• 제목/요약/키워드: Wind energy forecast

검색결과 51건 처리시간 0.035초

BESS 기반 마이크로그리드 운영전략 (Operational Strategy for a BESS-based Microgrid)

  • 이하림;전영환
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제64권12호
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    • pp.1666-1672
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    • 2015
  • Small islands are quite adequate places where microgrid system with renewable sources can replace diesel engines as operation costs of diesel engine in most small islands are very high. To get the large amount of renewable energy, the microgrid system has very large capacity of renewable sources. The system with large capacity of renewable sources can meet the case when supplied energy is greater than the load and the fluctuation of source output is very large. The battery energy storage system can be a solution to stabilize the system with large capacity of renewable sources. In this case, BESS can be utilized as a master source for the synchronous operation of all sources including diesel engine, wind turbine and PV. The diesel generators can be used as a backup in case the BESS SOC goes below a certain level. In this paper, we suggest a novel unit commitment of diesel generators and operation schedule of pump for water supply service with the information of wind forecast, PV forecast, and load forecast. The proposed methods has been implemented and tested at the test bed in Gasa-Island.

Status of the technology development of large scale HTS generators for wind turbine

  • Le, T.D.;Kim, J.H.;Kim, D.J.;Boo, C.J.;Kim, H.M.
    • 한국초전도ㆍ저온공학회논문지
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2015
  • Large wind turbine generators with high temperature superconductors (HTS) are in incessant development because of their advantages such as weight and volume reduction and the increased efficiency compared with conventional technologies. In addition, nowadays the wind turbine market is growing in a function of time, increasing the capacity and energy production of the wind farms installed and increasing the electrical power for the electrical generators installed. As a consequence, it is raising the wind power energy contribution for the global electricity demand. In this study, a forecast of wind energy development will be firstly emphasized, then it continue presenting a recent status of the technology development of large scale HTSG for wind power followed by an explanation of HTS wire trend, cryogenics cooling systems concept, HTS magnets field coil stability and other technological parts for optimization of HTS generator design - operating temperature, design topology, field coil shape and level cost of energy, as well. Finally, the most relevant projects and designs of HTS generators specifically for offshore wind power systems are also mentioned in this study.

CFD를 이용한 등가풍속 산정과 대기안정도에 따른 연안풍력단지 발전량 변화 연구 (A Study of Energy Production Change according to Atmospheric Stability and Equivalent Wind Speed in the Offshore Wind Farm using CFD Program)

  • 류건화;김동혁;이화운;박순영;김현구
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2016
  • To predict annual energy production (AEP) accurately in the wind farm where located in Seongsan, Jeju Island, Equivalent wind speed (EQ) which can consider vertical wind shear well than Hub height wind speed (HB) is calculated. AEP is produced by CFD model WindSim from National wind resource map. EQ shows a tendency to be underestimated about 2.7% (0.21 m/s) than HB. The difference becomes to be large at nighttime when wind shear is large. EQ can be also affected by atmospheric stability so that is classified by wind shear exponent (${\alpha}$). AEP is increased by 11% when atmosphere becomes to be stabilized (${\alpha}$ > 0.2) than it is convective (${\alpha}$ < 0.1). However, it is found that extreme wind shear (${\alpha}$ > 0.3) is hazardous for power generation. This results represent that AEP calculated by EQ can provide improved accuracy to short-term wind power forecast and wind resource assessment.

대학교 캠퍼스의 풍력자원 측정 및 분석 (Wind Resource Measurements and Analysis at the University Campus)

  • 윤재옥;김명래
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2008
  • The wind-power among the new and renewable energies uses the wind, a limitless, clean and pure energy which is available at any place. It requires low installation cost compared to the generation of other renewable energies, and is easy to operate, and furthermore, can be automated for operation. Korea has been taking a great deal of interest in the development of renewable energy generating equipment, specifically wind power generation as the nation has a nearly total reliance on imported petroleum. A measuring poll 30m high was installed at a location with an altitude of 142m above the sea level in order to measure and analyze the wind power potentiality at H University's Asan Campus, and the wind velocity and wind direction were measured for 1 year. As for the wind power resource of the area adjacent to Asan campus, the Weibull Distribution coefficient was C=2.68, K =1.29 at H30m. Weibull Distribution coefficient was modified on the basis of compensated wind velocity (=3.1m/s) at H 60m, and the energy density was $42W/m^2$. AEP 223,750 KWh was forecast based on the simulation of an 800KW grade wind turbine. It is considered that the wind power generation has to be studied further in the inland zone with low wind velocity to cope with the possible exhaustion of fossil fuel and ensure a sustainable environmental preservation.

Nonlinear Kalman filter bias correction for wind ramp event forecasts at wind turbine height

  • Xu, Jing-Jing;Xiao, Zi-Niu;Lin, Zhao-Hui
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.393-403
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    • 2020
  • One of the growing concerns of the wind energy production is wind ramp events. To improve the wind ramp event forecasts, the nonlinear Kalman filter bias correction method was applied to 24-h wind speed forecasts issued from the WRF model at 70-m height in Zhangbei wind farm, Hebei Province, China for a two-year period. The Kalman filter shows the remarkable ability of improving forecast skill for real-time wind speed forecasts by decreasing RMSE by 32% from 3.26 m s-1 to 2.21 m s-1, reducing BIAS almost to zero, and improving correlation from 0.58 to 0.82. The bias correction improves the forecast skill especially in wind speed intervals sensitive to wind power prediction. The fact shows that the Kalman filter is especially suitable for wind power prediction. Moreover, the bias correction method performs well under abrupt weather transition. As to the overall performance for improving the forecast skill of ramp events, the Kalman filter shows noticeable improvements based on POD and TSS. The bias correction increases the POD score of up-ramps from 0.27 to 0.39 and from 0.26 to 0.38 for down-ramps. After bias correction, the TSS score is significantly promoted from 0.12 to 0.26 for up-ramps and from 0.13 to 0.25 for down-ramps.

도심 빌딩 옥상에 적용 가능한 풍력발전시스템의 성능 평가 연구 (Performance Evaluation of Vertical Wind Power Generation System Structured on the Downtown Buildings Roof)

  • 나채문;정광섭;김영일;김동혁
    • 한국지열·수열에너지학회논문집
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2016
  • This study had the purpose on feasibility judgment through performance forecast of wind power generation system using the cross flow vertical type wind power turbine for the situation of domestic small size wind power technology development. Wind power generation system uses the principle of venturi tube that gathers the wind through the first guide vane, and second guide vein changes the angle of the wind simultaneously by playing the role of venturi tube. After this, wind got out from the second guide vane spins the wind power turbine and has the meaning of judging on the aspect of numerical interpretation the feasibility for the small size wind power generation through wind power generation system that comes out from the back.

Very Short-Term Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting without Numerical Weather Prediction through the Predictor Design

  • Lee, Duehee;Park, Yong-Gi;Park, Jong-Bae;Roh, Jae Hyung
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.2177-2186
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    • 2017
  • The goal of this paper is to provide the specific forecasting steps and to explain how to design the forecasting architecture and training data sets to forecast very short-term wind power when the numerical weather prediction (NWP) is unavailable, and when the sampling periods of the wind power and training data are different. We forecast the very short-term wind power every 15 minutes starting two hours after receiving the most recent measurements up to 40 hours for a total of 38 hours, without using the NWP data but using the historical weather data. Generally, the NWP works as a predictor and can be converted to wind power forecasts through machine learning-based forecasting algorithms. Without the NWP, we can still build the predictor by shifting the historical weather data and apply the machine learning-based algorithms to the shifted weather data. In this process, the sampling intervals of the weather and wind power data are unified. To verify our approaches, we participated in the 2017 wind power forecasting competition held by the European Energy Market conference and ranked sixth. We have shown that the wind power can be accurately forecasted through the data shifting although the NWP is unavailable.

풍력 터빈 상태 감시 시스템 현황 (The Present State of Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring System)

  • ;;;정재홍;이병준;이창묵
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2005년도 추계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.92-97
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    • 2005
  • The $9 billion US global wind energy market is experiencing dramatic growth with installed generating capacity up 500% from 7,600 MW at the end of 1997 to nearly 39,300 MW at the end of 2003. With an average annual increase approaching 32%, wind is the world's fastest growing energy source on a percentage basis, and its growth is forecast to continue a double-digit pace into the next decade 1. While much of this growth is fueled by government decisions that are favorable to 'green' or renewable Power, it is also fueled by advances in wind turbine technology as evidenced by larger, more sophisticated machines. As a result, wind turbines are becoming more established as an economically viable alternative to fossil-fueled power generation. Today, wind 'farms' - consisting of anywhere from a single turbine to as many as several hundred turbines - are an important component of the world's source of electric energy.

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LSTM 딥러닝 신경망 모델을 이용한 풍력발전단지 풍속 오차에 따른 출력 예측 민감도 분석 (Analysis of wind farm power prediction sensitivity for wind speed error using LSTM deep learning model)

  • 강민상;손은국;이진재;강승진
    • 풍력에너지저널
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.10-22
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    • 2024
  • This research is a comprehensive analysis of wind power prediction sensitivity using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning neural network model, accounting for the inherent uncertainties in wind speed estimation. Utilizing a year's worth of operational data from an operational wind farm, the study forecasts the power output of both individual wind turbines and the farm collectively. Predictions were made daily at intervals of 10 minutes and 1 hour over a span of three months. The model's forecast accuracy was evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and correlation coefficients with actual power output data. Moreover, the research investigated how inaccuracies in wind speed inputs affect the power prediction sensitivity of the model. By simulating wind speed errors within a normal distribution range of 1% to 15%, the study analyzed their influence on the accuracy of power predictions. This investigation provided insights into the required wind speed prediction error rate to achieve an 8% power prediction error threshold, meeting the incentive standards for forecasting systems in renewable energy generation.

영광 해상풍력단지 발전량 예측에 관한 연구 (The Research on the Yeonggwang Offshore Wind Farm Generated Energy Prediction)

  • 정문선;문채주;정권성;최만수;장영학
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • As the wind farms in large scale demand enormous amount of construction cost, minimizing the economic burden is essential and also it is very important to measure the wind resources and forecast annual energy production correctly to judge the economic feasibility of the proposed site by way of installing a Met mast at or nearby the site. Wind resources were measured by installing a 80[m] high Met mast at WangdeungYeo Island to conduct the research incorporated in this paper and offshore wind farm was designed using WindPRO. Wind farm of 100[MW] was designed making use of 3 and 4.5[MW] wind generator at the place selected to compare their annual energy production and capacity factor applying the loss factor of 10[%] and 20[%] respectively to each farm. As a result, 336,599[MWh] was generated by applying 3[MW] wind generator while 358,565 [MWh] was produced by 4.5[MW] wind generator. Difference in the energy production by 3[MW] generator was 33,660 [MWh] according to the loss factor with the difference in its capacity factor by 3.8[%]. On the other hand, 23 units of 4.5 [MW] wind generators showed the difference of annual energy production by 35,857 [MWh] with 4.0[%] capacity factor difference.