• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.22
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• pp.9673-9678
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• 2014

Background: Breast cancer is a fatal disease and the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women with an increasing pattern worldwide. The burden is mostly attributed to metastatic cancers that occur in one-third of patients and the treatments are palliative. It is of great interest to determine factors affecting time from cancer diagnosis to secondary metastasis. Materials and Methods: Cure rate models assume a Poisson distribution for the number of unobservable metastatic-component cells that are completely deleted from the non-metastasis patient body but some may remain and result in metastasis. Time to metastasis is defined as a function of the number of these cells and the time for each cell to develop a detectable sign of metastasis. Covariates are introduced to the model via the rate of metastatic-component cells. We used non-mixture cure rate models with Weibull and log-logistic distributions in a Bayesian setting to assess the relationship between metastasis free survival and covariates. Results: The median of metastasis free survival was 76.9 months. Various models showed that from covariates in the study, lymph node involvement ratio and being progesterone receptor positive were significant, with an adverse and a beneficial effect on metastasis free survival, respectively. The estimated fraction of patients cured from metastasis was almost 48%. The Weibull model had a slightly better performance than log-logistic. Conclusions: Cure rate models are popular in survival studies and outperform other models under certain conditions. We explored the prognostic factors of metastatic breast cancer from a different viewpoint. In this study, metastasis sites were analyzed all together. Conducting similar studies in a larger sample of cancer patients as well as evaluating the prognostic value of covariates in metastasis to each site separately are recommended.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.302-315
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• 2023

Distribution characteristics and altitudinal gradient of four species (E. strigata, E. separigata, E. orientalis-sachalinensis group) of the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) were analyzed with probability distribution models (exponential, normal, lognormal, logistic, Weibull, gamma, beta, Gumbel). Data was collected from 23,846 sampling units of 6,787 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021. The beta distribution model showed the best fit for positively skewed E. orientalis-sachalinensis and little-skewed E. strigata along with altitudinal gradient. The reversed lognormal distribution model showed the best-fit for negatively skewed E. separigata. E. orientalis-sachalinensis distributed at the range of altitude 1~700 m (mean 251 m, median 226 m, mode 124 m, and standard deviation 161 m), E. strigata distributed at the range of altitude 5~871 m (mean 474 m, median 478 m, mode 492 m, and standard deviation 200 m), E. separigata distributed at the range of altitude 7~846 m (mean 620 m, median 659 m, mode 760 m, and standard deviation 181 m). Altitudinal habitat suitability ranges were estimated to be 42~257 m for E. orientalis-sachalinensis, 335~644 m for E. strigata, and 641~824 m for E. separigata. Based on the altitudinal spectrum of suitability and altitude-related temperature analysis results, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be thermophilic, E. strigata to be mesophilic, and E. separigata to be thermophobic. This is the first national-scale evaluation of the altitudinal distribution of Ephemera in Korea. These results will be used in a further research study on altitudinal shift of the species of Ephemera under climate change.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.372-374
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• 2006

This paper presents a methodology to predict a failure probability related to the aging generating units in Korea power system. Each generator is represented by a combined reliability model of its individual components, which is determined by failure data. The Weibull distribution is used to calculate failure probability and its parameters are obtained from Type II Censoring. Consequently, the proposed methods would likely to permit utilities to reduce overall costs in the new deregulated environment.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• v.3
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• pp.81-96
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• 1992

This study represents the methodology for feasibility analysis of small hydro power SHP plant. Cumulative density function of Weibull distribution and Thiessen method were adopted to decide flow duration curve at SHP candidate site. The perfomance prediction model and construction cost estimation model for tunnel-type SHP plant were developed. Eight tunnel -type SHP candidate sites existing on Han-river were selected and surveyed for actual site reconnaissance. The performance characteristics and economical feasibility for these sites were analyzed by using developed models. As a result, it was found that the optimum design flowrate with the lowest unit generation cost for tunel-type SHP candidate site were the flowrate concerming with between 20% and 30% of time ratio on the flow duration curve. Additionally, primary design specifications such as design flowrate, effective head, capacity, annual averageload factor, annual electricity production were estimated and discussed for eight surveyed SHP candidate sites.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.229-239
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• 2013

This paper reports a manner to use a Bayesian approach to derive the optimal replacement policy. In order to produce a system with minimal repair warranty, a replacement model with the extended warranty is considered. Within the warranty period, the failed system is minimally repaired by the manufacturer at no cost to the end-user. The failure time is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution with unknown parameters. The expected cost rate per unit time, from the end-user's viewpoints, is induced by the Bayesian approach, and the optimal replacement policy to minimize the cost rate is proposed. Finally, a numerical example illustrating to derive the optimal replacement policy based on the Bayesian approach is described.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.24 no.8 s.179
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• pp.2115-2122
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• 2000

The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics C
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• v.35C no.5
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• pp.11-16
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• 1998

We analyze the software reliability growth models for the specified period from the viewpoint of theory of differential equations. we defien a genralized form of reliability growth models as follws: dN(t)/dt = b(t)f(N(t)), Where N(t) is the number of remaining faults and b(t) is the failure rate per software fault at time t. We show that the well-known three software reliability growth models - Goel - Okumoto, s-shaped, and Musa-Okumoto model- are special cases of the generalized form. We, also, extend the generalized form into an extended form being dN(t)/dt = b(t, .gamma.)f(N(t)), The genneralized form can be obtained if the distribution of failures is given. The extended form can be used to describe a software reliabilit growth model having weibull density function as a fault exposure rate. As an application of the generalized form, we classify three mentioned models according to the forms of b(t) and f(N(t)). Also, we present a case study applying the generalized form.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1989.10a
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• pp.29-33
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• 1989

An extended model for the assessment of fatigue reliability of steel structures In the presence of residual stresses Is developed. The model explicitly Includes the uncertainties of the lean stress and residual stress in terms of the zero-mean equivalent stress-range. It Is assumed that the fatigue life of welded Joints follows the Weibull distribution. Based on the numerical illustrations, It Is shown that the probability of fatigue fat lure and the allowable stress-range for fatigue design could be significantly affected by the presence of residual stresses. This effect may be represented through the mean stress at the welded joints.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.132-137
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• 2000

In this study, model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models. experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work fatter used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior call be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. An increasing of thickness raises a variation of arrest toughness.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.25 no.10
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• pp.1651-1658
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• 2001

It is necessary to evaluate fatigue strength and reliability of the connecting rod which is core part in automotive engine to assure the high level of durability of automobile. For this purpose, the loading conditions in automotive engine is obtained by the dynamic analysis. Based on these results, the critical section was identified by the finite element analysis. The fatigue strength under constant amplitude was evaluated and the mean of the fatigue limit at R = -2.27 derived from the staircase method was 311.2MPa. And the failure probability( F$\sub$p/ ) derived from the strength-stress interference model is 0.0003% at the 99.99% confidence level and the mean factor of safety was 4.2.