• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.5-12
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• 2015

The authors calculate the long-term predictability of GDP, domestic demand, investment, and net exports for Guangdong province, P.R. China from 2000 to 2013. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly data for this period is first co-integrated then the Granger causality test is applied to empirically assess the relationships among gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment, and net exports. There is a strong causality effect between investment and net exports in Guangdong province. However, the variance decomposition results indicate that exports respond to foreign shocks rather than domestic ones, making their impact on the Guangdong economy to predict. Results show the stimulating effect of domestic demand on GDP is larger than the stimulating effect of net exports and much larger than even the stimulating effect of investment. The analysis suggests that there are dynamic influences with various levels of persistence between GDP, consumption, investment, and net exports. Macroeconomic policy adjustments are urgently required to expand domestic demand and thereby stimulate economic growth in Guangdong province.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.127-141
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• 2019

In this study, the relationship between Baltic Dry Index(BDI) and maritime trade volume in the dry cargo market was verified using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Data was analyzed from 1992 to 2018 for iron ore, steam coal, coking coal, grain, and minor bulks of maritime trade volume and BDI. Granger causality analysis showed that the BDI affects the trade volume of coking coal and minor bulks but the trade volume of iron ore, steam coal and grain do not correlate with the BDI freight index. Impulse response analysis showed that the shock of BDI had the greatest impact on coking coal at the two years lag and the impact was negligible at the ten years lag. In addition, the shock of BDI on minor cargoes was strongest at the three years lag, and were negligible at the ten years lag. This study examined the relationship between maritime trade volume and BDI in the dry bulk shipping market in which uncertainty is high. As a result of this study, there is an economic aspect of sustainability that has helped the risk management of shipping companies. In addition, it is significant from an academic point of view that the long-term relationship between the two time series was analyzed through the causality test between variables. However, it is necessary to develop a forecasting model that will help decision makers in maritime markets using more sophisticated methods such as the Bayesian VAR model.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

본고(本稿)에서는 현재의 경제상황을 잘 반영하는 건설투자활동(建設投資活動)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型)을 정립하고자 먼저 관련 시계열자료의 안정성(安定性) 여부(與否)와 순환성(循環性), 계절성(季節性)의 특성을 살펴본 후 여러 단기모형의 예측력(豫測力), 정합성(整合性), 설명력(說明力)을 비교 검토했다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)과 자기상관계수(自己相關係數) 스펙트랄 밀도함수 분석의 결과, 건설관련 시계열자료들이 대체로 단위근(單位根)을 갖지 않음으로써 안정적이고 주기적인 순환변동을 하고 있으며, 시차변수의 설명력이 높은 특성을 나타내었다. 또한 건설투자자료의 특성이 선행지표(先行指標)인 건축허가연면적(建築許可延面積) 및 건설수주액(建設受注額)과 아주 유사하여 건설투자 단기예측에 있어서 두 지표 사이의 시차관계(時差關係) 파악이 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 제(第)III장(章)에서는 단변량(單變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로 ARIMA모형(模型)과 승법선형추세예측모형(乘法線型趨勢豫測模型)을, 다변량(多變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로는 첫째, 선행지표(先行指標)를 이용한 1차자기회귀모형(次自己回歸模型), VAR모형(模型), 둘째 GNP자료를 이용한 거시경제모형의 단순한 축약형모형(縮約型模型)과 VAR모형(模型)을 제시하고 이들을 비교 평가하였다. 이에 따르면 단변량 시계열모형보다는 다변량 시계열모형이 시간이 경과할수록 예측오차(豫測誤差)가 커지지 않는다는 점에서 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 다변량모형 중에서도 벡터자기회귀모형이 여타 모형보다 절대예측오차평균(絶對豫測誤差平均), 평균자승근(平均自乘根) 퍼센트 오차(誤差), 결정계수(決定係數) 등 모든 면에서 우수한 것으로 평가되었다. 이는 최근 건설투자가 추세에서 벗어난 급증세를 지속하고 있음을 고려할 때 타당한 결론이라 생각된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2017

This study investigates the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for six Middle Eastern countries, namely, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia before and during (after) the 2007 global financial crisis for the period between January 2004 and September 2015. The sample is divided into two sub-periods, that is, the period from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 and the period from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2015, to represent the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period, respectively. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in a multivariate framework (including two control variables, inflation rates and oil prices) the results suggest that in the case of Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there exists bidirectional causalities after the crisis period but not the before. The opposite status is available for the case of Iran. In the case of Oman, there is bidirectional causality between the variables of interest in both periods. The results also reveal that the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has become stronger after the 2007 global financial crisis. Overall, the results of this study indicate that fluctuations in foreign exchange markets can significantly affect stock markets in the Middle East.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.591-599
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• 2020

This study examines how the health of the banks in ASEAN-3 countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand respond to the change in exchange rates and foreign interest rates in four large economies. The transmissions of the two external factors through domestic factors in each ASEAN-3 countries eventually affects Non-Performing Loan (NPL) of commercial banks. This study uses the monthly time series data and the renowned Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model comprising five variables, namely exchange rate, foreign interest rate, domestic interest rate, money supply, and non-performing loan (NPL). The results indicate that there are different effects between ASEAN-3 countries, which can be classified as short-run effect and long-run effect. In the long run effect, external factors have a dominant role in determining NPL in ASEAN-3 countries. Yuan has the biggest effect on Malaysia's NPL, while Indonesia is more affected by European interest rates rather than the fluctuation of the US currency and China's interest rates. Among ASEAN-3 countries, Malaysia is the one that is the most vulnerable to external factors. While Thailand's NPL is affected dominantly by domestic factors. This study shows that the Fed Funds Rate (US official interest rate) is not always the dominant factor affecting the health of domestic banks in ASEAN-3.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2002년도 ITC-CSCC -3
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• pp.1404-1407
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• 2002

Although we look at objects as 2D images through our eyes, we can reconstruct the shape and/or depth of objects. In order to realize this ability using computers, it is required that the method which can estimate the 3D features of object from 2D images. As feature which represents 3D shapes effectively, three dimensional vector autoregressive model is pro- posed. If this feature is associated other feature of 2D shape, then above aim might be achieved. On the other hand, as feature which represents 2D shapes, quasi moment features is proposed. As the first step of association of these features, we constructed real time simulator that computes both of two features concurrently from object data (3D curves) . This simulator can also rotate object and estimate the rotation The method using 3D VAR model estimates the rotation correctly, but the estimation by quasi moment features includes much errors. This reason would be that projected images are constructed by the points only, and doesn't have enough sizes to estimate the correct 3D rotation parameters.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.1113-1119
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• 2021

This study aims to determine the impact of the news coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic on the composite stocks' movement (IHSG) in Indonesia. This study used secondary data of daily time series with an observation range of March 2020-June 2020. This study used three main variables, namely, COVID-19 news, the daily price of a composite stock market index (IHSG), and interest rate. This study clarifies pandemic news into two forms to facilitate quantitative analysis, namely, good news and bad news. Both pandemic news conditions, which have been clarified, are then processed into the index and reprocessed along with two other variables using vector autoregressive (VAR). The results showed that the good news have a dominant effect on developing the composite stock price index (IHSG) in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the good news dominates the composite stock price index (IHSG) movement in Indonesia, the bad news must also be anticipated. By implementing a series of macroeconomic policies that follow the conditions of the composite stock price index (IHSG) movements on the stock exchange floor, the bad news response can decrease the potential for a decline in investor confidence, so that the financial system's macroeconomic stability is maintained.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2022

Oil prices have become more volatile as a result of global economic contraction and control measures. Before and during the COVID-19 crisis, this study examines the relationship between oil price swings and daily stock returns in the power sector. The impact is investigated using a panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality tests are used to see if oil prices are effective in predicting returns. The dynamic impact of supply shocks is studied using Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). From January 2011 to May 2021, the study used daily data from all listed power sector enterprises on the Pakistan stock exchange. To investigate the differences in reactions between the Pre-COVID and COVID eras, the sample was separated into two groups. Oil shocks are inversely associated with daily firm stock returns. The conclusions are further supported by the lack of impact of stock prices on oil prices. The relationship, however, deteriorates during the COVID pandemic. We could not uncover any evidence of a significant relationship. In developing countries that rely on oil imports, the study sheds light on the utility of oil price shocks in daily stock return predictions.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제13권12호
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• pp.33-39
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• 2022

Purpose: This research investigates the paths of some important economic variables: government domestic product (GDP), capital accumulation, unemployment rates. Decreasing GDP, declining capital accumulation and higher unemployment affect to South Korea economy. The macroeconomic policies discussed are all capital financed accumulation policy and an enactment of unemployment regulation. Research design, data and methodology: The GDP, capital accumulation rates and unemployment rates are the main macroeconomic issues in the South Korea. This research studies the correlations of the GDP, capital accumulation, and unemployment rates by time series data from 2000 to 2005 in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Results: The first, GDP relates a positive effect between the GDP and capital accumulation in the long term. The second, there is the negative relationship between GDP and unemployment rates. Economic growth was strongly supported by employment growth and by declining unemployment. The third, There is positive relationship between unemployment rates and capital accumulation. Conclusions: This research provides that fiscal policy introduce to increasing GDP, private investments and employment rates. The GDP should be major on capital accumulation to increase employment rates in South Korea.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.95-140
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• 2024

This study empirically investigates the international transmission of China's uncertainty shocks. It estimates a time-varying parameter Bayesian global structural vector autoregressive model (TVP-BGVAR) using time series data for 33 countries to evaluate heterogeneous international linkage across countries and time. Uncertainty shocks are identified via sign restrictions. The empirical results reveal that an increase in uncertainty in China negatively affects the global economy, but those effects significantly vary over time. The effects of China's uncertainty shocks on the global economy have been significantly altered by China's WTO accession, the global financial crisis, and the recent US-China trade conflict. Furthermore, the effects of China's uncertainty shocks, typically on inflation, differ significantly across countries. Moreover, Trade openness appears crucial in explaining heterogeneous GDP responses across countries, whereas the international dimension of monetary policy appears to be important in explaining heterogeneous inflation responses across countries.