• Title/Summary/Keyword: Value Net Analysis

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Analysis of the 2015 reform plan of government employees pension system (GEPS) through monte carlo simulations (모의실험을 통한 2015년 공무원 연금제도 개정안의 효과분석)

  • Lee, Jieun;Song, Seongjoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2016
  • Due to the increasing fiscal burden and structural unbalanced premium/benefit costs, the new reform on the government employees pension system (GEPS) was considered even after the recent reform in 2009. This article examines the various effects of recent amendment in 2015 on GEPS using a simple probabilistic model. We consider effects on both sides, the pensioners and the government. First of all, the expected net value of pension payment for an individual employee was calculated based on the supposed survival distribution. The fairness of individual pension holders was compared using the benefit-cost ratio. Secondly, from pension system users' point of view, the default probability and the government subsidy were examined by Monte-carlo simulation. From the simulation experiment, we could see that the 2015 reform plan indeed reduces the default probability and the size of the fiscal burden of government by increasing the premium and decreasing the benefit. However, the size of the effect is not very standout at this moment because the number of new employees who are fully subject to the reform will be much smaller than the number of previous employees for a while. Thus, the effect of the reform is expected to appear in a slow manner.

The incremental information content of accruals components of earnings for stock return: Discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals (회계이익 구성요소의 추가적 정보가치가 주식수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Hyun-Dai
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.19-36
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    • 2004
  • This study examines the relation between accruals components of earnings and stock return. Earnings are decomposed into four components: discretionary accruals, nondiscretionary accruals, nondiscretionary income and cash flow from operations. Because reported earnings in financial statement consist of cash flow from operations plus total accruals. We decompose total accruals into a discretionary accruals and a nondiscretionary accruals separately. This paper examines the incremental informational content of discretionary accruals and nondiscretionary accruals components of net income by regressing return on earnings' components in multivariate models. The empirical analysis is conducted on a sample of 1,580 firm-years comprising 158 firms during 1991-2003. discretionary accruals are obtained by decomposing total accruals into discretionary and nondiscretionary accruals conponents, using a pooled variation of the Jones model(1991). These findings suggest that the discretionary accruals(measured using a variation the Jones model) is priced by the stock market. Specifically, the discretionary accruals and cash flow from operations are positively associated with the stock return, and also nondiscretionary income, discretionary accruals are positively associated with the stock return. While this result is consistent with the market prices the discretionary accruals because it captures value-relevant information. Additional test report evidence consistent with nondiscretionary accruals conveying information about the stock return.

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A Heuristic Model for Appropriation of Voyage Allocation under Specific Port Condition Using Regression Analyses - With a Case Analysis on POSCO-owned Port - (휴리스틱 회귀모델을 이용한 특정항만 조건하에서의 선형별 적정 항차배분에 관한 연구 - 포항제철(주) 전용항만 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Weonjae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 2013
  • This paper mainly deals with the appropriation of ship voyage allocation, using a heuristic regression model, in order to reduce total costs incurred in port, yard and at sea under the specific port condition. Because of different behavior of costs incurred in port, yard and at sea, an effort to minimize these costs by adjusting the number of voyages for three ship classes(50,000, 100,000, and 150,000-ton) should be made. For instance, if the port managers attempt to reduce the sea transport cost by increasing the annual allocated number of ship voyages classed 150,000-ton for economies of scale, they have no choice but to suffer a significant increase in queueing cost due to port congestion. To put it differently, there are trade-off relationships among the costs incurred in port, yard, and at sea. We utilized a computer simulation result to perform a couple of regression analyses in order to figure out the appropriate range of allocated number of voyages of each ship class using a heuristic approach. The detailed analytical results will be shown at the main paper. We also suggested a net present value(NPV) model to make a proper investment decision for an additional berth of 200,000-ton class that alleviates port congestion and reduces transport cost incurred both in port and at sea.

Direct Imaging of Polarization-induced Charge Distribution and Domain Switching using TEM

  • O, Sang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2013.08a
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    • pp.99-99
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    • 2013
  • In this talk, I will present two research works in progress, which are: i) mapping of piezoelectric polarization and associated charge density distribution in the heteroepitaxial InGaN/GaN multi-quantum well (MQW) structure of a light emitting diode (LED) by using inline electron holography and ii) in-situ observation of the polarization switching process of an ferroelectric Pb(Zr1-x,Tix)O3 (PZT) thin film capacitor under an applied electric field in transmission electron microscope (TEM). In the first part, I will show that strain as well as total charge density distributions can be mapped quantitatively across all the functional layers constituting a LED, including n-type GaN, InGaN/GaN MQWs, and p-type GaN with sub-nm spatial resolution (~0.8 nm) by using inline electron holography. The experimentally obtained strain maps were verified by comparison with finite element method simulations and confirmed that not only InGaN QWs (2.5 nm in thickness) but also GaN QBs (10 nm in thickness) in the MQW structure are strained complementary to accommodate the lattice misfit strain. Because of this complementary strain of GaN QBs, the strain gradient and also (piezoelectric) polarization gradient across the MQW changes more steeply than expected, resulting in more polarization charge density at the MQW interfaces than the typically expected value from the spontaneous polarization mismatch alone. By quantitative and comparative analysis of the total charge density map with the polarization charge map, we can clarify what extent of the polarization charges are compensated by the electrons supplied from the n-doped GaN QBs. Comparison with the simulated energy band diagrams with various screening parameters show that only 60% of the net polarization charges are compensated by the electrons from the GaN QBs, which results in the internal field of ~2.0 MV cm-1 across each pair of GaN/InGaN of the MQW structure. In the second part of my talk, I will present in-situ observations of the polarization switching process of a planar Ni/PZT/SrRuO3 capacitor using TEM. We observed the preferential, but asymmetric, nucleation and forward growth of switched c-domains at the PZT/electrode interfaces arising from the built-in electric field beneath each interface. The subsequent sideways growth was inhibited by the depolarization field due to the imperfect charge compensation at the counter electrode and preexisting a-domain walls, leading to asymmetric switching. It was found that the preexisting a-domains split into fine a- and c-domains constituting a $90^{\circ}$ stripe domain pattern during the $180^{\circ}$ polarization switching process, revealing that these domains also actively participated in the out-of-plane polarization switching. The real-time observations uncovered the origin of the switching asymmetry and further clarified the importance of charged domain walls and the interfaces with electrodes in the ferroelectric switching processes.

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Analysis of Fuel Marginal Price for Biomass Power Plant - On the Basis of China Biomass Power Plant - (바이오매스 발전소 연료한계단가 분석 - 중국 바이오매스 발전소를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Cheol;Sa, Jae-Hwan;Kim, YunSoung;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.219-226
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    • 2010
  • This study is analyzed the financial feasibility of biomass power plant in China in terms of fuel marginal price of biomass power plant. The range of fuel price is 150~300 RMB and IRR(Internal Rate of Return), NPV(Net Present Value), DSCR(Debt Service Coverage Ratio) and operation time are analyzed by 10 RMB from 150 RMB. The sensitivity of IRR went down by 1.35 on average. The sensibility of NPV showed big difference by 20% on 260 RMB and 270 RMB. In addition, DSCR of loan is at 1.0 at raw cost of 242 RMB and at lower than 1.0 when the raw cost over 242 RMB. It means that the pay-off of principal and interest of the loan is expected to be difficult in that case. The operation time of power plant should be 88% against standard operation time to maintain over 1.0 of DSCR. Therefore, the factors affecting the cost of raw material to build the power plant and to operate it should be prioritized.

A Business Model for Offshore Integrated Drilling Commissioning in Korea and Related Economic Analysis (우리나라 해양시추설비 통합시운전 사업 모델의 개발 및 경제성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Woo;Cheon, Young-Wook;Shin, Sang-Hoon;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.102-110
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    • 2019
  • The shipbuilding and offshore plant industry of Korea is important and leads Korea's economic growth, designated as the 1st to 4th export items in Korea in terms of export contribution over the period from 2011 to 2015. This study proposes ways to improve the national competitiveness of Korean shipyards in the global offshore drilling market by reviewing a business model for providing an integrated offshore drilling commissioning service in Korea. This commissioning service model, which was attempted in 2014, was reviewed, and a new proposed business model for overcoming the limitations of the previous model and activating further business was evaluated. As a result of an economic evaluation, it was found that a 150-meter water depth model is economically more effective. As the number of integrated commissions increased from 2 to 5 times per year, NPV, IRR and B/C ratios increased and the fee per use decreased. Therefore, for offshore drilling facilities constructed and delivered in Korea, it will be necessary to encourage integrated offshore commissioning.

Hysteretic characteristics of steel plate shear walls: Effects of openings

  • Ali, Mustafa M.;Osman, S.A.;Yatim, M.Y.M.;A.W., Al Zand
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.76 no.6
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    • pp.687-708
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    • 2020
  • Openings in steel plate shear walls (SPSWs) are usually used for decorative designs, crossing locations of multiple utilities and/or structural objectives. However, earlier studies showed that generating an opening in an SPSW has a negative effect on the cyclic performance of the SPSW. Therefore, this study proposes tripling or doubling the steel-sheet-plate (SSP) layer and stiffening the opening of the SPSW to provide a solution to undesirable opening effects, improve the SPSW performance and provide the infill option of potential strengthening measures after the construction stage. The study aims to investigate the impact of SSP doubling with a stiffened opening on the cyclic behaviour, expand the essential data required by structural designers and quantify the SPSW performance factors. Validated numerical models were adopted to identify the influence of the chosen parameters on the cyclic capacity, energy dissipation, ductility, seismic performance factors (SPF) and stiffness of the suggested method. A finite Element (FE) analysis was performed via Abaqus/CAE software on half-scale single-story models of SPSWs exposed to cyclic loading. The key parameters included the number of SSP layers, the opening size ratios corresponding to the net width of the SSP, and the opening shape. The findings showed that the proposed assembly method found a negligible influence in the shear capacity with opening sizes of 10, 15, 20%. However, a deterioration in the wall strength was observed for openings with sizes of 25% and 30%. The circular opening is preferable compared with the square opening. Moreover, for all the models, the average value of the obtained ductility did not show substantial changes and the ultimate shear resistance was achieved after reaching a drift ratio of 4.36%. Additionally, the equivalent sectional area of the SSP in the twin and triple configuration of the SPSWs demonstrated approximately similar results. Compared with the single SSP layer, the proposed configuration of the twin SSP layer with a stiffened opening suggest to more sufficiency create SSP openings in the SPSW compared to that of other configurations. Finally, a tabular SPF quantification is exhibited for SPSWs with openings.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction and Economic Benefit Evaluation of Carbon Mineralization Technology using CFBC Ash (순환유동층 석탄재를 이용한 탄소광물화 기술의 온실가스 배출 저감량 및 경제성 분석)

  • Jung, Euntae;Kim, Jeongyun
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.40-52
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the amount of carbon dioxide reduction and economic benefits of detailed processes of CO2 6,000 tons plant facilities with mineral carbonation technology using carbon dioxide and coal materials emitted from domestic circulating fluidized bed combustion power plants. Coal ash reacted with carbon dioxide through carbon mineralization facilities is produced as a complex carbonate and used as a construction material, accompanied by a greenhouse gas reduction. In addition, it is possible to generate profits from the sales of complex carbonates and carbon credits produced in the process. The actual carbon dioxide reduction per ton of complex carbonate production was calculated as 45.8 kgCO2eq, and the annual carbon dioxide reduction was calculated as 805.3 tonCO2, and the benefit-cost ratio (B/C Ratio) is 1.04, the internal rate return (IRR) is 10.65 % and the net present value (NPV) is KRW 24,713,465 won, which is considered economical. Carbon mineralization technology is one of the best solutions to reduce carbon dioxide considering future carbon dioxide reduction and economic potential.

Value of Intraplaque Neovascularization on Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Predicting Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaque

  • Zhe Huang;Xue-Qing Cheng;Ya-Ni Liu;Xiao-Jun Bi;You-Bin Deng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.338-348
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Patients with a history of ischemic stroke are at risk for a second ischemic stroke. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque enhancement on perfluorobutane microbubble contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) and future recurrent stroke, and to determine whether plaque enhancement can contribute to risk assessment for recurrent stroke compared with the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). Materials and Methods: This prospective study screened 151 patients with recent ischemic stroke and carotid atherosclerotic plaques at our hospital between August 2020 and December 2020. A total of 149 eligible patients underwent carotid CEUS, and 130 patients who were followed up for 15-27 months or until stroke recurrence were analyzed. Plaque enhancement on CEUS was investigated as a possible risk factor for stroke recurrence and as a possible adjunct to ESRS. Results: During follow-up, 25 patients (19.2%) experienced recurrent stroke. Patients with plaque enhancement on CEUS had an increased risk of stroke recurrence events (22/73, 30.1%) compared to those without plaque enhancement (3/57, 5.3%), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 38.264 (95% confidence interval [CI]:14.975-97.767; P < 0.001) according to a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model analysis, indicating that the presence of carotid plaque enhancement was a significant independent predictor of recurrent stroke. When plaque enhancement was added to the ESRS, the HR for stroke recurrence in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (2.188; 95% CI, 0.025-3.388) was greater than that of the ESRS alone (1.706; 95% CI, 0.810-9.014). A net of 32.0% of the recurrence group was reclassified upward appropriately by the addition of plaque enhancement to the ESRS. Conclusion: Carotid plaque enhancement was a significant and independent predictor of stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. Furthermore, the addition of plaque enhancement improved the risk stratification capability of the ESRS.

Multivariate statistical study on naturally occurring radioactive materials and radiation hazards in lakes around a Chinese petroleum industrial area

  • Yan Shi;Junfeng Zhao;Baiyao Ding;Yue Zhang;Zhigang Li;Mohsen M.M.Ali;Tuya Siqin;Hongtao Zhao;Yongjun Liu;Weiguo Jiang;Peng Wu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.2182-2189
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    • 2024
  • The high-purity germanium gamma-ray spectrometer was used to measure the radioisotope in surface water of lakes in a Chinee petroleum industrial area. 92 samples were collected from surface water of three lakes. Activity concentrations of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K in three lakes were measured, distributed in the range of 101.8-209.4, 192.1-224.9 and 335.0-548.9 mBq/L, respectively. Results were all within the limits of WHO and China. Potential environmental and health risks were assessed by calculating some radiation hazard indicators, radium equivalent index, annual effective dose, excess lifetime cancer risk, absorbed dose rate, external hazard index, internal hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent, activity utilization index and representative gamma index, which ranged 0.38-0.54 Bq/L, 0.06-0.08 mSv/y, 0.23 × 10-3-0.31 × 10-3, 0.17-0.24 nGy/h, 1.01 × 10-3-1.46 × 10-3, 1.55 × 10-3-2.02 × 10-3, 1.16-1.66 μSv/y, 3.13 × 10-3-4.45 × 10-3 and 2.60 × 10-3-3.77 × 10-3. The results were all at acceptable levels, meaning no impact on human health. The relationship between the electrical conductivity of surface water and the activity concentration of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K was evaluated. The electrical conductivity value was 0.241-0.369 mS/cm, showing a significant correlation coefficient between 226Ra and 40K and electrical conductivity. Multivariate statistical methods were used to determine the relationship between the activity concentrations of 232Th, 226Ra, and 40K, radiation hazard indicators and electrical conductivity.