• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.67-88
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• 2004

This paper attempts to explore the generic pitfalls of the traditional number-crunching methods adopted thus far for the forecast of newly emerging market trends, and present an alternative by introducingsystems thinking to the portable Internet service market as an example, followed by its rationale as a new tool for forecasting and some reasoning about why traditional methods are no longer appropriate. Most adoption models in general to forecast market trends have several limitations due to theirbasic assumptions and prospective. First, they fail to capture dynamic interactions among the factors involved over time, with implicit assumptions of 'unilateral causality' in that each factor contributes as a cause to the effect, i.e., causality runs one way; each factor acts independently the weighting factor of each is fixed, etc. Second, the number-crunching models have no way of taking into account the impact of delayed feedback often caused by introducing new policies and legislative changes on the whole system under investigation. Third, there is not a way to reflect the effect of competition by players.

• 경영과학
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.67-81
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• 2005

This study aims at defining the factors affecting adoption intentions for portable Internet services based on the characteristics of individuals creating the markets and developing strategies of the service, which is expected to be the next-generation telecommunication service. For this Purpose, two types of sub-factors are defined : characteristics of individuals including demographic statistics, usage of existing services, prior cognition, adoption attitudes and service assessments : and adoption Intentions including willingness for subscription, subscription period, willingness to pay, types of usage and preferred device. The results of the study indicate that demographical statistical variables vary depending upon the levels of adoption intentions, and that users of mobile Internet services via mobile phones and wireless LANs are highly probable of being targets for the portable Internet services. Furthermore, the results demonstrate demands for enhancing recognition of the usefulness and ease of use of the services and intense marketing activities for potential users bearing innovativeness to stimulate the market of the portable Internet service. The author is confident that this study will significantly contribute to the successful market entrance of portable Internet service, and also to growth in the market.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.144-154
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• 2009

국내 기업에서 와이브로는 다른 모바일 브로드밴드 서비스와 달리 전송속도와 기능이 우월하기 때문에 초기 시장부터 핵심시장이 될 것으로 전망되어 왔다. 그러나 서비스의 이용가능지역이 제한되고 기존 유선 인터넷의 인프라가 확충되어 있으며 경쟁서비스인 HSDPA에 대한 차별성 부족으로 인해 기업시장에서도 서비스 확산이 지연되거나 부진한 실정이다. 그러나 와이브로가 기업시장에서 지닌 가능성은 무한하다. 우선 유무선 융합의 최전선에서 모바일 브로드밴드 서비스로 그 역할을 수행할 것으로 기대되며 향후 제4세대 서비스에서 다양한 비즈니스 모델을 통해 차별적이고 이용편의적인 서비스를 제공할 것으로 전망되기 때문이다. 이에 본 글에서는 시장조사 결과를 바탕으로 국내 기업의 와이브로 이용현황과 의향을 파악하고 기업시장 개발을 위한 전략적 방향을 제언하였다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.67-76
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• 2006

This study aims to identify the factors that influence adoption intentions towards portable Internet service, based on the individual characteristics that assist in creating markets and developing strategies. Two types of factors are defined: individual characteristics including demographics, existing services usages, prior knowledge, adoption attitudes, and service evaluations; and adoption intentions including the willingness to subscribe, subscription term, willingness to pay, usage type, and preferred terminal. The results indicate that the importance of demographic variables depends on adoption intentions, and that users of mobile Internet service and wireless LAN are probably targets for portable Internet service. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the need for an enhanced perception of the usefulness and ease of use of service, as well as an intensive marketing activity for potential users and a bearable innovation to stimulate the market for portable Internet service.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2008

Based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), we present a survey method to measure consumer preferences. The multi-attribute utility theory has been used to make decisions in OR/MS field; however, we show that the method can be effectively used to estimate the demand for new services by measuring individual level utility function. Because conjoint method has been widely used to measure consumer preferences for new products and services, we compare the pros and cons of two consumer preference survey methods. Further, we illustrate how swing weighing method can be effectively used to elicit customer preferences especially for new telecommunications services, Multi-attribute utility theory is a compositional approach for modeling customer preference, in which researchers calculate overall service utility by summing up the evaluation results for each attribute. On the contrary, conjoint method is a decompositional approach, which requires holistic evaluations for profiles. Partworth for each attribute is derived or estimated based on the evaluation, and finally consumer preferences for each profile are calculated. However, if the profiles are quite new and unfamiliar to the survey respondents, they will find it very difficult to accurately evaluate the profiles. We believe that the multi-attribute utility theory-based survey method is more appropriate than the conjoint method, because respondents only need to assess attribute level preferences and not holistic assessment. We chose swing weighting method among many weight assessment methods in multi-attribute utility theory, because it is designed to perform in a simple and fast manner. As illustrated in Clemen and Reilly (2001), to assess swing weights, the first step is to create the worst possible outcome as a benchmark by setting the worst level on each of the attributes. Then, each of the succeeding rows "swings" one of the attributes from worst to best. Upon constructing the swing table, respondents rank order the outcomes (rows). The next step is to rate the outcomes in which the rating for the benchmark is set to be 0 and the rating for the best outcome to be 100, and the ratings for other outcomes are determined in the ranges between 0 and 100. In calculating weight for each attribute, ratings are normalized by the total sum of all ratings. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, we elicited and analyzed individual-level customer preference for new telecommunication services-WiBro and HSDPA. We began with a randomly selected 800 interviewees, and reduced them to 432 because other remaining ones were related to the people who did not show strong intention for subscription to new telecommunications services. For each combination of content and handset, number of responses which favored WiBro and HSDPA were counted, respectively. It was assumed that interviewee favors a specific service when expected utility is greater than that of competing service(s). Then, the market share of each service was calculated by normalizing the total number of responses which preferred each service. Holistic evaluation of new and unfamiliar service is a tough challenge for survey respondents. We have developed a simple and easy method to assess individual level preference by estimating weight of each attribute. Swing method was applied for this purpose. We believe that estimating individual level preference will be quite flexibly used to predict market performance of new services in many different business environments.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘텐츠학회 2005년도 추계 종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.210-218
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• 2005

번호이동성을 통하여 고객들은 서비스 품질과 요금체제에 파라 다양한 사업자 선택권이 부여 되며, 이동전화사업자들은 현 가입자 유치 및 품질경쟁에서 실질적인 경쟁개념인 요금경쟁으로 전환이 가능해지므로 국내에서도 번호이동성, 와이브로 사업자 선정 등의 중요한 정책적 이슈들이 마무리 되어가는 시점에서 3G서비스의 활성화를 위한 $2G{\rightarrow}3G$ 간의 번호이동성이 필요한 시점에 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 새롭게 등장하고 있는 3G 이동통신 서비스의 개요와 3G 서비스 활성화를 위한 $2G{\rightarrow}3G$ 간의 번호이동성 도입에 대한 국내외 사례 및 동향 분석, 그리고 국내 시장 상황에 적합한 $2G{\rightarrow}3G$간 번호이동성의 필요성과 도입 방안을 제시하고자 함.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.191-210
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• 2009

정부는 2004년 IT839 전략의 하나로 VoIP를 8대 신규 서비스로 지정하였고, 정부와 일부 사업자에 의해 적극적으로 추진되었다. 인터넷전화는 유선전화와는 달리 이동성이 보장되어 어디서나 인터넷 단말기만 가지고 있으면 인터넷에 연결하여 통화를 할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 각종의 부가서비스(영상통화, 데이터전송, 인터넷접속 등)가 가능하다는 장점과 더불어 이용요금도 이동전화와 유선전화와 비교했을 때 저렴한 편이다. 국내 통신 기업들은 포화된 국내 통신서비스 시장의 새로운 비즈니스모델 창출을 위해 각종의 부가서비스 제공이 가능한 인터넷전화에 주목하고 있고 통신 소비자들은 저렴한 인터넷 전화요금과 우리나라의 가계당 통신비중이 높다는 점, 그리고 각종 부가서비스가 제공되는 인터넷전화의 긍정적 요인에 크게 반응할 것으로 보인다. 현재는 VoIP가 유선전화시장을 급속하게 대체할 것으로 예측되며, 초고속 하향패킷접속과 와이브로(WiBro: Wireless Broadband Internet)기반의 이동통신에서 VoIP가 장착이 된다면 이동전화를 위협하는 Killer Application으로 자리 잡게 될 것으로 보인다. 또한, 이 기술은 단지 음성전화 뿐만 아니라 SMS(Short Message Service), 음성채팅, 영상통화 등의 다양한 부가 서비스가 가능하며 통신.방송의 융합에 따른 방송서비스까지 가능한 실시간 멀티미디어 서비스 제공을 위한 핵심기술이라는 점에서 최근에 더욱 관심이 증폭되고 있다. 결국 인터넷 전화는 기존의 일반전화가 가진 장단점을 모두 흡수하여 새로운 혁신을 가져 올 것으로 예상된다. 향후 인터넷 전화의 발전과 대중화를 위한 발판을 마련하기 위한 후속적 연구가 지속되어야 할 것이다.