• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.14-26
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• 2015

A wind speed forecast is a crucial and sophisticated task in a wind farm for planning turbines and corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines in the near future. By production is often meant available power for wind farm considered (with units KW or MW depending on both the wind speed and direction. Such forecasts can also be expressed in terms of energy, by integrating power production over each time interval. In this study, we technically focused on mathematical modeling of wind speed and direction forecast based on locally data set gathered from Aghdasiyeh station in Tehran. The methodology is set on using most common techniques derived from literature review. Hence we applied the most sophisticated forecasting methods to embed seasonality, trend, and irregular pattern for wind speed as an angular variables. Through this research, we carried out the most common techniques such as the Box and Jenkins family, VARMA, the component method, the Weibull function and the Fourier series. Finally, the best fit for each forecasting method validated statistically based on white noise properties and the final comparisons using residual standard errors and mean absolute deviation from real data.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.8-22
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• 2011

Investigations on modeling methods of a CFD wind resource prediction program, WindSim for a ccurate predictions of wind speeds were performed with the field measurements. Meteorological Masts having heights of 40m and 50m were installed at two different sites in complex terrain. The wind speeds and direction were monitored from sensors installed on the masts and recorded for one year. Modeling parameters of WindSim input variables for accurate predictions of wind speeds were investigated by performing cross predictions of wind speeds at the masts using the measured data. Four parameters that most affect the wind speed prediction in WindSim including the size of a topographical map, cell sizes in x and y direction, height distribution factors, and the roughness lengths were studied to find out more suitable input parameters for better wind speed predictions. The parameters were then applied to WindSim to predict the wind speed of another location in complex terrain in Korea for validation. The predicted annual wind speeds were compared with the averaged measured data for one year from meteorological masts installed for this study, and the errors were within 6.9%. The results of the proposed practical study are believed to be very useful to give guidelines to wind engineers for more accurate prediction results and time-saving in predicting wind speed of complex terrain that will be used to predict annual energy production of a virtual wind farm in complex terrain.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.1085-1092
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• 2017

In this paper, we propose a wind forecasting method that reflects wind characteristics to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. The proposed method consists of extracting wind characteristics and predicting power generation. The part that extracts the characteristics of the wind uses correlation analysis of power generation amount, wind direction and wind speed. Based on the correlation between the wind direction and the wind speed, the feature vector is extracted by clustering using the K-means method. In the prediction part, machine learning is performed using the SVR that generalizes the SVM so that an arbitrary real value can be predicted. Machine learning was compared with the proposed method which reflects the characteristics of wind and the conventional method which does not reflect wind characteristics. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method, we used the data collected from three different locations of Jeju Island wind farm. Experimental results show that the error of the proposed method is better than that of general wind power generation.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.319-332
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• 2010

Sensitivity experiments of WRF model using different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) parameterizations are evaluated for prediction of wind fields within the surface layer. The experiments were performed with three PBL schemes (YSU, Pleim, MYJ) in combination with three land surface models (Noah, RUC, Pleim). The WRF model was conducted on a nested grid from 27-km to 1-km horizontal resolution. The simulations validated wind speed and direction at 10 m and 80 m above ground level at a 1-km spatial resolution over the South Korea. Statistical verification results indicate that Pleim and YSU PBL schemes are in good agreement with observations at 10 m above ground level, while the MYJ scheme produced predictions similar to the observed wind speed at 80 m above ground level. LSM comparisons indicate that the RUC model performs best in predicting 10-m and 80-m wind speed. It is found that MYJ (PBL) - RUC (LSM) simulations yielded the best results for wind field in the surface layer. The choice of PBL and LSM parameterization will contribute to more accurate wind predictions for air quality studies and wind power using WRF.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.545-559
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• 2000

A Wind and Structural Health Monitoring System (WASHMS) has been installed in the Tsing Ma suspension Bridge in Hong Kong with one of the objectives being the verification of analytical processes used in wind-resistant design. On 2 August 1997, Typhoon Victor just crossed over the Bridge and the WASHMS timely recorded both wind and structural response. The measurement data are analysed in this paper to obtain the mean wind speed, mean wind direction, mean wind inclination, turbulence intensity, integral scale, gust factor, wind spectrum, and the acceleration response and natural frequency of the Bridge. It is found that some features of wind structure and bridge response are difficult to be considered in the currently used analytical process for predicting buffeting response of long suspension bridges, for the Bridge is surrounded by a complex topography and the wind direction of Typhoon Victor changes during its crossing. It seems to be necessary to improve the prediction model so that a reasonable comparison can be performed between the measurement and prediction for long suspension bridges in typhoon prone regions.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.318-323
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• 2014

When a disabled ship is being towed in a seaway, the speed and direction of the towed ship are estimated by using the towing force and direction of the selected tug boats at the predicted sea conditions including the wind and currents. In this paper, prediction method at the towing conditions of the various towing operations for a disabled ship are studied. The proposed calculation method suggests firstly the method to import the speed and resistance of the forward direction of the towed ship calculated by the existing computer program, second, the method to calculate the speed and resistance of the towed direction of the towed ship acquired from the selected tug boats at the initial towing conditions and lastly, the method to calculate the speed and resistance of the towed direction for the towed ship at the stable towing conditions. These calculation methods have been applied to the computer program and this program has been approved to be a useful program, capable of appropriately predicting the towed ship's conditions.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.203-212
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• 2023

Directional felling is a felling method practised by the Forestry Department in Peninsular Malaysia as prescribed in Field Work Manual (1997) for Selective Management Systems (SMS) in forest harvesting. Determining the direction of tree felling in Peninsular Malaysia is conducted during the pre-felling inventory 1 to 2 years before the felling operation. This study aimed to predict and analyze the direction of tree felling using the vector-based path distance back link method in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and compare it with the felling direction observed on the ground. The study area is at Balah Forest Reserve, Kelantan, Peninsular Malaysia. A Path Distance Back Link (spatial analyst) function in ArcGIS Pro 3.0 was used in predicting tree felling direction. Meanwhile, a binary classification was used to compare the felling direction estimated using GIS and the tree felling direction observed on the ground. Results revealed that 61.3% of 31 trees predicted using the vector-based projection method were similar to the felling direction observed on the ground. It is important to note that dynamic changes of natural constraints might occur in the middle of tree felling operation, such as weather problems, wind speed, and unpredicted tree falling direction.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

Predictions of wind speed for six different near-shore sites were made using the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) wind data. The distances between the NCAR sites and prediction sites were varied between 40km and 150km. A well-known wind energy prediction program, WindPRO, was used. The prediction results were compared with the measured data from the AWS(Automated Weather Stations). Although the NCAR wind data were located far away from the AWS sites, the prediction errors were within 9% for all the cases. In terms of sector-wise wind energy distributions, the predictions were fairly close to the measurements, and the error in predicting main wind direction was less than $30^{\circ}$. This proves that the NCAR wind data are very useful in roughly estimating wind energy in offshore or near-shore sites where offshore wind farm might be constructed in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.46-53
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• 2010

In this paper the feasibility of wind power forecasting from MOS(Model Output Statistics) was evaluated at Gosan area in Jeju during February to Octoberin 2008. The observed wind data from wind turbine was compared with 24 hours and 48 hours forecasting wind data from MOS predicting. Coefficient of determination of measured wind speed from wind turbine and 24 hours forecasting from MOS was around 0.53 and 48 hours was around 0.30. These determination factors were increased to 0.65 from 0.53 and 0.35 from 0.30, respectively, when it comes to the prevailing wind direction($300^{\circ}\sim60^{\circ}$). Wind power forecasting ratio in 24 hours of MOS showed a value of 0.81 within 70% confidence interval and it also showed 0.65 in 80% confidence interval. It is suggested that the additional study of weather conditions be carried out when large error happened in MOS forecasting.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.477-501
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• 2016

Though hilly topography influences both wind speeds and directions aloft, only the influence on wind speeds, i.e. the speed-up effect, has been thoroughly investigated. Due to the importance of a model showing the spatial variations of wind directions above hilly terrains, it is worthwhile to systematically assess the applicability and limitations of the model describing the influence of hilly topographies on wind directions. Based on wind-tunnel test results, a model, which describes the horizontal and vertical variations of the wind directions separately, has been proposed in a companion paper. CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques were employed in the present paper to evaluate the applicability of the proposed model. From the investigation, it has been found that the model is acceptable for describing the vertical variation of wind directions by a shallow hill whose primary-to-secondary axis ratio (aspect ratio) is larger than 1. When the overall hill slope exceeds $20^{\circ}$, the proposed model should be used with caution. When the aspect ratio is less than 1, the proposed model is less accurate in predicting the spatial variation of wind directions in the wake zone in a separated flow. In addition, it has been found that local slope of a hill has significant impact on the applicability of the proposed model. Specifically, the proposed model is only applicable when local slope of a hill varies gradually from 0 (at the hill foot) to the maximum value (at the mid-slope point) and then to 0 (at the hill top).