• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution model

Search Result 387, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

The Electrical Insulation Characteristics of HTS SMES (초고온초전도 SMES의 절연특성)

  • Cheon, Hyeon-Gweon;Choi, Jae-Hyeong;Kim, Hae-Jong;Seong, Ki-Chul;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2005.07a
    • /
    • pp.623-626
    • /
    • 2005
  • Toward the practical applications, on operation of conduction-cooled HTS SMES at temperatures well below 77 K should be investigated, in order to take advantage of a greater critical current density of HTS and considerably reduce the size and weight of the system. Recently, research and development concerning application of the conduction-cooled HTS SMES that is easily movement are actively progressing in Korea. Electrical insulation under cryogenic temperature is a key and an important element in the application of this apparatus. Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HIS SMES, the breakdown characteristics of models for turn-to-turn, that is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried.

  • PDF

Failure Mechanism and Long-Term Hydrostatic Behavior of Linear Low Density Polyethylene Tubing (선형저밀도 폴리에틸렌 튜빙의 파손 메커니즘과 장기 정수압 거동)

  • Weon, Jong-Il;Chung, Yu-Kyoung;Shin, Sei-Moon;Choi, Kil-Yeong
    • Polymer(Korea)
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.440-445
    • /
    • 2008
  • The failure mechanism and failure morphology of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) tubing under hydrostatic pressure were investigated. Microscopic observations using video microscope and scanning electron microscope indicate that the failure mode is a brittle fracture including cracks propagated from inner wall to outer wall. In addition, oxidation induction time and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy results show the presence of exothermic peak and the increase in carbonyl index on the surface of fractured LLDPE tubing, due to thermal-degradation. An accelerated life test methodology and testing system for LLDPE tubing are developed using the relationship between stresses and life characteristics by means of thermal acceleration. Statistical approaches using the Arrhenius model and Weibull distribution are implemented to estimate the long-term life time of LLDPE tubing under hydrostatic pressure. Consequently, the long-term life time of LLDPE tubing at the operating temperature of $25^{\circ}C$ could be predicted and also be analyzed.

Study of Reliability Analysis Based Power Generation Facilities Maintenance System - Focused on Continuous Ship Unloader - (신뢰성 분석 기반 발전설비 점검계획 수립 시스템 연구- 석탄 하역기를 중심으로 -)

  • Hwang Seong Hwan;Kim Yu Rim;Kang Sung Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.51 no.2
    • /
    • pp.315-327
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: Recently, research has continued to predict the time of failure of the facility through measurement data obtained by attaching a sensor to the facility. However, depending on the facility, it may be difficult to attach a sensor. The purpose of this study is to propose a power generation maintenance plan system based on failure record data obtained from Continuous Ship Unloader, one of the facilities that is difficult to attach sensors. Methods: This study uses data collected from 2012 to 2022 from the 'CSU-1B' model among Continuous Ship Unloader operated by Korea Midland Power Co., LTD. By fitting fault record data to the Weibull distribution, appropriate maintenance cycles and ranges for each target facility subsystem are derived. In addition, maintenance group between subsystems is selected through Euclidean distance, a metric often used for time series data similarity. Through this, a system for establishing an maintenance plan for power generation facilities is proposed. Results: The results of this study are as follows. For the 17 subsystems of the Continuous Ship Unloader, proper maintenance cycles and ranges were determined, and a total of four maintenance groups were chosen. This resulted in the creation of an power generation maintenance plan system and the establishment of an maintenance plan. Conclusion: This study is a case study of power generation facilities. We proposed a maintenance plan system for Continuous Ship Unloader among power generation facilities.

Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.61-72
    • /
    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches through Cases of Exposure Assessment of Child Products (어린이용품 노출평가 연구에서의 결정론적 및 확률론적 방법론 사용실태 분석 및 고찰)

  • Jang, Bo Youn;Jeong, Da-In;Lee, Hunjoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.223-232
    • /
    • 2017
  • Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

Development of Stand Yield Table Based on Current Growth Characteristics of Chamaecyparis obtusa Stands (현실임분 생장특성에 의한 편백 임분수확표 개발)

  • Jung, Su Young;Lee, Kwang Soo;Lee, Ho Sang;Ji Bae, Eun;Park, Jun Hyung;Ko, Chi-Ung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.109 no.4
    • /
    • pp.477-483
    • /
    • 2020
  • We constructed a stand yield table for Chamaecyparis obtusa based on data from an actual forest. The previous stand yield table had a number of disadvantages because it was based on actual forest information. In the present study we used data from more than 200 sampling plots in a stand of Chamaecyparis obtusa. The analysis included theestimation, recovery and prediction of the distribution of values for diameter at breast height (DBH), and the result is a valuable process for the preparation ofstand yield tables. The DBH distribution model uses a Weibull function, and the site index (base age: 30 years), the standard for assessing forest productivity, was derived using the Chapman-Richards formula. Several estimation formulas for the preparation of the stand yield table were considered for the fitness index, and the optimal formula was chosen. The analysis shows that the site index is in the range of 10 to 18 in the Chamaecyparis obtusa stand. The estimated stand volume of each sample plot was found to have an accuracy of 62%. According to the residuals analysis, the stands showed even distribution around zero, which indicates that the results are useful in the field. Comparing the table constructed in this study to the existing stand yield table, we found that our table yielded comparatively higher values for growth. This is probably because the existing analysis data used a small amount of research data that did not properly reflect. We hope that the stand yield table of Chamaecyparis obtusa, a representative species of southern regions, will be widely used for forest management. As these forests stabilize and growth progresses, we plan to construct an additional yield table applicable to the production of developed stands.

Development of Cut-in Lane Changing Model Based on Observed Driver's Behavior in Uninterrupted Traffic Flow (연속교통류에서의 끼어들기 행태 분석 및 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Chang, Myung-Soon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.145-157
    • /
    • 2004
  • Microscopic freeway simulation models project the uncertain values of performance measures for subject traffic conditions by explaining drivers' driving behavior with lane changing and car-following models. However, the existing lane changing models are limited to gap acceptance oriented passive behavior of drivers and not able to capture more-or-less aggressive driving behavior(e.g. cut-in lane changing) ordinarily obseved in field. This paper suggests the definition of cut-inlane changing and presents its characteristics based on the findings from two different freeway on- and off-ramp sections. In addition, this paper proposes a new lane changing model capable of handling both passive and active drivers' driving behavior for better performance of simulations. The proposed lane changing model was tested with Hanyang Simulatin (HYTSIM), a microscopic freeway simulation program developed for this study. The HYTSIM simulation results reflecting the performance of the proposed lane changing model were compared against the field data. The test results showed that the distribution of gaps collected when vehicles change lanes were statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of White Backed Planthopper (WBPH), Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) (Homoptera: Delphacidae) (흰등멸구 [Sogatella furcifera (Horvath)] 온도 발육 모델)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Park, Hong-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.52 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-140
    • /
    • 2013
  • The developmental times of the immature stages of Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) were investigated at ten constant temperatures (12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20~30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs were successfully developed on each tested temperature regimes except $12.5^{\circ}C$ and its developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (22.5 days) and shortest at $32.5^{\circ}C$ (5.5 days). Nymphs successfully developed to the adult stage from $15^{\circ}C$ to $32.5^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. Developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (51.9 days) and it was decreased with increasing temperature up to $32.5^{\circ}C$ (9.0 days). The relationships between developmental rate and temperature were fitted by a linear model and seven nonlinear models (Analytis, Briere 1, 2, Lactin 2, Logan 6, Performance and modified Sharpe & DeMichele). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $12.3^{\circ}C$ respectively. The thermal constant required to complete egg and nymphal stage were 122.0 and 156.3 DD, respectively. The Briere 1 model was best fitted ($r^2$= 0.88~0.99) for all developmental stages, among seven nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by three non-linear models (2-parameter, 3-parameter Weibull and Logistic) ($r^2$= 0.91~0.96) except second and fifth instar.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of Paromius exiguus (Distant) (Heteroptera: Lygaeidae) (흑다리긴노린재[Paromius exiguus (Distant)] 온도발육 모형)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Park, Hong-Hyun;Uhm, Ki-Baik;Lee, Joon-Ho
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.49 no.4
    • /
    • pp.305-312
    • /
    • 2010
  • The developmental time of immature stages of Paromius exiguus (Distant) was investigated at nine constant temperatures (15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20-30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10h (L:D). Eggs did not develop at $15^{\circ}C$, and their developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures. Its developmental time was longest at $17.5^{\circ}C$ (28.2 days) and shortest at $35^{\circ}C$ (5.9 days). The first nymphs failed to reach the next nymphal stage at 17.5 and $35^{\circ}C$. Nymphal developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures between $20^{\circ}C$ and $32.5^{\circ}C$, and developmental rate was decreased at temperatures above $30^{\circ}C$ in all stages except for the fourth nymphal stage. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature fit a linear model and three nonlinear models (Briere 1, Lactin 2, and Logan 6). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $l3.8^{\circ}C$ and $15.3^{\circ}C$, respectively. The thermal constant required to reach complete egg and the total nymphal stage was 109.9 and 312.5DD, respectively. The Logan-6 model was best fitted ($r^2$=0.94-0.99), among three nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.91-0.99).

Comparison of Temperature-dependent Development Model of Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) under Constant Temperature and Fluctuating Temperature (실내 항온과 온실 변온조건에서 목화진딧물의 온도 발육비교)

  • Kim, Do-Ik;Ko, Suk-Ju;Choi, Duck-Soo;Kang, Beom-Ryong;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Seon-Gon;Park, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sang-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.51 no.4
    • /
    • pp.421-429
    • /
    • 2012
  • The developmental time period of Aphis gossypii was studied in laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a cucumber plastic house. The mortality of A. gossypii in the laboratory was high in the 2nd (20.0%) and 3rd stage(13.3%) at low temperature but high in the 3rd (26.7%) and 4th stage (33.3%) at high temperatures. Mortality in the plastic house was high in the 1st and 2nd stage but there was no mortality in the 4th stage at low temperature. The total developmental period was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.2 days) in the laboratory and shortest at $28.5^{\circ}C$ (4.09 days) in the plastic house. The lower threshold temperature at the total nymphal stage was $6.8^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required to reach the total nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature fit the nonlinear model of Logan-6 which has the lowest value for the Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.89{\sim}0.96$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed outcomes. Thus it is considered that the model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for Aphis gossypii.