element analysis. Also, effective distance is applied to estimate the failure criterion for the combustion pipe with notch. It is conclude that the true fracture toughness can be estimated from test results of apparent fracture toughness measured by using a notched specimen. Also, the effective In this study, the intrinsic static/dynamic fracture toughness of Al 7175=T74 is evaluated from the apparent static/ dynamic toughness of notched specimen, The critical average stress fracture model is suggested to establish the relationship to predict the intrinsic fracture toughness from the apparent fracture toughness of a notched specimen. The critical average stress fracture model is established using the relation between the notch root radius and the effective distance calculated by finite element analysis. Also, effective distance is applied to estimate the failure criterion for the combustion pipe with notch. It is conclude that the true fracture toughness can be estimated from test results of apparent fracture toughness measured by using a notched specimen. Also, the effective distance can be used to evaluate the failure criterion of structure with notch.

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Controls Methods Review of Single-Phase Boost PFC Converter : Average Current Mode Control, Predictive Current Mode Control, and Model Based Predictive Current Control

  • Hyeon-Joon Ko;Yeong-Jun Choi
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.12
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2023
  • For boost PFC (Power Factor Correction) converters, various control methods are being studied to achieve unity power factor and low THD (Total Harmonic Distortion) of AC input current. Among them, average current mode control, which controls the average value of the inductor current to follow the current reference, is the most widely used. However, nowadays, as advanced digital control becomes possible with the development of digital processors, predictive control of boost PFC converters is receiving attention. Predictive control is classified into predictive current mode control, which generates duty in advance using a predictive algorithm, and model predictive current control, which performs switching operations by selecting a cost function based on a model. Therefore, this paper simply explains the average current mode control, predictive current mode control, and model predictive current control of the boost PFC converter. In addition, current control under entire load and disturbance conditions is compared and analyzed through simulation.

Analysis of the traffic flow using stochastic Petri Nets (스토케스틱 페트리 네트를 이용한 교통 흐름 분석)

  • Cho, Hwon;Ko, In-Sun
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.1504-1507
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we investigate a traffic flow modeled by stochastic Petri nets. The model consists of two parts : the traffic flow model and signal controller model. These models are used for analyzing the flow of the traffic intersection. The results of the evaluation are derived from a Petri Net-based simulation package, Greatspn. Through simulation we compare the performances of the pretimed signal controller with those of the trafic-adaptive signal controller.

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On Stationarity of TARMA(p,q) Process

  • Lee, Oesook;Lee, Mihyun
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2001
  • We consider the threshold autoregressive moving average(TARMA) process and find a sufficient condition for strict stationarity of the proces. Given region for stationarity of TARMA(p,q) model is the same as that of TAR(p) model given by Chan and Tong(1985), which shows that the moving average part of TARMA(p,q) process does not affect the stationarity of the process. We find also a sufficient condition for the existence of kth moments(k$\geq$1) of the process with respect to the stationary distribution.

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Study on Control Model Based on Signal Processing In End-Milling Process (엔드밀 공정에서의 신호처리에 따른 제어모델에 관한 연구)

  • 양우석;이건복
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.192-196
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    • 2001
  • This work describes the modeling of cutting process for feedback control based on signal processing in end-milling. Here, cutting force is used to design control model by a variety of schemes which are moving average, ensemble average, peak value, root mean square and analog low-pass filtering. It is expected that each model offers its own peculiar advantage in following cutting force control.

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Modelingof Prioritized Token Ring (우선순위 토큰링의 모델링)

  • 채기준
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 1993
  • Analytic and simulation models for prioritized token ring are presented in this paper. Its protocol is based on prioritized token ring with reservation (R-PTR). Since the protocol of the R-PTR is simple and the performance of the R-PTR is not inferior to that of the IEEE-PTR under almost all traffic load environments, we use the R-PTR as our token ring model. By using the properties of Markovian process, the expressions for average throughput and average packet transmission delay are derived. The results obtained from the analytic model are compared with that of the discrete event simulation model.

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An Inventory Policy for Partial Backorders Case with Interest Rate (이자율(利子率)을 고려한 부분(部分) 부재고(負在庫) 재고(在庫) 모형(模型)에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Wan;O, Se-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 1987
  • In this paper, a deterministic EOQ model with interest rate in which a proportion (${\beta}$) of the demand is backlogged and the rest (1-${\beta}$) is lost. The optimal order quantity is derived and the corresponding average cost is obtained, Sensitivity analysis is performed to sec the influence of interest rate on the optimal order quantity and the average cost. Finally a numerical example is given in which optimum quantities of the model developed in this study and those of the conventional EOQ model are compared.

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