• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weighted Prediction

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The Study for Software Future Forecasting Failure Time Using Time Series Analysis. (시계열 분석을 이용한 소프트웨어 미래 고장 시간 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2011
  • Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing, For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offer information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss forecasting failure time case of failure time censoring. In this study, time series analys is used in the simple moving average and weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing method for predict the future failure times, Empirical analysis used interval failure time for the prediction of this model. Model selection using the mean square error was presented for effective comparison.

Electric Vehicle Technology Trends Forecast Research Using the Paper and Patent Data (논문 및 특허 데이터를 활용한 전기자동차 기술 동향 예측 연구)

  • Gu, Ja-Wook;Lee, Jong-Ho;Chung, Myoung-Sug;Lee, Joo-yeoun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze the research / technology trends of electric vehicles from 2001 to 2014, through keyword analysis using paper data published in SCIE or SSCI Journal on electric vehicles, time series analysis using patent data by IPC, and network analysis using nodeXL. also we predicted promising technologies of electric vehicles using one of the prediction methods, weighted moving average method. As a result of this study, battery technology among the electric vehicle component technologies appeared as a promising technology.

Drug Target Protein Prediction using SVM (SVM을 사용한 약물 표적 단백질 예측)

  • Jung, Hwie-Sung;Hyun, Bo-Ra;Jung, Suk-Hoon;Jang, Woo-Hyuk;Han, Dong-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.10b
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    • pp.17-21
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    • 2007
  • Drug discovery is a long process with a low rate of successful new therapeutic discovery regardless of the advances in information technologies. Identification of candidate proteins is an essential step for the drug discovery and it usually requires considerable time and efforts in the drug discovery. The drug discovery is not a logical, but a fortuitous process. Nevertheless, considerable amount of information on drugs are accumulated in UniProt, NCBI, or DrugBank. As a result, it has become possible to try to devise new computational methods classifying drug target candidates extracting the common features of known drug target proteins. In this paper, we devise a method for drug target protein classification by using weighted feature summation and Support Vector Machine. According to our evaluation, the method is revealed to show moderate accuracy $85{\sim}90%$. This indicates that if the devised method is used appropriately, it can contribute in reducing the time and cost of the drug discovery process, particularly in identifying new drug target proteins.

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Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence of Two Fly Families (Phoridae and Lauxaniidae) in Korean Forests

  • Kwon, Tae-Sung;Lee, Cheol Min;Jie, Okyoung;Kim, Sung-Soo;Jung, Sungcheol;Park, Young-Seuk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2021
  • Using data from flies collected with pitfall traps in 365 forests on a nationwide scale in Korea, the abundance and distribution changes of two families (Phoridae and Lauxaniidae) in Korean forests were predicted at the genus level according to two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The most suitable temperature for the 17 major genera was estimated using a weighted average regression model. Stichillus and Anevrina displayed the lowest optimum temperature with 7.6℃ and 8.5℃ in annual mean temperature, respectively, whereas Chonocephalus had the highest optimum temperature with 12.1℃. Among thirty genera, seven genera (four from Phoridae and three from Lauxaniidae), which showed their abundance in a bell-type or linear pattern along the temperature gradient, were used for predicting the distribution changes according to the future climate change scenarios. All the taxa of this study are expected to decrease in abundance and distribution as a function of temperature increase. Moreover, cold-adapted taxa were found to be more affected than warm-adapted taxa.

Blind Quality Metric via Measurement of Contrast, Texture, and Colour in Night-Time Scenario

  • Xiao, Shuyan;Tao, Weige;Wang, Yu;Jiang, Ye;Qian, Minqian.
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.4043-4064
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    • 2021
  • Night-time image quality evaluation is an urgent requirement in visual inspection. The lighting environment of night-time results in low brightness, low contrast, loss of detailed information, and colour dissonance of image, which remains a daunting task of delicately evaluating the image quality at night. A new blind quality assessment metric is presented for realistic night-time scenario through a comprehensive consideration of contrast, texture, and colour in this article. To be specific, image blocks' color-gray-difference (CGD) histogram that represents contrast features is computed at first. Next, texture features that are measured by the mean subtracted contrast normalized (MSCN)-weighted local binary pattern (LBP) histogram are calculated. Then statistical features in Lαβ colour space are detected. Finally, the quality prediction model is conducted by the support vector regression (SVR) based on extracted contrast, texture, and colour features. Experiments conducted on NNID, CCRIQ, LIVE-CH, and CID2013 databases indicate that the proposed metric is superior to the compared BIQA metrics.

Fast Convergence GRU Model for Sign Language Recognition

  • Subramanian, Barathi;Olimov, Bekhzod;Kim, Jeonghong
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.25 no.9
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    • pp.1257-1265
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    • 2022
  • Recognition of sign language is challenging due to the occlusion of hands, accuracy of hand gestures, and high computational costs. In recent years, deep learning techniques have made significant advances in this field. Although these methods are larger and more complex, they cannot manage long-term sequential data and lack the ability to capture useful information through efficient information processing with faster convergence. In order to overcome these challenges, we propose a word-level sign language recognition (SLR) system that combines a real-time human pose detection library with the minimized version of the gated recurrent unit (GRU) model. Each gate unit is optimized by discarding the depth-weighted reset gate in GRU cells and considering only current input. Furthermore, we use sigmoid rather than hyperbolic tangent activation in standard GRUs due to performance loss associated with the former in deeper networks. Experimental results demonstrate that our pose-based optimized GRU (Pose-OGRU) outperforms the standard GRU model in terms of prediction accuracy, convergency, and information processing capability.

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Predictability of Cryptocurrency Returns

  • Kyungjin Park;Hojin Lee
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.213-242
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates whether the price of cryptocurrency is determined by the US dollar index, the price of investment assets such gold and oil, and the implied volatility of the KOSPI. Overall, the returns on cryptocurrencies are best predicted by the trading volume of the cryptocurrency both in-sample and out-of-sample. The estimates of gold and the dollar index are negative in the return prediction, though they are not significant. The dollar index, gold, and the cryptocurrencies seem to share characteristics which hedging instruments have in common. When investors take notice of the imminent market risks, they increase the demand for one of these assets and thereby increase the returns on the asset. The most notable result in the out-of-sample predictability is the predictability of the returns on value-weighted portfolio by gold. The empirical results show that the restricted model fails to encompass the unrestricted model. Therefore, the unrestricted model is significant in improving out-of-sample predictability of the portfolio returns using gold. From the empirical analyses, we can conclude that in-sample predictability cannot guarantee out-of-sample predictability and vice versa. This may shed light on the disparate results between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in a large body of previous literature.

Preoperative Prediction of Ductal Carcinoma in situ Underestimation of the Breast using Dynamic Contrast Enhanced and Diffusion-weighted Imaging (역동적 유방 자기공명 영상 및 확산 강조영상을 이용한 관상피내암종 저평가 수술전 예측)

  • Park, Mina;Kim, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Min Jung;Moon, Hee Jung
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2013
  • Objective: To investigate roles of dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE MR) and diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging in preoperative prediction of underestimation of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) ${\geq}2cm$ on US guided core needle biopsy. Materials and Methods: Twenty two patients with DCIS on US-guided 14 gauge core needle biopsy were included. Patients were divided into a group with and without DCIS underestimation based on histopathology. MR images including DCE and DW imaging were obtained with a 3.0-T MR. The lesion type (mass or non-mass), enhancement pattern, peak enhancement, and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of proven malignant masses were generated using software of CADstream and compared between two groups using Fisher's exact test and Mann Whitney test. Results: Eight patients were in the group with underestimation and 14 patients were in the group without underestimation. The lesion type and enhancement pattern were not different between two groups (P values = 1.000 and 0.613, respectively). The median peak enhancement of lesions with underestimation was 159.5%, higher than 133.5% of those without underestimation, but not significant (P value = 0.413). The median ADC value of lesions with underestimation was $1.26{\times}10^{-3}mm^2/sec$, substantially lower than $1.35{\times}10^{-3}mm^2/sec$ of those without underestimation (P value = 0.094). Conclusion: ADC values had the potential to preoperatively predict DCIS underestimation on US-guided core needle biopsy, although a large prospective series study should be conducted to confirm these results.

Assessment of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Elderly Subjects Using a Fully Automated Brain Segmentation Software

  • Kwon, Chiheon;Kang, Koung Mi;Byun, Min Soo;Yi, Dahyun;Song, Huijin;Lee, Ji Ye;Hwang, Inpyeong;Yoo, Roh-Eul;Yun, Tae Jin;Choi, Seung Hong;Kim, Ji-hoon;Sohn, Chul-Ho;Lee, Dong Young
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.164-171
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Brain atrophy in this disease spectrum begins in the medial temporal lobe structure, which can be recognized by magnetic resonance imaging. To overcome the unsatisfactory inter-observer reliability of visual evaluation, quantitative brain volumetry has been developed and widely investigated for the diagnosis of MCI and AD. The aim of this study was to assess the prediction accuracy of quantitative brain volumetry using a fully automated segmentation software package, NeuroQuant®, for the diagnosis of MCI. Materials and Methods: A total of 418 subjects from the Korean Brain Aging Study for Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease cohort were included in our study. Each participant was allocated to either a cognitively normal old group (n = 285) or an MCI group (n = 133). Brain volumetric data were obtained from T1-weighted images using the NeuroQuant software package. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to investigate relevant brain regions and their prediction accuracies. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that normative percentiles of the hippocampus (P < 0.001), amygdala (P = 0.003), frontal lobe (P = 0.049), medial parietal lobe (P = 0.023), and third ventricle (P = 0.012) were independent predictive factors for MCI. In ROC analysis, normative percentiles of the hippocampus and amygdala showed fair accuracies in the diagnosis of MCI (area under the curve: 0.739 and 0.727, respectively). Conclusion: Normative percentiles of the hippocampus and amygdala provided by the fully automated segmentation software could be used for screening MCI with a reasonable post-processing time. This information might help us interpret structural MRI in patients with cognitive impairment.

Development of a Tourist Satisfaction Quantitative Index for Building a Rating Prediction Model: Focusing on Jeju Island Tourist Spot Reviews (평점 예측 모델 개발을 위한 관광지 만족도 정량 지수 구축: 제주도 관광지 리뷰를 중심으로)

  • Dong-kyu Yun;Ki-tae Park;Sang-hyun Choi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.185-205
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    • 2023
  • As the tourism industry recovers post the COVID-19 pandemic, an increasing number of tourists are utilizing various platforms to leave reviews. However, amidst the vast amount of data, finding useful information remains challenging, often leading to time and cost inefficiencies in selecting travel destinations. Despite ongoing research, there are limitations due to the absence of ratings or the presence of different rating formats across platforms. Moreover, inconsistencies between ratings and the content of reviews pose challenges in developing recommendation models. To address these issues, this study utilized 7,104 reviews of tourist spots in Jeju Island to develop a specialized satisfaction index for Jeju tourist attractions and employed this index to construct a 'Rating Prediction Model.' To validate the model's performance, we predicted the ratings of 700 experimental data points using both the developed model and an LSTM approach. The proposed model demonstrated superior performance with a weighted accuracy of 73.87%, which is approximately 4.67% higher than that of the LSTM. The results of this study are expected to resolve the discrepancies between ratings and review contents, standardize ratings in reviews without ratings or in various formats, and provide reliable rating indicators applicable across all areas of travel in different domains.