• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.2168-2177
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• 2018

The unavoidable forecast error of wind power is one of the biggest obstacles for wind farms to participate in day-ahead electricity market. To mitigate the deviation from forecast, installation of energy storage system (ESS) is considered. An accurate model of wind power forecast error is fundamental for ESS sizing. However, previous study shows that the error distribution has variable kurtosis and fat tails, and insufficient measurement data of wind farms would add to the difficulty of modeling. This paper presents a comprehensive way that makes the use of mixed skewness model (MSM) and copula theory to give a better approximation for the distribution of forecast error, and it remains valid even if the dataset is not so well documented. The model is then used to optimize the ESS power and capacity aiming to pay the minimal extra cost. Results show the effectiveness of the new model for finding the optimal size of ESS and increasing the economic benefit.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.25-33
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• 2023

In order to secure the safety of increasing offshore activities such as offshore wind farm maintenance and fishing, IMPACT, a mid-term marine weather forecasting system, was established by predicting marine weather up to 7 days in advance. Forecast data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA), which provides the most reliable marine meteorological service in Korea, was used, but wind speed and wave height forecast errors increased as the leading forecast period increased, so improvement of the accuracy of the model results was needed. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) method, a post-correction method using statistical machine learning, was applied to improve the prediction accuracy of wave height, which is an important factor in forecasting the risk of marine activities. Compared with the observed data, the wave height prediction results by the model before correction for 6 to 7 days ahead showed an RMSE of 0.692 m and R of 0.591, and there was a tendency to underestimate high waves. After correction with the MOS technique, RMSE was 0.554 m and R was 0.732, confirming that accuracy was significantly improved.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.559-564
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• 2013

In this paper a new hybrid forecast method composed of wavelet transform and neural network is proposed to forecast the wind speed more accurately. In the field of wind energy research, accurate forecast of wind speed is a challenging task. This will influence the power system scheduling and the dynamic control of wind turbine. The wind data used here is measured at 15 minute time intervals. The performance is evaluated based on the metrics, namely, mean square error, mean absolute error, sum squared error of the proposed model and compared with the back propagation model. Simulation studies are carried out and it is reported that the proposed model outperforms the compared model based on the metrics used and conclusions were drawn appropriately.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.1548-1555
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• 2016

This paper presents an application of time series analysis in hourly wind speed simulation and forecast in Jeju Island, Korea. Autoregressive - moving average (ARMA) model, which is well in description of random data characteristics, is used to analyze historical wind speed data (from year of 2010 to 2012). The ARMA model requires stationary variables of data is satisfied by power law transformation and standardization. In this study, the autocorrelation analysis, Bayesian information criterion and general least squares algorithm is implemented to identify and estimate parameters of wind speed model. The ARMA (2,1) models, fitted to the wind speed data, simulate reference year and forecast hourly wind speed in Jeju Island.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.433-438
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• 2020

Accurate forecasting of wind power is important for grid operation. Wind power has intermittent and nonlinear characteristics, which increases the uncertainty in wind power generation. In order to accurately predict wind power generation with high uncertainty, it is necessary to analyze the factors affecting wind power generation. In this paper, 6 factors out of 11 are selected for more accurate wind power generation forecast. These are wind speed, sine value of wind direction, cosine value of wind direction, local pressure, ground temperature, and history data of wind power generated.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.19-27
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• 2015

Technologies of wind power generation for development of alternative energy technology have been accumulated over the past 20 years. Wind power generation is environmentally friendly and economical because it uses the wind blowing in nature as energy resource. In order to operate wind power generation efficiently, it is necessary to accurately predict wind speed changing every moment in nature. It is important not only averagely how well to predict wind speed but also to minimize the largest absolute error between real value and prediction value of wind speed. In terms of generation operating plan, minimizing the largest absolute error plays an important role for building flexible generation operating plan because the difference between predicting power and real power causes economic loss. In this paper, we propose a method of wind speed prediction using numeric prediction algorithm-based wind speed forecast model made to analyze the wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration and pattern value for considering seasonal property of wind speed as well as changing trend of past wind speed. The wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration is the forecast in respect to comparatively wide area including wind generation farm. But it contributes considerably to make accuracy of wind speed prediction high. Also, the experimental results demonstrate that as the rate of wind is analyzed in more detail, the greater accuracy will be obtained.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.305-312
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• 2014

This paper discusses real-time peak shaving algorithms for a large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS). Although several transmission and distribution functions could be implemented for diverse purposes in BESS applications, this paper focuses on a real-time peak shaving algorithm for an energy time shift, considering wind power generation. In a high wind penetration environment, the effective load levels obtained by subtracting the wind generation from the load time series at each long-term cycle time unit are needed for efficient peak shaving. However, errors can exist in the forecast load and wind generation levels, and the real-time peak shaving operation might require a method for wind generation that includes comparatively large forecasting errors. To effectively deal with the errors of wind generation forecasting, this paper proposes a real-time peak shaving algorithm for threshold value-based peak shaving that considers fuzzy wind power generation.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.14-26
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• 2015

A wind speed forecast is a crucial and sophisticated task in a wind farm for planning turbines and corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines in the near future. By production is often meant available power for wind farm considered (with units KW or MW depending on both the wind speed and direction. Such forecasts can also be expressed in terms of energy, by integrating power production over each time interval. In this study, we technically focused on mathematical modeling of wind speed and direction forecast based on locally data set gathered from Aghdasiyeh station in Tehran. The methodology is set on using most common techniques derived from literature review. Hence we applied the most sophisticated forecasting methods to embed seasonality, trend, and irregular pattern for wind speed as an angular variables. Through this research, we carried out the most common techniques such as the Box and Jenkins family, VARMA, the component method, the Weibull function and the Fourier series. Finally, the best fit for each forecasting method validated statistically based on white noise properties and the final comparisons using residual standard errors and mean absolute deviation from real data.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.140-140
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• 2011

Korea's RPS, which requires that power generation companies obtain a minimum percentage of their generation by using renewable energy, will take effect in 2012. Based on the first-year law enforcement, generation companies have to satisfy 2% of RPS compliance ratio in 2012. Then, the required RPS compliance ratio will increase up to 10% in 2022. Thus generation companies need to construct power plants that utilize various types of renewable energy sources such as PV and wind power. This work is aimed to analyze the cost of such a renewable power source in terms of capital cost, capacity factor, and fuel cost. We provide the analytical expectation on the renewable power generation cost of 2012 focusing on PV, onshore/offshore wind, fuel cell, and IGCC, which are focused by government policy.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.983-999
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• 2010

Wind power energy is one of the favorable and fast growing renewable energies. It is most important for exact analysis of wind to evaluate and forecast the wind power energy. The purpose of this study is to improve the performance of numerical atmospheric model by data assimilation over a complex coastal area. The benefit of the profiler is its high temporal resolution and dense observation data at the lower troposphere. Three wind profiler sites used in this study are inhomogeneously situated near south-western coastal area of Korean Peninsula. The method of the data assimilation for using the profiler to the model simulation is the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). The experiment of two cases, with/without assimilation, were conducted for how to effect on model results with wind profiler data. It was found that the assimilated case shows the more reasonable results than the other case compared with vertical observation and surface Automatic Weather Station(AWS) data. Although the effect of sonde data was better than profiler at a higher altitude, the profiler data improves the model performance at lower atmosphere. Comparison with the results of 4 June and 5 June suggests that the efficiency with hourly assimilated profiler data is strongly influenced by synoptic conditions. The reduction rate of Normalized Mean Error(NME), mean bias normalized by averaged wind speed of observation, on 4 June was 28% which was larger than 13% of 5 June. In order to examine the difference in wind power energy, the wind power density(WPD) was calculated and compared.