• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.463-477
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• 2003

This study identified the effects of global temperature rise on snowfall change over Korea selecting Seoul, Gangneung, Gunsan, and Daegu as study areas. The trend of snowfall change has generally decreased since 1950s over Korea, but has only increased in Gunsan since 1990s. The variation of snowfall days are similar to those of snowfall. The relationship between snowfall over Korea and the anomaly of global mean temperature in spring has a negative correlation. The change of Siberian High intensity also has a good relationship with snowfall in both Gunsan and Gangneung; the former is positively correlated while the latter is negatively correlated. This result might suggest that if the intensity of Siberian High would weakens due the ongoing global warming in the future, there would be a possibility that the amount snowfall could decrease in Gunsan but it could increase in Gangneung.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.59-72
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• 2016

The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.203-214
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• 2016

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of stratospheric temperature and circulations in the Global Seasonal forecasting model version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast experiment over the period of 1996~2009. Both the tropical and extratropical circulations are considered by analyzing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV). Their prediction skills are quantitatively evaluated by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) and Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS), and compared with those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Stratospheric temperature is generally better predicted than tropospheric temperature. Such improved prediction skill, however, rapidly disappears in a month, and a reliable prediction skill is observed only in the tropics, indicating a higher prediction skill in the tropics than in the extratropics. Consistent with this finding, QBO is well predicted more than 6 months in advance. Its prediction skill is significant in all seasons although a relatively low prediction skill appears in the spring when QBO phase transition often takes place. This seasonality is qualitatively similar to the spring barrier of ENSO prediction skill. In contrast, NHPV exhibits no prediction skill beyond one month as in AO prediction skill. In terms of MSSS, both QBO and NHPV are better predicted than their counterparts in the troposphere, i.e., ENSO and AO, indicating that the GloSea5 has a higher prediction skill in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.119-130
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• 2015

Impacts of Argo temperature assimilation on the analysis fields in the East Sea is investigated by using DAESROM, the East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3-dimensional variational assimilation module (Kim et al., 2009). Namely, we produced analysis fields in 2009, in which temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomaly were assimilated (Exp. AllDa) and carried out additional experiment by withdrawing Argo temperature data (Exp. NoArgo). When comparing both experimental results using assimilated temperature profiles, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the Exp. AllDa is generally lower than the Exp. NoArgo. In particular, the Argo impacts are large in the subsurface layer, showing the RMSE difference of about $0.5^{\circ}C$. Based on the observations of 14 surface drifters, Argo impacts on the current and temperature fields in the surface layer are investigated. In general, surface currents along the drifter positions are improved in the Exp. AllDa, and large RMSE differences (about 2.0~6.0 cm/s) between both experiments are found in drifters which observed longer period in the southern region where Argo density was high. On the other hand, Argo impacts on the SST fields are negligible, and it is considered that SST assimilation with 1-day interval has dominant effects. Similar to the difference of surface current fields between both experiments, SSH fields also reveal significant difference in the southern East Sea, for example the southwestern Yamato Basin where anticyclonic circulation develops. The comparison of SSH fields implies that SSH assimilation does not correct the SSH difference caused by withdrawing Argo data. Thus Argo assimilation has an important role to reproduce meso-scale circulation features in the East Sea.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.137-158
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• 2000

The correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses over the globe have been applied to intercompare lower-stratospheric (${\sim}$70hPa) temperature obtained from satellite data and two model reanalyses. The data is the19 years (1980-98) Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 4 (Ch4) brightness temperature, and the reanalyses are GCM (NCEP, 1980-97; GEOS, 1981-94) outputs. In MSU monthly climatological anomaly, the temperature substantially decreases by ${\sim}$21k in winter over southern polar regions, and its annual cycle over tropics is weak. In October the temperature and total ozone over the area south of Australia remarkably increase together. High correlations (r${\ge}$0.95) between MSU and reanalyses occur in most global areas, but they are lower (r${\sim}$O.75) over the 20-3ON latitudes, northern America and southern Andes mountains. The first mode of MSU and reanalyses for monthly-mean Ch4 temperature shows annual cycle, and the lower-stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions. The analyses near the Korean peninsula show that lower-stratospheric temperature, out of phase with that for troposphere, increases in winter and decreases in summer. In the first mode for anomaly over the tropical Pacific, MSU and reanalyses indicate lower-stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions. In the second mode MSU and GEOS present Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) while NCEP, El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. Volcanic eruption and QBO have more impact on lower-stratospheric thermal state than El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. The EOF over the tropical Atlantic is similar to that over the Pacific, except a negligible effect of El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. This study suggests that intercomparison of satellite data with model reanalyses may estimate relative accuracy of both data.