• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution model

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Estimation of Accident Probability for Dynamic Risk Assessment (동적 위험 분석을 위한 사고확률 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Byeong-Cheol Park;Chae-Og Lim;In-Hyuk Nam;Sung-Chul Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.26 no.2_2
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2023
  • Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

Study on Acceleration Factor Model with Accelerated Stress Interactions (가속 스트레스의 교호작용을 고려한 가속계수 모델에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Eui;Kang, Bo-Sik;Cho, You-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.751-757
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    • 2012
  • An accelerated life test (ALT) is a test method that forces components to fail more quickly than they would under use conditions by applying higher overstresses. When two or more accelerating stresses are involved in an ALT, an interaction effect may occur. In previous studies, mostly ALTs without considering an interaction of accelerated stresses and accelerated life models were proposed. The life data obtained are extrapolated using a life-stress relationship to estimate the life distribution at use conditions. We use the general log-linear relationship to model the dependence of life in the Weibull distribution on stress. Therefore, this study suggests the acceleration factor model between the lives at use conditions and accelerated conditions by using mechanical component life data considering an interaction effect. Further, the accelerated life test method and acceleration factor model proposed in this paper will be the basis for adopting an accelerated life test with accelerated stress interactions.

The Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model from the Perspective of Learning Effects (학습 효과 기법을 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰도 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2011
  • In this study, software products developed in the course of testing, software managers in the process of testing software test and test tools for effective learning effects perspective has been studied using the NHPP software. The Weibull distribution applied to distribution was based on finite failure NHPP. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. As a result, the learning factor is greater than automatic error that is generally efficient model could be confirmed. This paper, a numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection were efficient using the mean square error and $R_{sq}$.

Fatigue wind load spectrum construction based on integration of turbulent wind model and measured data for long-span metal roof

  • Liman Yang;Cong Ye;Xu Yang;Xueyao Yang;Jian-ge Kou
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2023
  • Aiming at the problem that fatigue characteristics of metal roof rely on local physical tests and lacks the cyclic load sequence matching with regional climate, this paper proposed a method of constructing the fatigue load spectrum based on integration of wind load model, measured data of long-span metal roof and climate statistical data. According to the turbulence characteristics of wind, the wind load model is established from the aspects of turbulence intensity, power spectral density and wind pressure coefficient. Considering the influence of roof configuration on wind pressure distribution, the parameters are modified through fusing the measured data with least squares method to approximate the actual wind pressure load of the roof system. Furthermore, with regards to the wind climate characteristics of building location, Weibull model is adopted to analyze the regional meteorological data to obtain the probability density distribution of wind velocity used for calculating wind load, so as to establish the cyclic wind load sequence with the attributes of regional climate and building configuration. Finally, taking a workshop's metal roof as an example, the wind load spectrum is constructed according to this method, and the fatigue simulation and residual life prediction are implemented based on the experimental data. The forecasting result is lightly higher than the design standards, consistent with general principles of its conservative safety design scale, which shows that the presented method is validated for the fatigue characteristics study and health assessment of metal roof.

Development of accelerated life test method for the wind turbine Gearbox using cumulative damage theory (누적손상이론을 이용한 풍력증속기의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Son, Ki-Su;Kwak, Hee-Sung;Kang, Change-Hoon;Cho, Jun-Haeng
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.693-697
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to develop accelerated life test method of the wind-turbine gearbox using accumulated damage theory that used to model the fatigue of parts that receive variable load. The accumulated damage theory was introduced, and the estimation of life and calculation of accelerated life test time was illustrated. As the actual application example, accelerated life test method of the gearbox was described. Life distribution of the wind-turbine gearbox was supposed to follow Weibull distribution and life test time was calculated under the conditions of average life (MTBF) 140,600 hours and 99% reliability for one test sample According to the accumulated damage theory, because test time can shorten in case increase test load, test time could be reduced by 1.2 years when we put the load 1.2 times of rated load than 0.93 times of rated load that is equivalent load calculated by load spectrum of the wind turbine. This time, acceleration coefficient was 21.3. This accelerated test method was used to develop accelerated test method of gear reducer, gear and bearing as well as the industrial gearbox and it is considered to be applied comprehensively to mechanical parts the fatigue of which is happened by load or pressure etc.

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Experimental observation and realistic modeling of initiation and propagation of the rock fracture by acoustic emission

  • Wang, Shu-Hong;Lee, Chung-In;Jeon, Seok-Won;Lee, Hee-Kwang;Tang, Chun-An
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2006
  • It is well known that acoustic emission (AE) is indicator of rock fracturing or damage as rock is brought to failure under the uniaxial compressive loads. In this paper, an experimental study on the source location of acoustic emission on the cylindrical specimens of granite under uniaxial compression test was made. The AE source location was made by measuring the six channel AE data. Comparing to this experiment, the numerical method is applied to model the initiation and propagation of fracture by AE using a numerical code, RFPA (Realistic Failure Process Analysis). This code incorporates the mesoscopic heterogeneity in Young's modulus and rock strength characteristic of rock masses. In the numerical models, values of Young's modulus and rock strength are realized according to a Weibull distribution in which the distribution parameters represent the level of heterogeneity of the medium. The results of the simulations show that RFPA can be used not only to produce acoustic emission similar to those measurements in our experiments, but also to predict fracturing patterns under uniaxial loading condition.

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Development of Accelerated Life Test Method for Machanical Parts Using Cumulative Damage Theory (누적손상이론을 이용한 기계류부품의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Cheol;Lee, Geun-Ho;Kim, Hyeong-Ui
    • 연구논문집
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    • s.32
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2002
  • This study was performed to develop accelerated life test method of machanical parts using cumulative damage theory that used to model the fatigue of parts that receive variable load. The cumulative damage theory was introduced, and the estimation of life and calculation of accelerated life test time was illustrated. As the actual application example, accelerated life test method of agricultural tractor transmission was described. Life distribution of agricultural tractor transmission was supposed to follow Weibull distribution and life test time was calculated under the conditions of average life (MTBF) 3,000 hours and 90% reliability for one test sample. According to the cumulative damage theory, because test time can shorten in case increase test load, test time could be reduced by 482 hours when we put the load 1.1 times of rated load than 0.73 times of rated load that is equivalent load calculated by load spectrum of the agricultural tractor. This time, acceleration coefficient was 11.7. This accelerated test method was used to develop accelerated test method of gear reducer, hydraulic hose and bearing as well as agricultural tractor transmission and it is considered to be applied comprehensively to machanical parts the fatigue of which is happened by load or pressure etc.

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Generation of Synthetic Time Series Wind Speed Data using Second-Order Markov Chain Model (2차 마르코프 사슬 모델을 이용한 시계열 인공 풍속 자료의 생성)

  • Ki-Wahn Ryu
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2023
  • In this study, synthetic time series wind data was generated numerically using a second-order Markov chain. One year of wind data in 2020 measured by the AWS on Wido Island was used to investigate the statistics for measured wind data. Both the transition probability matrix and the cumulative transition probability matrix for annual hourly mean wind speed were obtained through statistical analysis. Probability density distribution along the wind speed and autocorrelation according to time were compared with the first- and the second-order Markov chains with various lengths of time series wind data. Probability density distributions for measured wind data and synthetic wind data using the first- and the second-order Markov chains were also compared to each other. For the case of the second-order Markov chain, some improvement of the autocorrelation was verified. It turns out that the autocorrelation converges to zero according to increasing the wind speed when the data size is sufficiently large. The generation of artificial wind data is expected to be useful as input data for virtual digital twin wind turbines.

Classification of Regional Types for Pinus densiflora stands Using Height-DBH Growth in Korea (우리나라 소나무림의 수고-흉고직경 생장에 따른 지역형 분류)

  • Park, Joon Hyung;Jung, Su Young;Lee, Kwang Soo;Kim, Chang Hwan;Park, Yong Bae;Yoo, Byung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.3
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    • pp.336-341
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    • 2016
  • The object of this study was to classify the local types in relation to regional differences using Height-DBH growth of Pinus densiflora in Korea. The regional types were clustered according to Getis-Ord's $G_i$ among Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) by characteristics of spatial distribution which were calculated the residual of sample plots by fitting Height-DBH growth model using Weibull growth equation. Accordingly, Pinus densiflora were classified 3 groups, It indicated that annual precipitation had one of the biggest impacts among the considered site and climate factors. This results can become the standard for regional management of Pinus densiflora forests.

Prediction of Biaxial Strength and Fatigue Life using the Concept of Equivalent Strength (등가강도 개념에 의한 탄소섬유 복합재료의 이축강도 및 피로수명 예측)

  • 이창수;황운봉
    • Composites Research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 1999
  • A failure criterion must be considered in each failure mode and loading condition to provide easy determining strength parameters, flexibility and rational simplicity. In this study, new failure criterion was developed by introducing equivalent strength under biaxial loading of tension and torsion. The experimental results showed that the equivalent biaxial strength has a power law relation with respect to a parameter, cos($tan^{-1}R_b$). Failure strength under biaxial loadings could be predicted as a function of tensile strength, torsional strength and biaxial ratio. The scattering of experimental data could be predicted using a Weibull distribution function and the concept of equivalent biaxial strength. Also, in this study, a fatigue theory was developed based on a plane stress model which enabled the S-N curve for combined stress states to be predicted from the S-N data for uniaxial loading. The prediction models can be predicted a biaxial strength and fatigue life of general laminated composite naterials under multi-axial loadings.

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