• Title/Summary/Keyword: Vulnerability index

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Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Indices under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 농업기후지수의 평가)

  • Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Roh, Kee-An;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Deog-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2008
  • The increase in average air temperature over the past 100 years in northern Asia including Korea is the greatest (about ${1.5}^{\circ}C$) among the various regions of the world. Considering a further warming projected by the IPCC, fluctuations of agro-climatic indices under climate change must precede an evaluation of vulnerability. The purpose of this study is to analyze how climate changes represented by global warming have altered agro-climatic indices in Korea over various time scales. Drought index during the rice-transplanting period of 15 May to 5 June has changed toward the favorable with recently increased precipitation in the Taebaek Alpine and Semi-Alpine Zone, and Yeongnam Basin and Inland Zone. The frequency of low temperature occurrence below $13^{\circ}C$ during the rice transplanting has decreased, while climatic production index (CPI) has fallen because of the decreased sunshine hour and increased temperature during the rice ripening period. We therefore concluded that the recent change of climate conditions was against the rice productivity in Korea.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in North Korea based on RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario (RCP8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 북한의 재해위험에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se-Jin;Kim, Byung-Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.809-818
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, in order to evaluate the impact of future climate change in North Korea, we collected the climate data of each station in North Korea provided by WMO and expanded the lack of time series data. Using the RCP climate change scenario, And the impact of climate change on disasters using local vulnerability to disasters in the event of a disaster. In order to evaluate this, the 11 cities in North Korea were evaluated for Design Rainfall Load, human risk index (HRI), and disaster impact index (DII) at each stage. As a result, Jaffe increased from C grade to B grade in the Future 1 period. At Future 2, North Hwanghae proved to be dangerous as it was, and Gangwon-do and Hwanghae-do provincial grade rose to C grade. In the case of Future 3, Pyongyang City dropped from C grade to D grade, Hamgyong and Gyeongsang City descend from B grade to C grade, Gangwon-do and Jagangdo descend from C grade to D grade and Pyongyang city descend from C grade to D grade. Respectively.

A Study on Integrated Assessment of Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Aisaster risk Based on GIS (GIS기법을 이용한 백두산 화산재해 종합평가 연구)

  • Xiao-Jiao, Ni;Choi, Yun Soo;Ying, Nan
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2014
  • Recently there are many disasters caused by volcanic activities such as the eruptions in Tungurahua, Ecuador(2014) and $Eyjafjallaj\ddot{o}kull$, Iceland(2010). Therefore, it is required to prepare countermeasures for the disasters. This study analyzes the Baekdu Mountain area, where is the risky area because it is active volcano, based on the observed data and scientific methods in order to assess a risk, produce a hazard map and analyze a degree of risk caused by the volcano. Firstly, it is reviewed for the research about the Baekdu mountain volcanic eruption in 1215(${\pm}15$ years) done by Liu Ruoxin. And the factors causing volcanic disaster, environmental effects, and vulnerability of Baekdu Mountain are assessed by the dataset, which includes the earthquake monitoring data, the volcanic deformation monitoring data, the volcanic fluid geochemical monitoring data, and the socio-economic statistics data. A hazard, especially caused by a volcano, distribution map for the Baekdu Mountain Area is produced by using the assessment results, and the map is used to establish the disaster risk index system which has the four phases. The first and second phases are very high risky area when the Baekdu Mountain erupts, and the third and fourth phases are less dangerous area. The map shows that the center of mountain has the first phase and the farther area from the center has the lower phase. Also, the western of Baekdu Mountain is more vulnerable to get the risk than the eastern when the factors causing volcanic disasters are equally applied. It seems to be caused by the lower stability of the environment and the higher vulnerability.

Evaluation of the future monthly groundwater level vulnerable period using LSTM model based observation data in Mihostream watershed (LSTM을 활용한 관측자료 기반 미호천 유역 미래 월 단위 지하수위 관리 취약 시기 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom;Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2022
  • This study proposed a evaluation of the monthly vulnerable period for groundwater level management in the Miho stream watershed and a technique for evaluating the vulnerable period for future groundwater level management using LSTM. Observation data from groundwater level and precipitation observation stations in the Miho stream watershed were collected, LSTM was constructed, predicted values for precipitation and groundwater levels from 2020 to 2022 were calculated, and future groundwater management was evaluated when vulnerable. In order to evaluate the vulnerable period of groundwater level management, the correlation between groundwater level and precipitation was considered, and weights were calculated to consider changes caused by climate change. As a result of the evaluation, the Miho stream watershed showed high vulnerability to underground water management in February, March, and June, and especially near the Cheonan Susin observation well, the vulnerability index for groundwater level management is expected to deteriorate in the future. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation of the vulnerable period of groundwater level management and the derivation of preemptive countermeasures to the problem of groundwater resources in the basin by presenting future prediction techniques using LSTM.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Changes in Potential Distribution of Pinus rigida Caused by Climate Changes in Korea (기후변화에 따른 리기다소나무림의 잠재 생육적지 분포 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Yong-Kyung;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Young-Hwan;Oh, Suhyun;Heo, Jun-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.3
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2012
  • In this research, it was intended to examine the vulnerability of Pinus rigida to climate changes, a major planting species in Korea. For this purpose, the distribution of Pinus rigida and its changes caused by climate changes were estimated based on the 'A1B' climate change scenario suggested by IPCC. Current distribution of Pinus rigida was analyzed by using the $4^{th}$Forest Type Map and its potential distribution in the recent year (2000), the near future (2050) and the further future (2100) were estimated by analyzing the optimized ranges of three climate indices - warmth index(WI), minimum temperature index of the coldest month (MTCI) and precipitation effectiveness index(PEI). The results showed that the estimated potential distribution of Pinus rigida declines to 56% in the near future(2050) and 15% in the further future (2100). This significant decline was found in most provinces in Korea. However, in Kangwon province where the average elevation is higher than other provinces, the area of potential distribution of Pinus rigida increases in the near future and the further future. Also the result indicated that the potential distribution of Pinus rigida migrates to higher elevation. The potential distributions estimated in this research have relatively high accuracy with consideration of classification accuracy (44.75%) and prediction probability (62.56%).

Correlation between Cognitive Functions and Psychotic Symptoms in Schizophrenic Patients (정신분열병 환자에서 인지기능 및 정신병적 증상의 상관관계)

  • Kim, Yong-Ku;Lee, Jung-Ae;Lee, So-Youn;Lee, Bun-Hee;Han, Chang-Su
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2006
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the cognitive functions would be correlated with psychotic symptoms and whether antipsychotic treatments would affect the cognitive functions after 8 weeks. Methods : The thirty-five schizophrenic patients were conducted in this study. The psychopathology was measured using PANSS. The memory function, executive function, and sustained attention were measured using Memory Assessment Scale(MAS), Wisconsin Card Sorting Test(WCST), and Vigilance(VIG) and Cognitrone(COG) in Vienna Test System. After 8 weeks of antipsychotic treatment, we retested the cognitive tests. Results : 1) The cognitive tests after the 8 week's treatment showed significant improvements in memory and executive function in the schizophrenic patients. On the other side, sustained attention did not show improvement. 2) The change of PANSS were correlated with perseverative response, perseverative error and total correct in WCST at baseline. WCST scores at baseline were correlated with negative symptoms, but not positive ones. Conclusion : These study suggests that 1) the impaired sustained attention could be a vulnerability marker in schizophrenia, 2) memory & executive function deficit could be reversible after treatment, and 3) medication might have a benefit in improving the cognitive functions in schizophrenia. Furthermore, the data supports that the better premorbid executive function was, the more favorable was the treatment response in schizophrenic patients. Finally, this study indicates that executive function might be an index of treatment improvement.

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Development of Indicator for Water Use Characteristic Evaluation (물이용특성평가를 위한 지표개발)

  • Choi, Si-Jung;Lim, Kwang-Suop;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Moon, Jang-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1707-1711
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    • 2009
  • 우리나라는 정치, 경제, 사회, 문화 등 여러 분야에서의 발전과 국민들의 생활수준의 향상으로 최근 들어 물 소비량이 급격히 증가하고 있다. 또한, 수자원 관련 정보에 대한 국민들의 관심이 크게 증가하고 있으며, 이에 따라 국가에서는 수자원 관련 정보제공 창구를 마련하여 다양한 물 관련 정보를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 아직까지 다양한 분석 정보에 대해서는 제공되는 정보 항목이 다양하지 않으며, 이러한 분석 정보에 대한 제공 요구는 증가 추세에 있다고 할 수 있다. 또한 효율적인 수자원 계획을 수립하고 시행하기 위해서는 먼저 지역의 수자원 관련 현황을 분석하여 활용 가능한 수자원의 양을 명확하게 파악하여야 한다. 이와 함께 해당지역의 물 이용량을 파악하고 시간 및 공간에 따른 이용 경향을 분석하여 그 정보를 제공함으로써 보다 효율적인 수자원 계획 수립의 기반이 마련될 수 있다. 한편 수자원 관련 정책 수립 시 의사결정을 지원하기 위해서는 관련 정보를 분석한 후 지표 및 지수화하여 제공할 필요가 있다. 그러나 우리나라에서는 아직까지 수자원 관련 분양에 대한 지표 및 지수가 적극적으로 활용되고 있지는 못한 상황으로 최근 들어 수자원(물이용, 치수 및 하천환경) 분야에서 지표 및 지수를 이용한 관련 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역 및 유역의 물이용 관련 현황 자료를 수집하여 분석함으로써 각종 수자원 관련 계획수립 및 정책 수립에 도움을 줄 수 있는 기반정보를 제시하고, 대중에게 정보를 제공하고자 한다. 물이용 특성을 평가할 수 있는 할 수 있는 개별지표를 개발하여 유역별로 분석하여 물이용 관련 현황을 분석하였으며 개별지표를 압력(pressure)-현상(state)-대책(response) 구조체계로 구성하여 중간지표를 분석하였다. 또한 이를 종합하여 유역의 물이용 현황을 파악할 수 있는 지수인 물이용 취약지수(Water use vulnerability index:WUVI)를 개발하여 물이용 관련 정보를 시공간적으로 분석함으로써 정부 및 지자체의 수자원 관련 정책 수립 등 업무 수행을 보다 효과적으로 지원할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Development of Cyber Security Assessment Methodology for the Instrumentation & Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants (원전 계측제어시스템에 대한 사이버보안성 평가 방법론 개발)

  • Kang, Young-Doo;Chong, Kil-To
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.3451-3457
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    • 2010
  • Cyber security assessment is the process of determining how effectively an entity being assessed meets specific cyber security objectives. Cyber security assessment helps to measure the degree of confidence one has and to identify that the managerial, technical and operational measures work as intended to protect the I&C systems and the information it processes. Recently, needs for cyber security on digitalized nuclear I&C systems are increased. However the overall cyber security program, including cyber security assessment, is not established on those systems. This paper presents the methodology of cyber security assessment which is appropriate for nuclear I&C systems. This methodology provides the qualitative assessments that may formulate recommendations to bridge the security risk gap through the incorporated criteria. This methodology may be useful to the nuclear organizations for assessing the weakness and strength of cyber security on nuclear I&C systems. It may be useful as an index to the developers, auditors, and regulators for reviewing the managerial, operational and technical cyber security controls, also.

Development of an Instrument based on the Protection Motivation Theory to Measure Factors Influencing Women's Intention to First Pap Test Practice

  • Hassani, Laleh;Dehdari, Tahereh;Hajizadeh, Ebrahim;Shojaeizadeh, Davoud;Abedini, Mehrandokht;Nedjat, Saharnaz
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.1227-1232
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    • 2014
  • Background: Given that there are many Iranian women who have never had a Pap smear, this study was designed to develop and validate a measurement tool based on the Protection Motivation Theory to assess factors influencing the Iranian women's intention to perform first Pap testing. Materials and Methods: In this psychometric research, to determine the Content Validity Index (CVI) and the Content Validity Ratio (CVR), a panel of experts (n=10) reviewed scale items. Reliability was estimated through the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (n=30) and internal consistency (n=240). Also, factor analysis (exploratory and conformity) was performed on the data of the sample women who had never had a Pap smear test (n=240). Results: A 26-item questionnaire was developed. The CVI and CVR scores of the scale were 0.89 and 0.90, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis loaded a 26-item with seven factors questionnaire (perceived vulnerability and severity, fear, response costs, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and protection motivation (or intention)) that jointly accounted for 72.76% of the observed variance. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated a good fit for the data. Internal consistency (range 0.70-0.93) and test-retest reliability (range 0.72-0.96) of sub-scales were acceptable. Conclusions: This study showed that the designed instrument was a valid and reliable tool for measuring the factors influencing the women's intention to perform their first Pap testing.