• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.41-59
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• 2016

There have been continuous improvements in human life expectancy. Life expectancy is as a key factor in an aging population and can wreak severe damage on the financial integrity of pension providers. Hence, the projection of the accurate future mortality is a critical point to prevent possible losses to pension providers. However, improvements in future mortality would be overestimated by a typical mortality projection method using the Lee-Carter model since it underestimates the mortality index ${\kappa}_t$. This paper suggests a mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality versus the typical mortality projection of the Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The paper shows how to indirectly estimate future t trend with the skewness of the mortality and compares the results under each estimation method of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The analysis of the results shows that mortality projection based on the skewness presents less improved mortality at an elderly ages than the original projection.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.273-282
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• 2021

Nursing home plays a role in providing elderly care in the context of China's rapid population aging, but little understanding of the efficiency of the nursing homes. In this paper, we investigated the efficiency in nursing homes using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index (MPI) for the modeling of the number of nursing home beds, fixed assets, and medical personnel as input variables, and the number of elderly people of self-care, the number of elderly people of partial self-care, the number of bed-ridden elderly people and the income of nursing homes as output variables. Stratification analysis showed that the top two provinces in the DEA-CCR yield were Beijing and Shanghai in the five-year survey period. Four provinces (Beijing, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shanghai) scored 1.00 in terms of DEA-BCC yield. The MPI analysis showed that Hainan ranked the highest five-year average in the included provinces. In terms of resource utilization, internal management, operation scale, and other aspects, the nursing homes in the provinces with high-efficiency evaluation results show high efficiency and technological progress, whereas the areas with low-efficiency evaluation showed a feature of the improving technical efficiency.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.67-75
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• 2021

The structure of universities needs to be adjusted and reformed to cope with the decrease in admission resources and the quality of education due to the low birth rate and aging population. Such a policy is receiving much attention. To analyze the relative efficiency of private universities in Korea from the perspective of resource and performance, this study evaluated the efficiency of private university operation by applying a DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) technique. The DEA measurements were compared with the diagnosis results of the department of education (Government) in 2018. The input and output variables used in the research analysis were utilized by the university's notification materials (public disclosure information). An analysis of the operational efficiency showed that 48% (12 universities) of the 25 DMUs (Decision Making Unit) were efficient for DEA-BCC models and that some of the capacity-building universities were operating efficiently. In addition, the DEA analysis found ways to improve inefficient groups through DEA-Additive results. This paper can be meaningful because it confirmed the relative efficiency of private universities and suggested improvement directions through the DEA method, which is characterized by the simultaneous consideration of various input and output factors. This will help apply the limited resources related to the input and output elements of each university.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.63-70
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• 2003

Objectives : To investigate the prevalence of cognitive impairment and dementia in elderly people, aged 65 or above, residing in Busan Metropolitan City. Methods : Total of 1,101 old people, aged 65 or above, living in Busan as of December 31, 2001 were selected using stratified three-stage cluster sampling. Cognitive impairment was determined from the MMSE-K score, and dementia confirmed from five psychometric measures and the Barthel index. The crude prevalence, sex-age adjusted for the Korean population, were obtained. Results : With the cut-off point for cognitive impairment was set at 24 points, or below, on the MMSE-K scale, the crude rate of cognitive impairment was 29.3% (15.7% for men and 37.5% for women), and the sex-age adjusted prevalence was 30.5% (17.5% for men and 37.0% for women). When the cut-off point for cognitive impairment was set at 20 points, or below, on the MMSE-K scale, the crude rate of cognitive impairments were 10.0% (4.1% for men and 13.5% for women), and 10.6% (4.7% for men and 13.1% for women), respectively. The crude dementia, and the sex-age adjusted rates were 7.4% (2.4% for men and 10.5% for women), and 8.0% (2.7% for men and 10.0% for women), respectively. Conclusions : The prevalence of dementia in this study was somewhat lower than that reported by other domestic and foreign studies. Our results related to the difference in time and space, diagnostic tools, response rates, and distribution of male and female subjects, etc.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.553-565
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• 2016

Population aging has been an increasing social issue and the elderly health has become one of the most urgent public attentions in Korea. The aims of this paper are to compare the subjective health status according to the personal characteristics, social networks, and daily leisure activities of the urban-rural elderly, and to analyze the influencing factors of their subjective health status. Using 2011 elderly survey data, ordered logit Model was established to extract influencing factors of the elderly health status. The results show that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individual as well as frequent social contacts and daily activities within neighborhood environments influence the level of health status of the elderly. The most significant factors affecting the elderly health are personal economic conditions such as the education achievement level and household income. The elderly who visit an elderly welfare center in Seoul has almost 1.82 times higher odds of increasing health status level than not to visit an elderly welfare center. This study may give some important policy implications of the elderly health promotion strategy in urban-rural communities.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.345-352
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• 2019

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting the length of stay in elderly pediatric inpatients in traffic accidents. We used Korean National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury data on the discharged from 2012 to 2016. Statistically significant factors affecting the length of stay are admission route, Charlson Comorbidity Index(CCI), injury parts, operation, results, hospital area, and beds for hospitals. The length of stay was shorter in the case of the admission route of the outpatient department than the emergency room, the results were not improved or death rather than improved, and the bed size was 500-999 beds or over 1000 beds rather than 100-299 beds. However, the length of stay was longer in the case of CCI score was 1-2 or over 3 rather than 0, injury parts were other parts rather than head/neck, when the operation was yes, and when the hospital area was a province, metropolitan rather than Seoul. This study intends to understand the medical characteristics of inpatient to prevent pedestrian traffic accidents in accordance with the population aging. Based on this finding, we wish to be used as the basic data for the establishment of policies to effectively manage traffic safety and medical resources in consideration of the characteristics of the elderly people.

• Journal of Appropriate Technology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.163-173
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• 2020

For the successful execution of an ODA project, it is necessary to know what areas are weak and necessary to the country of demand exactly. The health sector is also a top priority in most of developing countries. This study was carried out to introduce non-communicable disease (NCD) in Fiji for ODA projects planning. The major causes of death in Fiji in 2016 are diabetes, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infect, asthma in ranking. The major causes of death in Korea in same year are cancer, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia, suicide, diabetes in the order of ranking. The chronic disease as non-communicable disease (NCD) has been increasing continuously due to changes in lifestyle and consumption patterns and population aging in prevalence rate. This global trend is also apparent in Fiji and Korea, reflected in increasing mortality and personal costs for the treatment and management of NCD. The need for a sustained comprehensive treatment tailored for individual patients has suggested from many studies and the development of a systematic program to manage NCD patients to provide such care have been recommended. The Fiji government developed Non-communicable Diseases Strategic Plan 2015-2019 and has tried to reduce the prevalence rate of non-communicable diseases by factors. The WHO global action plan guiding national-level NCD policies requires an NCD prevention and control model at the community level, presenting strategic goals and detailed options for the introduction and application of the approach to communities. It is necessary to develop an NCD prevention and control model, consisting of a strategy of community intervention, education for students and NCD patients, and the legal enactment of NCD that adequately meets the needs of community members.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.15-31
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• 2024

The characteristics of elderly traffic accidents were identified by reflecting the situation of the elderly population in Korea, which is entering an ultra-aging society, and the relationship between independent and dependent variables was analyzed by classifying traffic accidents of serious or higher and traffic accidents of minor or lower in elderly pedestrian traffic accidents using binomial variables. Data collection, processing, and variable selection were performed by acquiring data from the elderly pedestrian traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) for the past 10 years (from 13 to 22 years), and basic statistics and analysis by accident factors were performed. A total of 15 influencing variables were derived by applying the logistic regression model, and the influencing variables that have the greatest influence on the probability of a traffic accident involving severe or higher elderly pedestrians were derived. After that, statistical tests were performed to analyze the suitability of the logistic model, and a method for predicting the probability of a traffic accident according to the construction of a prediction model was presented.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.685-701
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• 2015

The low fertility rate and the unprecedented rapid pace of population aging is a significant factor degrading the national competitiveness and the social security system of Korea. The government has implemented various maternity incentives to alleviate the low birth problem; however, the policy seems in effective to solve the problem of low fertility. This study proposes a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate and investigates the policy effects of fertility transition in Korea to provide a basis for more effective policy development. The use of a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate allows for an effective calculation of the change and the effect in total fertility rate than a birth-order specific fertility rate. We compare the effects of the total fertility rate according to various scenarios that enables us to calculate how the total fertility rate can achieve the current multi-child childbirth support policy of the government and estimate how the total fertility rate can be achieved when focusing on the first or second childbirth support policy. We also summarize the research results on policy development for a practical increase in the childbirth that considers the rapid decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years) due to continued low fertility and present the number of childbirths in accordance with the total fertility rate.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.231-244
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• 2020

Background: As the population is aging, chronic diseases and depression are becoming the main problems in a country's healthcare system. In this study, we aimed to explore the associations between chronic diseases and depression among the elderly in South Korea. Methods: We analyzed 9,975 (men, 4,147; women, 5,828) respondents obtained from the 2014 National Survey of Living Conditions and Welfare Needs of Korean Older Persons. Our dependent variable was either 1 or 0 according to whether a respondent had depression or not, where depression was defined when the Short Form of Geriatric Depression Scale score was 8 or more points. Variables of interest were 24 types of chronic diseases and covariates included various socio-demographic and health behavior characteristics. We performed Rao-Scott chi-square tests and hierarchal logistic regression analyses by gender, reflecting the characteristics of the survey. Results: A significant difference was found in the proportion of having depression between genders (men 18.9% vs. women 23.4%). According to fully adjusted, multivariable analyses, for elderly men, relative to those without any chronic disease, the odds ratio of depression was 1.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.22) in the stroke patients group and 1.82 (95% CI, 1.01-3.25) in the osteoporosis patients group. For elderly women, the odds ratio was 1.96 (95% CI, 1.28-3.00) in the fracture/dislocation and aftereffects patients group and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.03-1.64) in the group of patients with other diseases. Conclusion: Even after being adjusted for diverse characteristics, some chronic diseases were significantly associated with depression in the elderly and the association differed between genders. Therefore, public health and medical interventions are needed to manage such chronic diseases together with curing depression symptoms.