• Title/Summary/Keyword: accurate prediction

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Electrical resistivity tomography survey for prediction of anomaly in mechanized tunneling

  • Lee, Kang-Hyun;Park, Jin-Ho;Park, Jeongjun;Lee, In-Mo;Lee, Seok-Won
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2019
  • Anomalies and/or fractured grounds not detected by the surface geophysical and geological survey performed during design stage may cause significant problems during tunnel excavation. Many studies on prediction methods of the ground condition ahead of the tunnel face have been conducted and applied in tunneling construction sites, such as tunnel seismic profiling and probe drilling. However, most such applications have focused on the drill and blast tunneling method. Few studies have been conducted for mechanized tunneling because of the limitation in the available space to perform prediction tests. This study aims to predict the ground condition ahead of the tunnel face in TBM tunneling by using an electrical resistivity tomography survey. It compared the characteristics of each electrode array and performed an investigation on in-situ tunnel boring machine TBM construction site environments. Numerical simulations for each electrode array were performed, to determine the proper electrode array to predict anomalies ahead of the tunnel face. The results showed that the modified dipole-dipole array is, compared to other arrays, the best for predicting the location and condition of an anomaly. As the borehole becomes longer, the measured data increase accordingly. Therefore, longer boreholes allow a more accurate prediction of the location and status of anomalies and complex grounds.

Development and Comparison of Data Mining-based Prediction Models of Building Fire Probability

  • Hong, Sung-gwan;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2018
  • A lot of manpower and budgets are being used to prevent fires, and only a small portion of the data generated during this process is used for disaster prevention activities. This study develops a prediction model of fire occurrence probability based on data mining in order to more actively use these data for disaster prevention activities. For this purpose, variables for predicting fire occurrence probability of various buildings were selected and data of construction administrative system, national fire information system, and Korea Fire Insurance Association were collected and integrated data set was constructed. After appropriate data cleansing and preprocessing, various data mining methodologies such as artificial neural network, decision trees, SVM, and Naive Bayesian were used to develop a prediction model of the fire occurrence probability of buildings. The most accurate model among the derived models is Linear SVM model which shows 68.42% as experimental data and 63.54% as verification data and it is the best model to predict fire occurrence probability of buildings. As this study develops the prediction model which uses only the set values of the specific ranges, future studies may explore more opportunites to use various setting values not shown in this study.

Forecasting performance and determinants of household expenditure on fruits and vegetables using an artificial neural network model

  • Kim, Kyoung Jin;Mun, Hong Sung;Chang, Jae Bong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.769-782
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    • 2020
  • Interest in fruit and vegetables has increased due to changes in consumer consumption patterns, socioeconomic status, and family structure. This study determined the factors influencing the demand for fruit and vegetables (strawberries, paprika, tomatoes and cherry tomatoes) using a panel of Rural Development Administration household-level purchases from 2010 to 2018 and compared the ability to the prediction performance. An artificial neural network model was constructed, linking household characteristics with final food expenditure. Comparing the analysis results of the artificial neural network with the results of the panel model showed that the artificial neural network accurately predicted the pattern of the consumer panel data rather than the fixed effect model. In addition, the prediction for strawberries was found to be heavily affected by the number of families, retail places and income, while the prediction for paprika was largely affected by income, age and retail conditions. In the case of the prediction for tomatoes, they were greatly affected by age, income and place of purchase, and the prediction for cherry tomatoes was found to be affected by age, number of families and retail conditions. Therefore, a more accurate analysis of the consumer consumption pattern was possible through the artificial neural network model, which could be used as basic data for decision making.

Prediction of Electric Power on Distribution Line Using Machine Learning and Actual Data Considering Distribution Plan (배전계획을 고려한 실데이터 및 기계학습 기반의 배전선로 부하예측 기법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Junhyuk;Lee, Byung-Sung
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2021
  • In terms of distribution planning, accurate electric load prediction is one of the most important factors. The future load prediction has manually been performed by calculating the maximum electric load considering loads transfer/switching and multiplying it with the load increase rate. In here, the risk of human error is inherent and thus an automated maximum electric load forecasting system is required. Although there are many existing methods and techniques to predict future electric loads, such as regression analysis, many of them have limitations in reflecting the nonlinear characteristics of the electric load and the complexity due to Photovoltaics (PVs), Electric Vehicles (EVs), and etc. This study, therefore, proposes a method of predicting future electric loads on distribution lines by using Machine Learning (ML) method that can reflect the characteristics of these nonlinearities. In addition, predictive models were developed based on actual data collected at KEPCO's existing distribution lines and the adequacy of developed models was verified as well. Also, as the distribution planning has a direct bearing on the investment, and amount of investment has a direct bearing on the maximum electric load, various baseline such as maximum, lowest, median value that can assesses the adequacy and accuracy of proposed ML based electric load prediction methods were suggested.

Short-Term Prediction Model of Postal Parcel Traffic based on Self-Similarity (자기 유사성 기반 소포우편 단기 물동량 예측모형 연구)

  • Kim, Eunhye;Jung, Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.76-83
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    • 2020
  • Postal logistics organizations are characterized as having high labor intensity and short response times. These characteristics, along with rapid change in mail volume, make load scheduling a fundamental concern. Load analysis of major postal infrastructures such as post offices, sorting centers, exchange centers, and delivery stations is required for optimal postal logistics operation. In particular, the performance of mail traffic forecasting is essential for optimizing the resource operation by accurate load analysis. This paper addresses a traffic forecast problem of postal parcel that arises at delivery stations of Korea Post. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a method for predicting short-term traffic of postal parcel based on self-similarity analysis and to introduce an application of the traffic prediction model to postal logistics system. The proposed scheme develops multiple regression models by the clusters resulted from feature engineering and individual models for delivery stations to reinforce prediction accuracy. The experiment with data supplied by main postal delivery stations shows the advantage in terms of prediction performance. Comparing with other technique, experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy up to 45.8%.

Accurate Wind Speed Prediction Using Effective Markov Transition Matrix and Comparison with Other MCP Models (Effective markov transition matrix를 이용한 풍속예측 및 MCP 모델과 비교)

  • Kang, Minsang;Son, Eunkuk;Lee, Jinjae;Kang, Seungjin
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents an effective Markov transition matrix (EMTM), which will be used to calculate the wind speed at the target site in a wind farm to accurately predict wind energy production. The existing MTS prediction method using a Markov transition matrix (MTM) exhibits a limitation where significant prediction variations are observed owing to random selection errors and its bin width. The proposed method selects the effective states of the MTM and refines its bin width to reduce the error of random selection during a gap filling procedure in MTS. The EMTM reduces the level of variation in the repeated prediction of wind speed by using the coefficient of variations and range of variations. In a case study, MTS exhibited better performance than other MCP models when EMTM was applied to estimate a one-day wind speed, by using mean relative and root mean square errors.

Artificial Neural Network Supported Prediction of Magnetic Properties of Bulk Metallic Glasses (인공신경망을 이용한 벌크 비정질 합금 소재의 포화자속밀도 예측 성능평가)

  • Chunghee Nam
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.273-278
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    • 2023
  • In this study, based on the saturation magnetic flux density experimental values (Bs) of 622 Fe-based bulk metallic glasses (BMGs), regression models were applied to predict Bs using artificial neural networks (ANN), and prediction performance was evaluated. Model performance evaluation was investigated by using the F1 score together with the coefficient of determination (R2 score), which is mainly used in regression models. The coefficient of determination can be used as a performance indicator, since it shows the predicted results of the saturation magnetic flux density of full material datasets in a balanced way. However, the BMG alloy contains iron and requires a high saturation magnetic flux density to have excellent applicability as a soft magnetic material, and in this study F1 score was used as a performance indicator to better predict Bs above the threshold value of Bs (1.4 T). After obtaining two ANN models optimized for the R2 and F1 score conditions, respectively, their prediction performance was compared for the test data. As a case study to evaluate the prediction performance, new Fe-based BMG datasets that were not included in the training and test datasets were predicted using the two ANN models. The results showed that the model with an excellent F1 score achieved a more accurate prediction for a material with a high saturation magnetic flux density.

Real-time modeling prediction for excavation behavior

  • Ni, Li-Feng;Li, Ai-Qun;Liu, Fu-Yi;Yin, Honore;Wu, J.R.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.643-654
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    • 2003
  • Two real-time modeling prediction (RMP) schemes are presented in this paper for analyzing the behavior of deep excavations during construction. The first RMP scheme is developed from the traditional AR(p) model. The second is based on the simplified Elman-style recurrent neural networks. An on-line learning algorithm is introduced to describe the dynamic behavior of deep excavations. As a case study, in-situ measurements of an excavation were recorded and the measured data were used to verify the reliability of the two schemes. They proved to be both effective and convenient for predicting the behavior of deep excavations during construction. It is shown through the case study that the RMP scheme based on the neural network is more accurate than that based on the traditional AR(p) model.

Whole Frame Error Concealment with an Adaptive PU-based Motion Vector Extrapolation for HEVC

  • Kim, Seounghwi;Lee, Dongkyu;Oh, Seoung-Jun
    • IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2015
  • Most video services are transmitted in wireless networks. In a network environment, a packet of video is likely to be lost during transmission. For this reason, numerous error concealment (EC) algorithms have been proposed to combat channel errors. On the other hand, most existing algorithms cannot conceal the whole missing frame effectively. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a new Adaptive Prediction Unit-based Motion Vector Extrapolation (APMVE) algorithm to restore the entire missing frame encoded by High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC). In each missing HEVC frame, it uses the prediction unit (PU) information of the previous frame to adaptively decide the size of a basic unit for error concealment and to provide a more accurate estimation for the motion vector in that basic unit than can be achieved by any other conventional method. The simulation results showed that it is highly effective and significantly outperforms other existing frame recovery methods in terms of both objective and subjective quality.

Bioinformatic approaches for the structure and function of membrane proteins

  • Nam, Hyun-Jun;Jeon, Jou-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Uk
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.42 no.11
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    • pp.697-704
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    • 2009
  • Membrane proteins play important roles in the biology of the cell, including intercellular communication and molecular transport. Their well-established importance notwithstanding, the high-resolution structures of membrane proteins remain elusive due to difficulties in protein expression, purification and crystallization. Thus, accurate prediction of membrane protein topology can increase the understanding of membrane protein function. Here, we provide a brief review of the diverse computational methods for predicting membrane protein structure and function, including recent progress and essential bioinformatics tools. Our hope is that this review will be instructive to users studying membrane protein biology in their choice of appropriate bioinformatics methods.