• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2020

Recently, a heavy rainfall with high spatial variation occurred frequently in the Korean Peninsula. The meteorological event that occurred in Busan on 3 May 2016 is characterized by heavy rain in a limited area. In order to clarify the reason of large spatial variation associated with mountain height and location of low level jet, several numerical experiments were carried out using the dynamic meteorological Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In this case study, the raised topography of Mount Geumjeong increased a barrier effect and air uplifting due to topographic forcing on the windward side. As a result, wind speed reduced and precipitation increased. In contrast, on the downwind side, the wind speed was slightly faster and since the total amount of water vapor is limited, the precipitation on the downwind side reduced. Numerical experiments on shifting the location of the lower jet demonstrated that if the lower jet is close to the mountain, its core becomes higher due to the effect of friction. Additionally, the water vapor convergence around the mountain increased and eventually the precipitation also increased in the area near the mountain. Hence, the location information of the lower jet is an important factor for accurately predicting precipitation.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.158-169
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• 2004

A method for predicting the short-term dynamic line ratings in overhead transmission lines using real-time weather forecast data is proposed in this paper. Through some inspections for the 3-hour interval forecasting factors such as ambient temperature, wind speed grade and weather code given by KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration), correlation properties between forecast weather data and actual measured data are analyzed. To use these variable in determining the dynamic line ratings, they are changed into suitable numerical values. Furthermore adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems to improve reliabilities for wind speed and solar heat radiation ate designed It was verified that the forecast weather data can be used to predict the line rating with reliable. As a result it can be possible that the proposed predicting system can be effectively utilized by their anticipation a short-time in advance.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.63-77
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• 2022

Our aim was to reduce estimation errors of a wind velocity model used as an early warning system for weather risk management in the agricultural sector. The Rural Development Administration (RDA) agricultural weather observation network's wind velocity data and its corresponding estimated data from January to December 2020 were used to calculate linear regression equations (Y = aX + b). In each linear regression, the wind estimation error at 87 points and eight time slots per day (00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09.00, 12.00, 15.00, 18.00, and 21:00) is the dependent variable (Y), while the estimated wind velocity is the independent variable (X). When the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5, the regression equation was used as the wind velocity correction equation. In contrast, when the correlation coefficient was less than 0.5, the mean error (ME) at the corresponding points and time slots was substituted as the correction value instead of the regression equation. To enable the use of wind velocity model at a national scale, a distribution map with a grid resolution of 250 m was created. This objective was achieved b y performing a spatial interpolation with an inverse distance weighted (IDW) technique using the regression coefficients (a and b), the correlation coefficient (R), and the ME values for the 87 points and eight time slots. Interpolated grid values for 13 weather observation points in rural areas were then extracted. The wind velocity estimation errors for 13 points from January to December 2019 were corrected and compared with the system's values. After correction, the mean ME of the wind velocities reduced from 0.68 m/s to 0.45 m/s, while the mean RMSE reduced from 1.30 m/s to 1.05 m/s. In conclusion, the system's wind velocities were overestimated across all time slots; however, after the correction model was applied, the overestimation reduced in all time slots, except for 15:00. The ME and RMSE improved b y 33% and 19.2%, respectively. In our system, the warning for wind damage risk to crops is driven by the daily maximum wind speed derived from the daily mean wind speed obtained eight times per day. This approach is expected to reduce false alarms within the context of strong wind risk, by reducing the overestimation of wind velocities.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.6_1
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• pp.1069-1080
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• 2022

The tropospheric ozone is a pollutant that causes a great deal of damage to humans and ecosystems worldwide. In the event that ozone moves downwind from its source, a localized problem becomes a regional and global problem. To enhance ozone monitoring efficiency, geostationary satellites with continuous diurnal observations have been developed. The objective of this study is to derive the Tropospheric Ozone Movement Vector (TOMV) by employing continuous observations of tropospheric ozone from geostationary satellites for the first time in the world. In the absence of Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Satellite (GEMS) tropospheric ozone observation data, the GEOS-Chem model calculated values were used as synthetic data. Comparing TOMV with GEOS-Chem, the TOMV algorithm overestimated wind speed, but it correctly calculated wind direction represented by pollution movement. The ozone influx can also be calculated using the calculated ozone movement speed and direction multiplied by the observed ozone concentration. As an alternative to a backward trajectory method, this approach will provide better forecasting and analysis by monitoring tropospheric ozone inflow characteristics on a continuous basis. However, if the boundary of the ozone distribution is unclear, motion detection may not be accurate. In spite of this, the TOMV method may prove useful for monitoring and forecasting pollution based on geostationary environmental satellites in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.195-204
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• 2016

In this paper, the applicability and usefulness of windprofiler input data were investigated to generate three dimensional wind field. A logical diagnostic model CALMET with windprofiler data at ten sites and with weather forecasting model WRF output was evaluated by statistically comparing with the radiosonde data at eight sites. The horizontal wind speed from CALMET simulated with hourly windprofiler data is in good agreement with radiosonde observations within 1.5 m/s of the root mean square error, especially local circulation of wind such as sea breeze over the coastal region. The root mean square error of wind direction ranged $50^{\circ}{\sim}70^{\circ}$ is due to the wind direction error from the windprofiler polluted by ground clutters. Since the exact wind can be produced quickly and accurately in most of the altitude with windprofiler data on CALMET, we expect the method presented in this study to be useful for the monitoring of safe environment as well as weather in the coastal zone.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.221-236
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• 2020

The Gangneung region has the complicated geographical characteristics being adjacent to East Sea and Taeback mountains, and thus sea breeze could play an important role in local weather in various aspects. This study aims to understand overall characteristics of sea breeze largely based on long-term (2009~2018) ground-based observation data. We also propose a selection criteria of sea breeze occurrence day; 1) daily precipitation is less than 10 mm, 2) surface wind direction is 0~110° (northerly to easterly) for more than 3 hours during the daytime, 3) wind direction is 110~360° for more than 3 hours during the nighttime, and 4) land and sea temperature difference is positive during the daytime, 5) sea and land sea-level pressure difference is more than 0.5 hPa. As a result, a total of 595 days was selected for the past 10 years. The occurrence of sea breeze is the highest in late Spring to early Summer (May to June). The passage time of sea breeze at the inland station (1.6 km farther inland) is one hour later than the coastal station. On the typical sea breeze event of April 12, 2019, the passage speed and duration of sea breeze was 15 km hr^-1 and about 9 hours, respectively, with its depth of about 500 m and its head swelling. The current results emphasize the critical role of sea breeze in forecasting surface temperature and wind, and contribute to relieve heat wave especially in summer in the Yeongdong region.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2016

Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.

• Journal of agriculture & life science
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

A forest fire was one of the huge disasters and damaged human lifes and a properties. Therefore, many countries operated forest fire forecasting systems which developed from forest fire records, weather data, fuel models and etc. And many countries also estimated future state of forest fire using a long-term climate forecasting like GCMs and prepared resources for future huge disasters. In this study, we analyzed relationships between forest fire occurrence and meteorological factors (the minimum temperature ($^{\circ}C$), the relative humidity (%), the precipitation (mm), the duration of sunshine (hour) and etc.) for developing a estimating tools, which could forecast forest fire regime under future climate change condition. Results showed that forest fires in this area were mainly occurred when the maximum temperature was $10{\sim}200^{\circ}C$, when the relative humidity was 40~60%, and when the average wind speed was under 2m/s. And forest fires mainly occurred at 2~3 day after rainfall.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.149-162
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• 2022

This study investigated the prediction skill of the Asian dust seasonal forecasting model (GloSea5-ADAM) on the Asian dust and meteorological variables related to the dust generation for the period of 1991~2016. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction skill of those variables depending on the combination of the initial dates in the sub-seasonal scale for the dust source region affecting South Korea. The Asian dust and meteorological variables (10 m wind speed, 1.5 m relative humidity, and 1.5 m air temperature) from GloSea5-ADAM were compared to that from Synoptic observation and European Centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis v5, respectively, based on Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) as evaluation criteria. In general, the Asian dust and meteorological variables in the source region showed high ACC in the prediction scale within one month. For all variables, the use of the initial dates closest to the prediction month led to the best performances based on MBE, RMSE, and ACC, and the performances could be improved by adjusting the number of ensembles considering the combination of the initial date. ACC was as high as 0.4 in Spring when using the closest two initial dates. In particular, the GloSea5-ADAM shows the best performance of Asian dust generation with an ACC of 0.60 in the occurrence frequency of Asian dust in March when using the closest initial dates for initial conditions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

As increasing global interest in renewable energy due to the ongoing climate crisis, there is a growing need for efficient technologies to manage such resources. This study focuses on the predictive skill of daily solar power generation using weather observation and forecast data. Meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and solar power generation data from the Korea Power Exchange were utilized for the period from January 2017 to May 2023, considering both inland (Daejeon) and coastal (Busan) regions. Temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation were selected as relevant meteorological variables for solar power prediction. All data was preprocessed by removing their systematic components to use only their residuals and the residual of solar data were further processed with weighted adjustments for homoscedasticity. Four models, MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), RF (Random Forest), DNN (Deep Neural Network), and RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), were employed for solar power prediction and their performances were evaluated based on predicted values utilizing observed meteorological data (used as a reference), 1-day-ahead forecast data (referred to as fore1), and 2-day-ahead forecast data (fore2). DNN-based prediction model exhibits superior performance in both regions, with RNN performing the least effectively. However, MLR and RF demonstrate competitive performance comparable to DNN. The disparities in the performance of the four different models are less pronounced than anticipated, underscoring the pivotal role of fitting models using residuals. This emphasizes that the utilized preprocessing approach, specifically leveraging residuals, is poised to play a crucial role in the future of solar power generation forecasting.