• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2002년도 춘계공동학술대회
• /
• pp.762-766
• /
• 2002

This paper proposes a method or estimating lifetime distribution for products under two-dimensional warranty in which age and usage are used simultaneously to determine the eligibility of a warranty claim. For such a case, existing methods reduce the two-dimensional time stale to a single stale assuming that the two variables have a functional relationship. This assumption is, however, not appropriate since the functional relationship is unknown in practice. In this paper, the field age and usage data are modeled with a bivariate lifetime distribution. Method of obtaining maximum likelihood estimators is outlined, their asymptotic properties are studied and specific formulas for a bivariate Weibull distribution are obtained. The proposed model is compared with the existing one which assumes a lineal relationship between the two variables Simulation studios are performed to investigate the effect of the degree of dependency between the two variables.

• 한국산림과학회지
• /
• 제94권5호통권162호
• /
• pp.321-329
• /
• 2005

Based on the data representing four typical Korean pine forest types, the age structure, DBH distribution, species composition, and forking rule were systemically analyzed for old-growth Korean pine forest in Liangshui Nature Reserve, northeast China. The age structure of Korean pine trees was strongly uneven-aged with one dominated peak following normal distribution, and age of trees varied from 100 to 180 years within a stand. The DBH and height differences in same age class (20 years) varied from 28 cm~64 cm and 5 to 20 m, respectively. Many conifer and hard wood species, such as spruce, fir, costata birch, basswood, oak, and elm, were mixed with dominated trees of Korean pine. The canopy of the old-growth Korean pine forest can be divided into two layers, and differences of mean age and height between Layer I and Layer II were ranged 80~150 years and 7~13 m, respectively. The Weibull function was used to model the diameter distribution and performed well to describe size-class distribution either with a single peak in over-story canopy and inverse J-shape in under-story canopy for old-growth Korean pine stands. The forking height of Korean pine trees ranged from 16m to 24 m (mean 19.4 m) and tree age about 120 to 160 years old. The results will provide a scientific basis to protect and recover the ecosystem of natural old-growth Korean pine and also provide the model in management of Korean pine plantation.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
• /
• 제22권10호
• /
• pp.49-55
• /
• 2008

본 논문은 확률분포를 이용하여 전력설비의 기대여명을 산출하는 방법을 제안한다. 전력설비의 기대여명이란 해당 설비의 잔존수명으로, 기대여명은 전력시스템의 보수계획, 설비교체계획, 신뢰도 평가에 유용하게 이용될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 각 운전년수별로 향후 운전가능년수에 대한 누적확률을 계산하고, 계산한 누적확률로 누적확률분포함수모델의 모수를 결정한 후, 모델함수의 평균값을 구하여 기대여명을 산정한다. 제안한 방법에서는 정립한 누적확률분포함수모델을 이용하여 기대여명 뿐만 아니라, 향후 특정 운전년수에 이르기 위한 기대확률까지도 쉽게 구할 수 있다. 제안한 방법은 우리나라 복합화력 발전소 발전기의 기대여명 추정에 적용하여 그 효용성을 입증하였다.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
• /
• 제23권9호
• /
• pp.157-161
• /
• 2023

Reliability is one of the computable quality features of the software. To assess the reliability the software reliability growth models(SRGMS) are used at different test times based on statistical learning models. In all situations, Tradational time-based SRGMS may not be enough, and such models cannot recognize errors in small and medium sized applications.Numerous traditional reliability measures are used to test software errors during application development and testing. In the software testing and maintenance phase, however, new errors are taken into consideration in real time in order to decide the reliability estimate. In this article, we suggest using the Weibull model as a computational approach to eradicate the problem of software reliability modeling. In the suggested model, a new distribution model is suggested to improve the reliability estimation method. We compute the model developed and stabilize its efficiency with other popular software reliability growth models from the research publication. Our assessment results show that the proposed Model is worthier to S-shaped Yamada, Generalized Poisson, NHPP.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제48권4호
• /
• pp.597-608
• /
• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a probability distribution of the burst pressure of API 5L X65 pipes for the reliability assessment of corroded gas pipelines. Methods: Corrosion is a major cause of weakening the residual strength of the pipe. The mean residual strength on the corrosion defect can be obtained using the burst pressure code. However, in order to obtain the pipe reliability, a probability distribution of the burst pressure should be provided. This study is concerned with estimating the burst pressure distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. A response surface method is employed to represent the distribution parameter as a model of the corrosion defect size. Results: The experimental results suggest that the normal or Weibull distribution should be suitable as the probability distribution of the burst pressure. In particular, it was shown that the probability distribution parameters can be well predicted by using the depth and length of the corrosion defect. Conclusion: Given a corrosion defect on the pipe, its corresponding burst pressure distribution can be provided at instant. Subsequently, a reliability assessment of the pipe is conducted as well.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.567-573
• /
• 2011

본 연구는 3년간 가정용수의 실측사용량 자료를 바탕으로 표본가구의 가구특성, 주택특성, 월 특성을 나타내는 항목들을 조사하여 가정 용수 수요예측모형을 개발하는 것이다. 그러나 가정용수 사용량의 분포가 왼쪽으로 치우쳐져 있는 형태를 가지므로 정규분포를 따르지 않는다. 따라서 반응변수가 정규분포를 가정하는 다중회귀모형 적용 시 추정치가 편의 되며, 모형의 설명력이 매우 낮은 결과를 초래한다. 그리고 자료의 대용량화로 인하여 오차분산이 매우 작아지므로 분산분석표에 나타나는 설명변수들의 검정 시 항상 유의하게 나타나는 결과를 초래한다. 이에 대한 대안으로 와이블 회귀모형 및 대수정규 회귀모형을 이용하여 가정 용수 수요량 예측 모형을 통계적으로 분석하고자 한다. 분석결과를 토대로 가정용수의 수요예측, 수요관리 정책수립, 수도 관련 기자재 및 시설 규격결정 등에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.236-244
• /
• 1993

온도가 담배나방 발육에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위하여 18~$33^{\circ}C$ 사이의 7개 온도조건에서 인공사료를 이용하여 광주기 14:10 조건에서 사육하였다. 알, 유충, 용의 발육기간은 전체 발육기간에 대해서 각각 10, 48, 42% 정도를 점유하였다. 발육영점온도는 알, 유충, 용, 전체발육기간(알에서 성충까지)에 따라 각각 8.62, 12.65, 11.64, $11.89^{\circ}C$였다. 평균발육속도를 Sharpe와 Demichele(1977)이 제시한 비선형모델에 적용한 결과 온도에 따른 발육특성을 잘 설명할 수 있는 것으로 나타났으며 ($r^2$=0.993~0.996), 발육기간분포의 특성을 알기 위하여 정규화한 누적발유기간분포를 Weibull분포에 적용한 결과 높은 적합성을 나타내었다($r^2$=0.987~0.999).

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제37권8호
• /
• pp.886-892
• /
• 2013

고압호스 조립체는 건설기계, 선박, 항공기, 산업기계, 공작기계 및 자동차 등의 각종 유압장치에 널리 유압배관으로 사용된다. 이는 유연성이 필요한 부분에 유체동력($P^*Q$)으로 전달해야 함으로서, 고장이 발생할 경우는 유압시스템 전체가 작동이 불가능함으로서 신뢰성이 매우 중요한 부품이다. 가속 수명 시험 데이터는 와이블분포 분석을 통해서 형상 모수를 추종 하였다. 본 시험연구에서는 실제 가속수명시험 조건의 충격압력과 반복 굽힘을 변화시켜 시험시간을 감소시켰다. 가속수명시험 모형은 GLL(generalized linear)모형을 사용하였으며, 충격압력과 반복 굽힘에 대한 가속지수는 각각 6.64와 4.46으로 확인되었다. 또한 시험 결과에 대한 분석결과 형상모수(${\beta}$)는 6.19이며, 실제 사용조건인 35 MPa과 굽힘 반경 R100 mm를 적용하였을 경우 척도모수(${\eta}$)는 $1.035{\times}108$사이클로 확인되었다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제20권7호
• /
• pp.2159-2166
• /
• 1996

The stochastic properties of variation in fatigue crack growth are important in reliability and stability of structures. In this study,the stochastic model for the variation of fatigue crack growth rate was proposed in consideration of nonhomogeneity of materials. For this model, experiments were ocnducted on 7075-T6 aluminum alloy under the constant stress intensity factor range. The variation of fatigue crack growth rate was expressed by random variables Z and r based on the variation of material coefficients C and m in the paris-Erodogan's equation. The distribution of fatigue life with respect to the stress intensity factor range was evaluated by the stochastic Markov chain model based on the Paris-Erdogan's equation. The merit of proposed model is that only a small number of test are required to determine this this function, and fatigue crack growth life is easily predicted at the given stress intensity factor range.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제26권6호
• /
• pp.383-395
• /
• 2018

An accurate determination of wind speed distribution is the basis for an evaluation of the wind energy potential required to design a wind turbine, so it is important to estimate unknown parameters of wind speed distribution. In this paper, Gumbel distribution is used in modelling wind speed data, and alternative robust estimation methods to estimate its parameters are considered. The methodologies used to obtain the estimators of the parameters are least absolute deviation, weighted least absolute deviation, median/MAD and least median of squares. The performances of the estimators are compared with traditional estimation methods (i.e., maximum likelihood and least squares) according to bias, mean square deviation and total mean square deviation criteria using a Monte-Carlo simulation study for the data with and without outliers. The simulation results show that least median of squares and median/MAD estimators are more efficient than others for data with outliers in many cases. However, median/MAD estimator is not consistent for location parameter of Gumbel distribution in all cases. In real data application, it is firstly demonstrated that Gumbel distribution fits the daily mean wind speed data well and is also better one to model the data than Weibull distribution with respect to the root mean square error and coefficient of determination criteria. Next, the wind data modified by outliers is analysed to show the performance of the proposed estimators by using numerical and graphical methods.