• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water model

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Development of Dam Inflow Simulation Method Based on Bayesian Autoregressive Exogenous Stochastic Volatility (ARXSV) model

  • Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kim, Ho-Jun;Kim, Ki-Chul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.437-437
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    • 2022
  • The prediction of dam inflow rate is crucial for the management of the largest multi-purpose dam in South Korea, the Soyang Dam. The main issue associated with the management of water resources is the stochastic nature of the reservoir inflow leading to an increase in uncertainty associated with the inflow prediction. The Autoregressive (AR) model is commonly used to provide the simulation and forecast of hydrometeorological data. However, because its estimation is based solely on the time-series data, it has the disadvantage of being unable to account for external variables such as climate information. This study proposes the use of the Autoregressive Exogenous Stochastic Volatility (ARXSV) model within a Bayesian modeling framework for increased predictability of the monthly dam inflow by addressing the exogenous and stochastic factors. This study analyzes 45 years of hydrological input data of the Soyang Dam from the year 1974 to 2019. The result of this study will be beneficial to strengthen the potential use of data-driven models for accurate inflow predictions and better reservoir management.

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Experimental Study on Hysteresis Phenomena in Porous Media (다공성 매질에서 이력현상에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • 강우영;박재현
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 1995
  • The water retention function which has the hysteresis phenomena is required to analyze the Richards equation which is a governing equation of the unsaturated flow, and its hysteresis phenomena has influence upon the characteristics of the unsaturated flow. The accuracy of the published hysteresis models is compared by using experimental data of the water retention function. The apparatus to experiment the hysteresis phenomena on the soil is developed, and experimental data for the main wetting process and the main drying process of the water retention function are obtained. The parameters of the van Genuchten equation are calibrated by using experimentally obtained data. As a result of the comparison of the selected hysteresis models which simulate the main drying curve from the main wetting curve, the Model I-1(Mualem) overestimates and the Model II-1(Mualem) underestimates but the Model III-2(Park and Sonu) similarly estimates the experimental data of the main drying curve.

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Low Flow Analysis of the Nakdong River Basin by SSARR-8 Model (SSARR-8 모형을 이용한 낙동강 수계의 저수유출 해석)

  • Gang, Ju-Hwan;Lee, Gil-Seong;Kim, Nam-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 1998
  • The SSARR model adopting IS(integrated snowband) watershed model is applied to the Nakdong River basin for low flow analysis. The IS watershed model is added to new version of the SSARR which has functions of simulating evapotranspiration. infiltration and lower zone routing. It provides annual water budget information as an output file and can be operated by interactive mode. Sensitivity analysis for both cases of high and low flows was carried out, which becomes the knowledge base for model calibration. Model verification was performed using the relative errors of high flows and absolute errors of low flows at the control points. Monthly water budget analysis was done by IS watershed model. and it reveals that runoff coefficient is 52.6%

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Evaluation of Multi-classification Model Performance for Algal Bloom Prediction Using CatBoost (머신러닝 CatBoost 다중 분류 알고리즘을 이용한 조류 발생 예측 모형 성능 평가 연구)

  • Juneoh Kim;Jungsu Park
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • Monitoring and prediction of water quality are essential for effective river pollution prevention and water quality management. In this study, a multi-classification model was developed to predict chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) level in rivers. A model was developed using CatBoost, a novel ensemble machine learning algorithm. The model was developed using hourly field monitoring data collected from January 1 to December 31, 2015. For model development, chl-a was classified into class 1 (Chl-a≤10 ㎍/L), class 2 (10<Chl-a≤50 ㎍/L), and class 3 (Chl-a>50 ㎍/L), where the number of data used for the model training were 27,192, 11,031, and 511, respectively. The macro averages of precision, recall, and F1-score for the three classes were 0.58, 0.58, and 0.58, respectively, while the weighted averages were 0.89, 0.90, and 0.89, for precision, recall, and F1-score, respectively. The model showed relatively poor performance for class 3 where the number of observations was much smaller compared to the other two classes. The imbalance of data distribution among the three classes was resolved by using the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) algorithm, where the number of data used for model training was evenly distributed as 26,868 for each class. The model performance was improved with the macro averages of precision, rcall, and F1-score of the three classes as 0.58, 0.70, and 0.59, respectively, while the weighted averages were 0.88, 0.84, and 0.86 after SMOTE application.

Estimation on Chemical Water Quality Suitability Index for 4 Species of the Mayfly Genus Ephemera (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) Using Probability Distribution Models (확률분포모형을 이용한 하루살이속(Ephemera) 4종에 대한 화학적 수질 적합도지수 평가)

  • Bongjun Jung;Dongsoo Kong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.475-490
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    • 2023
  • Chemical water quality suitability for species (Ephemera strigata, Ephemera separigata, and Ephemera orientalis-sachalinensis group) of the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) was analyzed with probability distribution models (Exponential, Normal, Lognormal, Logistic, Weibull, Gamma, Beta, Gumbel). Data was collected from 23,957 sampling units of 6,664 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021. E. orientalis-sachalinensis occurred at the range of BOD5 0.3~11.1 mg/L (the best-fit Lognormal model); T-P 0.007~0.769 mg/L (the Gumbel model); TSS 0.4~142.2 mg/L (the Lognormal model). E. strigata occurred at the range of BOD5 0.4~7.4 mg/L (the Gumbel model); T-P 0.007~0.254 mg/L (the Lognormal model); TSS 0.4~17.1 mg/L (the Lognormal model). E. separigata occurred at the range of BOD5 0.4~2.6 mg/L (the R-Weibull model); T-P 0.007~0.134 mg/L (the Lognormal model); TSS 0.7~10.0 mg/L (the Lognormal model). Habitat suitability range of E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be 0.4~1.9 mg/L (BOD5), 0.024~0.086 mg/L (T-P), 2.5~22.4 mg/L (TSS); that of E. strigata was 0.4~0.7 mg/L (BOD5), 0.007~0.018 mg/L (T-P), 0.0~1.7 mg/L (TSS); that of E. separigata was 0.0~0.4 mg/L (BOD5), 0.000~0.015 mg/L (T-P), 0.5~3.1 mg/L (TSS). In a relative comparision, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be eurysaprobic, and narrowly adapted in high levels of T-P and TSS, E. strigata was estimated to be oligosaprobic and adapted in low levels of T-P and TSS, and E. separigata was estimated to be stenooligosaprobic and widely adapted in low level of T-P and TSS.

TRAVELING WAVE SOLUTIONS FOR A SHALLOW WATER MODEL

  • Jung, Soyeun
    • Honam Mathematical Journal
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.649-654
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    • 2017
  • In this note, we seek traveling wave solutions of a shallow water model in a one dimensional space by a simple but rigorous calculation. From the profile equation of traveling wave solutions, we need to investigate the phase portrait of a one dimensional ordinary differential equation $\tilde{u}^{\prime}=F(\tilde{u})$ connecting two end states of the traveling wave solution.

Numerical Simulations of Flood Inundations in Guri (구리지역의 홍수범람해석)

  • Yu Jae Hong;Cho Yong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1174-1178
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    • 2005
  • In this study, flood inundations have been simulated by using the numerical model FLUMEN solving the shallow-water equations with a finite volume method. Before applying to a real problem, the numerical model is first applied to simplified problems. Obtained numerical results are verified by comparing to available analytical solutions and laboratory measurements. Reasonable agreements are observed. The model is then applied to a simulation of flood events with real geometries. The results of the present study provide basic informations for a flood inundation map.

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ELM based short-term Water Demand Prediction for Effective Operation of Water Treatment Plant (정수장 운영효율 향상을 위한 ELM 기반 단기 물 수요 예측)

  • Choi, Gee-Seon;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Kyung-Woo;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we develop an ELM(Extreme Learning Machine) based short-tenn water demand prediction algorithm which solves overfitting problem of MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron) and has quick training time. To show effectiveness of proposed method, we analyzed time series data collected in A water treatment plant at Chung-Nam province during $2007{\sim}2008$ years and used the selected data for the verification of developed algorithm. According to the experimental results, MLP model showed 5.82[%], but the proposed ELM based model showed 5.61[%] with respect to MAPE, respectively. Also, MLP model needed 7.57s training time, but ELM based model was 0.09s. Therefore, the proposed ELM based short-term water demand prediction model can be used to operate the water treatment plant effectively.

Development of Optimal Decision-Making System for Rehabilitation of Water Distribution Systems Divided by small Division (상수관망의 구역별 최적개량 의사결정 시스템의 개발)

  • Baek Chun-Woo;Kim Seok-Woo;Kim Eung-Seok;Kim Joong-Hoon;Park Moo-Jong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.6 s.167
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    • pp.545-552
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to develop an optimal, long-term planning model for improvement of water distribution networks. The water distribution system is divided into sub-zones and the decision of improvement plan is made for each sub-zone. Costs for replacement, rehabilitation and repair, benefits including reduced pumping and leakage costs, and hydraulic reliability are considered to make optimal decision for improvement planning of water network. Harmony search algorithm is applied to optimize the system and hydraulic analysis model EPANET is interfaced with the optimal decision model to check the hydraulic reliability, The developed model is applied to actual water distribution system in Daegu-city, South Korea. The new model which use durability, conveyance and cost as a decision variable is different from existing methods which use only burying period and pipe type and can be used as optimal decision making system for water distribution network.