• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wind prediction

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Optimization of SWAN Wave Model to Improve the Accuracy of Winter Storm Wave Prediction in the East Sea

  • Son, Bongkyo;Do, Kideok
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.273-286
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, as human casualties and property damage caused by hazardous waves have increased in the East Sea, precise wave prediction skills have become necessary. In this study, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) third-generation numerical wave model was calibrated and optimized to enhance the accuracy of winter storm wave prediction in the East Sea. We used Source Term 6 (ST6) and physical observations from a large-scale experiment conducted in Australia and compared its results to Komen's formula, a default in SWAN. As input wind data, we used Korean Meteorological Agency's (KMA's) operational meteorological model called Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts' newest 5th generation re-analysis data (ERA5), and Japanese Meteorological Agency's (JMA's) meso-scale forecasting data. We analyzed the accuracy of each model's results by comparing them to observation data. For quantitative analysis and assessment, the observed wave data for 6 locations from KMA and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) were used, and statistical analysis was conducted to assess model accuracy. As a result, ST6 models had a smaller root mean square error and higher correlation coefficient than the default model in significant wave height prediction. However, for peak wave period simulation, the results were incoherent among each model and location. In simulations with different wind data, the simulation using ERA5 for input wind datashowed the most accurate results overall but underestimated the wave height in predicting high wave events compared to the simulation using RDAPS and JMA meso-scale model. In addition, it showed that the spatial resolution of wind plays a more significant role in predicting high wave events. Nevertheless, the numerical model optimized in this study highlighted some limitations in predicting high waves that rise rapidly in time caused by meteorological events. This suggests that further research is necessary to enhance the accuracy of wave prediction in various climate conditions, such as extreme weather.

Performance Analysis of the NREL Phase IV Wind Turbine by CFD (CFD에 의한 NREL Phase IV 풍력터빈 성능해석)

  • Kim, Bum-Suk;Kim, Mann-Eung;Lee, Young-Ho
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.03b
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    • pp.652-655
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    • 2008
  • Despite of the laminar-turbulent transition region co-exist with fully turbulence region around the leading edge of an airfoil, still lots of researchers apply to fully turbulence models to predict aerodynamic characteristics. It is well known that fully turbulent model such as standard k-${\varepsilon}$ model couldn't predict the complex stall and the separation behavior on an airfoil accurately, it usually leads to over prediction of the aerodynamic characteristics such as lift and drag forces. So, we apply correlation based transition model to predict aerodynamic performance of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Phase IV wind turbine. And also, compare the computed results from transition model with experimental measurement and fully turbulence results. Results are presented for a range of wind speed, for a NREL Phase IV wind turbine rotor. Low speed shaft torque, power, root bending moment, aerodynamic coefficients of 2D airfoil and several flow field figures results included in this study. As a result, the low speed shaft torque predicted by transitional turbulence model is very good agree with the experimental measurement in whole operating conditions but fully turbulent model(k-${\varepsilon}$) over predict the shaft torque after 7m/s. Root bending moment is also good agreement between the prediction and experiments for most of the operating conditions, especially with the transition model.

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Improvement of Wave Height Mid-term Forecast for Maintenance Activities in Southwest Offshore Wind Farm (서남권 해상풍력단지 유지보수 활동을 위한 중기 파고 예보 개선)

  • Ji-Young Kim;Ho-Yeop Lee;In-Seon Suh;Da-Jeong Park;Keum-Seok Kang
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2023
  • In order to secure the safety of increasing offshore activities such as offshore wind farm maintenance and fishing, IMPACT, a mid-term marine weather forecasting system, was established by predicting marine weather up to 7 days in advance. Forecast data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA), which provides the most reliable marine meteorological service in Korea, was used, but wind speed and wave height forecast errors increased as the leading forecast period increased, so improvement of the accuracy of the model results was needed. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) method, a post-correction method using statistical machine learning, was applied to improve the prediction accuracy of wave height, which is an important factor in forecasting the risk of marine activities. Compared with the observed data, the wave height prediction results by the model before correction for 6 to 7 days ahead showed an RMSE of 0.692 m and R of 0.591, and there was a tendency to underestimate high waves. After correction with the MOS technique, RMSE was 0.554 m and R was 0.732, confirming that accuracy was significantly improved.

Prediction of Low Level Wind Shear Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model at the Jeju International Airport, Korea (고해상도 수치모델을 이용한 제주국제공항 저층급변풍 예측)

  • Kim, Geun-Hoi;Choi, Hee-Wook;Seok, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.88-95
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    • 2021
  • In aviation meteorology, the low level wind shear is defined as a sudden change of head windbelow 1600 feet that can affect the departing and landing of the aircraft. Jeju International Airport is an area where low level wind shear is frequently occurred by Mt. Halla. Forecasting of such wind shear would be useful in providing early warnings to aircraft. In this study, we investigated the performance of statistical downscaling model, called Korea Meteorological Administration Post-processing (KMAP) with a 100 m resolution in forecasting wind shear by the complex terrain. The wind shear forecasts was produced by calculating the wind differences between stations aligned with the runways. Two typical wind shear cases caused by complex terrain are validated by comparing to Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). This has been shown to have a good performance for describing air currents caused by terrain.

Predictions of Local Circulation and Dispersion with Microscale Numerical Model (수치모의를 통한 미세규모 순환과 확산에 대한 예측)

  • 안광득;이용희;장동언;조천호
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2003
  • The prediction of wind field is very important fact in the radioactive and chemical warfare. In spite of advanced numerical weather prediction modelling and computing technology, the high resolution prediction of wind field is limited by the very high integration costs. In this study we coupled the mesoscale numerical model and microscale diagnostic numerical model with minimized integration costs. This coupled model has not only the ability of prediction of high resolution wind field including complex building but also microscale pollutant diffusion fields. For military operation this system can help making a practical and cost-effective decision in a battle field.

A Prediction of Turbulent Characteristics in a Complex Terrain by Linear Theory (선형이론에 의한 복잡지형 내 난류 특성의 예측)

  • Yoon, J.E.;Kyong, N.H.;Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2005
  • The external conditions for estimating dynamic wind loads of wind turbines, such as the turbulence, the extreme wind, the mean velocity gradients and the flow angles, are simulated over GangWon Wind Energy Test Field placed in one of the most complex terrain in Korea. Reference meteorological data has been gathered at a height of 30m from 2003 to 2004 with a ultrasonic anemometer. The absolute value of the spectral energy are simulated and the verification of this prediction has been carried out with comparing to the experimental data. The most desirable place for constructing new wind turbine are resulted as Point 2 and Point 3 due to the lower value of Turbulence Intensity and the higher value of wind resource relatively.

A Study of the Characteristics of Input Boundary Conditions for the Prediction of Urban Air Flow based on Fluid Dynamics (유체 역학 기반 도시 기류장 예측을 위한 입력 경계 바람장 특성 연구)

  • Lee, Tae-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Lee, Hwawoon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.1017-1028
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    • 2016
  • Wind information is one of the major inputs for the prediction of urban air flow using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models. Therefore, the numerical characteristics of the wind data formed at their mother domains should be clarified to predict the urban air flow more precisely. In this study, the formation characteristics of the wind data in the Seoul region were used as the inlet wind information for a CFD based simulation and were analyzed using numerical weather prediction models for weather research and forecasting (WRF). Because air flow over the central part of the Korean peninsula is often controlled not only by synoptic scale westerly winds but also by the westerly sea breeze induced from the Yellow Sea, the westerly wind often dominates the entire Seoul region. Although simulations of wind speed and air temperature gave results that were slightly high and low, respectively, their temporal variation patterns agreed well with the observations. In the analysis of the vertical cross section, the variation of wind speed along the western boundary of Seoul is simpler in a large domain with the highest horizontal resolution as compared to a small domain with the same resolution. A strong convergence of the sea breeze due to precise topography leads to the simplification of the wind pattern. The same tendency was shown in the average vertical profiles of the wind speed. The difference in the simulated wind pattern of two different domains is greater during the night than in the daytime because of atmospheric stability and topographically induced mesoscale forcing.

Setting the scene: CFD and symposium overview

  • Murakami, Shuzo
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.5 no.2_3_4
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2002
  • The present situation of CWE(Computational Wind Engineering) and the papers presented to the CWE 2000 Symposium are reviewed from the following viewpoints; 1) topics treated, 2) utilization of commercial code (software), 3) incompleteness of CWE, 4) remaining research subjects, 5) prediction accuracy, 6) new fields of CWE application, etc. Firstly, new tendencies within CWE applications are indicated. Next, the over-attention being given to the application field and the lack of attention to fundamental problems, including prediction error analysis, are pointed out. Lastly, the future trends of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) applications to wind engineering design are discussed.

Performance Prediction of the Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine in the Fully Non-Axial Flow (완전 비축유동에 있는 수평축 풍력터빈의 성능예측)

  • Yoo, Neung-Soo
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.14
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 1994
  • Up to the present the study on the performance prediction of HAWT was perfomed mainly by assuming the axial flow. So in this paper we aimed at the fully non-axial flow of HAWT. For this purpose, we defined the wind turbine pitch angle in addition to the yaw angle to specify the arbitrary wind direction. And we adopted the Glauert method as the basic analysis method then modified this method suitably for our goal. By comparing the computational results obtained by this modified new Glaurert method with the experimental results, it was proved that our method was a very efficient method.

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Fault prediction of wind turbine and Generation benefit evaluation by using the SVM method (SVM방법을 이용한 풍력발전기 고장 예측 및 발전수익 평가)

  • Shin, Jun-Hyun;Lee, Yun-Seong;Kim, Sung-Yul;Kim, Jin-O
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2014
  • Wind power is one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. The blades length and tower height of wind turbine have been growing steadily in the last 10 years in order to increase the output amount of wind power energy. The amount of wind turbine energy is increased by increasing the capacity of wind turbine, but the costs of preventive, corrective and replacement maintenance are also increased accordingly. Recently, Condition Monitoring System that can repair the fault diagnose and repair of wind turbine in the real-time. However, these system have a problem that cannot predict and diagnose of the fault. In this paper, wind turbine predict methodology is proposed by using the SVM method. In the case study, correlation analysis between wind turbine fault and external environmental factors is performed by using the SVM method.