A Study on Growth and Development Information and Growth Prediction Model Development Influencing on the Production of Citrus Fruits
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- Agribusiness and Information Management
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- v.6 no.1
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- pp.1-11
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- 2014
The purpose of this study is to develop the growth prediction model that can predict growth and development information influencing on the production of citrus fruits. The growth model was developed to predict the floral leaf ratio, number of fruit sets, fruit width, and overweight fruits depending on the main period of growth and development by considering the weather factors because the fruit production is influenced by weather depending on the growth and development period. To predict the outdoor-grown citrus fruit production, the investigation result for the standard farms is used as the basic data; in this study, we also understood that the influence of weather factors on the citrus fruit production based on the data from 2004 to 2013 of the outdoor-grown citrus fruit observation report in which the standard farms were targeted by the Agricultural Research Service and suggested the growth and development information prediction model with the weather information as an independent variable to build the observation model. The growth and development model for outdoor-grown citrus fruits was assumed by using the Ordinary Least Square method (OLS), and the developed growth prediction model can make a prediction in advance with the weather factors prior to the observation investigation for the citrus fruit production. To predict the growth and development information of the production of citrus fruits having a great ripple effect as a representative crop in Jeju agriculture, the prediction result regarding the production applying the weather factors depending on growth and development period could be applied usefully.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the probable period of the planting work in consideration of weather factors. The impact degree of weather factors on the control of planting schedule was measured by the possible working days on the basis of weather condition. To establish the weather standard, the researcher analyzed the questionnaires on the manager of planting work and also the meteorological data for 10 years(1983-1992) in Seoul. The results are as follows;
Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in