• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.258-265
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• 2017

At the early stage of the development of high speed propulsion systems, the designers suffer from the lack of both the quantity and the quality of test data. In that situation, the associated uncertainties could not be modeled as probabilistic distribution since probabilistic modelling requires large amount of data. In this paper, instead, the information provided by experts based on their experience and engineering knowledge was used to model uncertainty using the evidence theory. In designing the DCR(Dual Combustion Ramjet) engine, the combustion efficiencies, not well understood and little data existing, are assumed to have been provided by experts. And the uncertainties are quantified by Evidence theory. The quantified uncertainties are incorporated into the optimization. The design variables, area of inlet and area of combustor exit, have been found while satisfying reliability margins of thrust and thermal choking. The results show a reasonable design of the engine under the uncertain circumstances.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.349-375
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• 2016

The tension of an arch bridge hanger is estimated using a number of experimentally identified modal frequencies. The hanger is connected through metallic plates to the bridge deck and arch. Two different categories of model classes are considered to simulate the vibrations of the hanger: an analytical model based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, and a high-fidelity finite element (FE) model. A Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection method is used to discriminate between models, select the best model, and estimate the hanger tension and its uncertainty. It is demonstrated that the end plate connections and boundary conditions of the hanger due to the flexibility of the deck/arch significantly affect the estimate of the axial load and its uncertainty. A fixed-end high fidelity FE model of the hanger underestimates the hanger tension by more than 20 compared to a baseline FE model with flexible supports. Simplified beam models can give fairly accurate results, close to the ones obtained from the high fidelity FE model with flexible support conditions, provided that the concept of equivalent length is introduced and/or end rotational springs are included to simulate the flexibility of the hanger ends. The effect of the number of experimentally identified modal frequencies on the estimates of the hanger tension and its uncertainty is investigated.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.321-336
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• 2022

Model uncertainty is a key factor that could influence the accuracy and reliability of numerical model-based analysis. It is necessary to acquire an appropriate updating approach which could search and determine the realistic model parameter values from measurements. In this paper, the Bayesian model updating theory combined with the transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) method and K-means cluster analysis is utilized in the updating of the structural model parameters. Kriging and polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) are employed to generate surrogate models to reduce the computational burden in TMCMC. The selected updating approaches are applied to three structural examples with different complexity, including a two-storey frame, a ten-storey frame, and the national stadium model. These models stand for the low-dimensional linear model, the high-dimensional linear model, and the nonlinear model, respectively. The performances of updating in these three models are assessed in terms of the prediction uncertainty, numerical efforts, and prior information. This study also investigates the updating scenarios using the analytical approach and surrogate models. The uncertainty quantification in the Bayesian approach is further discussed to verify the validity and accuracy of the surrogate models. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the surrogate model-based updating approaches are discussed for different structural complexity. The possibility of utilizing the boosting algorithm as an ensemble learning method for improving the surrogate models is also presented.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.1448-1459
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• 2023

A key element of the safety analysis is Loss of Coolant Analysis (LOCA) which must be performed using system thermal-hydraulic codes. These codes are extensively validated against separate effect and integral experiments. RELAP/SCDAPSIM is one such code that may be used to predict LBLOCA response in a CANDU reactor. The RD-14M experiment selected for the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty study is a 44 mm (22.7%) inlet header break test with no Emergency Coolant Injection. This work has two objectives first is to simulate pipe break with RELAP and compare these results to those available from experiment and from comparable TRACE calculations. The second objective is to quantify uncertainty in the fuel element sheath (FES) temperature arising from model coefficient as well as input parameter uncertainties using Integrated Uncertainty Analysis package. RELAP calculated results are found to be in good agreement with those of TRACE and with those of experiments. The base case maximum FES temperature is 335.5 ℃ while that of 95% confidence 95^th percentile is 407.41 ℃ for the first order Wilk's formula. The experimental measurements fall within the predicted band and the trends and sensitivities are similar to those reported for the TRACE code.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.18-31
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• 2023

Exploring artificial intelligence and machine learning for nuclear safety has witnessed increased interest in recent years. To contribute to this area of research, a machine learning model capable of accurately predicting nuclear power plant response with minimal computational cost is proposed. To develop a robust machine learning model, the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach was used to generate a database to train three models and select the best of the three. The BEPU analysis was performed by coupling Dakota platform with the best estimate thermal hydraulics code RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD 3.4. The Code Scaling Applicability and Uncertainty approach was adopted, along with Wilks' theorem to obtain a statistically representative sample that satisfies the USNRC 95/95 rule with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The generated database was used to train three models based on Recurrent Neural Networks; specifically, Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, and a hybrid model with Long Short-Term Memory coupled to Convolutional Neural Network. In this paper, the System Engineering approach was utilized to identify requirements, stakeholders, and functional and physical architecture to develop this project and ensure success in verification and validation activities necessary to ensure the efficient development of ML meta-models capable of predicting of the nuclear power plant response.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.755-763
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• 2020

The critical flow phenomenon has been studied because of its significant effect for design basis accidents in nuclear power plants. Transition points from thermal non-equilibrium to equilibrium are different according to the geometric effect on the critical flow. This study evaluates the uncertainty parameters of the critical flow model for analysis of DBA (Design Basis Accident) with the MARS-KS (Multi-dimensional Analysis for Reactor Safety-KINS Standard) code used as an independent regulatory assessment. The uncertainty of the critical flow model is represented by three parameters including the thermal non-equilibrium factor, discharge coefficient, and length to diameter (L/D) ratio, and their ranges are determined using large-scale Marviken test data. The uncertainty range of the thermal non-equilibrium factor is updated by the MCDA (Model Calibration through Data Assimilation) method. The updated uncertainty range is confirmed using an LBLOCA (Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident) experiment in the LOFT (Loss of Fluid Test) facility. The uncertainty ranges are also used to calculate an LBLOCA of the APR (Advanced Power Reactor) 1400 NPP (Nuclear Power Plants), focusing on the effect of the PCT (Peak Cladding Temperature). The results reveal that break flow is strongly dependent on the degree of the thermal non-equilibrium state in a ruptured pipe with a small L/D ratio. Moreover, this study provides the method to handle the thermal non-equilibrium factor, discharge coefficient, and length to diameter (L/D) ratio in the system code.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.267-279
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• 2023

Data modelling and interpretation for structural health monitoring (SHM) field data are critical for evaluating structural performance and quantifying the vulnerability of infrastructure systems. In order to improve the data modelling accuracy, and extend the application range from data regression analysis to out-of-sample forecasting analysis, an improved most likely heteroscedastic Gaussian process (iMLHGP) methodology is proposed in this study by the incorporation of the outof-sample forecasting algorithm. The proposed iMLHGP method overcomes this limitation of constant variance of Gaussian process (GP), and can be used for estimating non-stationary typhoon-induced response statistics with high volatility. The first attempt at performing data regression and forecasting analysis on structural responses using the proposed iMLHGP method has been presented by applying it to real-world filed SHM data from an instrumented cable-stay bridge during typhoon events. Uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis were also carried out to investigate the influence of typhoons on bridge strain data. Results show that the iMLHGP method has high accuracy in both regression and out-of-sample forecasting. The iMLHGP framework takes both data heteroscedasticity and accurate analytical processing of noise variance (replace with a point estimation on the most likely value) into account to avoid the intensive computational effort. According to uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis results, the uncertainties of strain measurements are affected by both traffic and wind speed. The overall change of bridge strain is affected by temperature, and the local fluctuation is greatly affected by wind speed in typhoon conditions.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10b
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• pp.372-377
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• 1993

In this paper, we investigate a set-membership identification approach to the quantification of an upper bound of model uncertainty in frequency domain, which is required in the H$_{\infty}$ robust control system design. First we formulate this problem as a set-membership identification of a nominal model error in the presence f unknown noise input with unknown bound, while the ordinary set-membership approaches assume that an upper bound of the uncertain input is known. For this purpose, the proposed algorithm includes the estimation of the bound of the uncertain input. thus the proposed method can obtain the hard bound of the model error in frequency domain as well as a parametric lower-order nominal model. Finally numerical simulation results are shown to confirm the validity of the presented algorithm..

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.259-263
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• 2007

The choice of input distribution in quantitative risk assessments modeling is of great importance to get unbiased overall estimates, although it is difficult to characterize them in situations where data available are too sparse or small. The present study is particularly concerned with accommodation of uncertainties commonly encountered in the practice of modeling. The authors applied parametric and non-parametric bootstrap simulation methods which consist of re-sampling with replacement, in together with the classical Student-t statistics based on the normal distribution. The implications of these methods were demonstrated through an empirical analysis of trade volume from the amount of chicken and pork meat imported to Korea during the period of 1998-2005. The results of bootstrap method were comparable to the classical techniques, indicating that bootstrap can be an alternative approach in a specific context of trade volume. We also illustrated on what extent the bias corrected and accelerated non-parametric bootstrap method produces different estimate of interest, as compared by non-parametric bootstrap method.

• Journal of Convergence Society for SMB
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.23-30
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• 2013

In this paper, fuzzy entropy and similarity measure to measure the uncertainty and similarity of data as real value were introduced. Design of fuzzy entropy and similarity measure were illustrated and proved. Obtained measures were applied to the calculating process and discussed. Extension of data quantification results such as decision making and fuzzy game theory were also discussed.