• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.475-488
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• 2017

To simulate accurate drought, a drought index is needed to reflect the hydrometeorological phenomenon. Several studies have been conducted in Korea using the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) to simulate hydrological drought. This study analyzed the limitations of MSWSI and quantified the uncertainties of MSWSI. The influence of hydrometeorological components selected as the MSWSI components was analyzed. Although the previous MSWSI dealt with only one observation for each input component such as streamflow, ground water level, precipitation, and dam inflow, this study included dam storage level and dam release as suitable characteristics of the sub-basins, and used the areal-average precipitation obtained from several observations. From the MSWSI simulations of 2001 and 2006 drought events, MSWSI of this study successfully simulated drought because MSWSI of this study followed the trend of observing the hydrometeorological data and then the accuracy of the drought simulation results was affected by the selection of the input component on the MSWSI. The influence of the selection of the probability distributions to input components on the MSWSI was analyzed, including various criteria: the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for precipitation data; normal and Gumbel distributions for streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal and Gumbel distributions for dam inflow, storage level, and release discharge data; and 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. Then, the maximum 36 MSWSIs were calculated for each sub-basin, and the ranges of MSWSI differed significantly according to the selection of probability distributions. Therefore, it was confirmed that the MSWSI results may differ depending on the probability distribution. The uncertainty occurred due to the selection of MSWSI input components and the probability distributions were quantified using the maximum entropy. The uncertainty thus increased as the number of input components increased and the uncertainty of MSWSI also increased with the application of probability distributions of input components during the flood season.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.151-159
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• 2018

Accident rate in the construction industry of South Korea is increasing every year, and it represents the highest percentage among industries. This shows that activities performed to prevent safety accidents in the country are not efficient when it comes to reduce the accident rate. In order to resolve this issue, a model for the prediction of human accidents should be established. In addition, it is required a quantification study based on pattern of human accidents. Therefore, the objective of this study is to quantify uncertainty of human accidents risk and predict how to change in various circumstances by using Monte Carlo Simulation. To achieve the objective, first, pattern of human accidents was defined. Second, insurance claim payout and information of human accidents during 14 years in construction site were collected. Third, descriptive analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of the accident pattern. Fourth, to quantitatively analyze the pattern of the human accidents, the population of each accident occurrence and payout were estimated. Finally, estimated populations was analyzed according to characteristics of distribution by using Monte carlo simulation. In the future, this study can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site and development of prediction models of human accident.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.561-574
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• 2018

In this paper, for efficiently reducing the computational cost of the model updating during the optimization process of damage detection, the structural response is evaluated using properly trained surrogate model. Furthermore, in practice uncertainties in the FE model parameters and modelling errors are inevitable. Hence, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The current work builds a framework for Probability Based Damage Detection (PBDD) of structures based on the best combination of metaheuristic optimization algorithm and surrogate models. To reach this goal, three popular metamodeling techniques including Cascade Feed Forward Neural Network (CFNN), Least Square Support Vector Machines (LS-SVMs) and Kriging are constructed, trained and tested in order to inspect features and faults of each algorithm. Furthermore, three wellknown optimization algorithms including Ideal Gas Molecular Movement (IGMM), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Bat Algorithm (BA) are utilized and the comparative results are presented accordingly. Furthermore, efficient schemes are implemented on these algorithms to improve their performance in handling problems with a large number of variables. By considering various indices for measuring the accuracy and computational time of PBDD process, the results indicate that combination of LS-SVM surrogate model by IGMM optimization algorithm have better performance in predicting the of damage compared with other methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.7 s.93
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• pp.81-90
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• 2006

It is important to clarify the relationship between traffic accidents and various influencing factors in order to reduce the number of traffic accidents. This study developed a traffic accident frequency prediction model using by multi-linear regression and qualification theories which are commonly applied in the field of traffic safety to verify the influences of various factors into the traffic accident frequency The data were collected on the Korean National Highway 17 which shows the highest accident frequencies and fatality rates in Chonbuk province. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the data, the fuzzy theory and neural network theory were applied. The neural network theory can provide fair learning performance by modeling the human neural system mathematically. Tn conclusion, this study focused on the practicability of the fuzzy reasoning theory and the neural network theory for traffic safety analysis.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.821-827
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• 2014

An isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (ID LC-MS/MS) method has been developed and applied to the determination of arsenobetaine (AsB, ${(CH_3)_3}^+AsCH_2COO^-$) from oyster candidate certified reference material (CRM). The exact matching isotope dilution approach was adopted for accurate determination of AsB using $^{13}C_2$-labeled AsB as an internal standard. Efficiencies of different AsB extraction methods were evaluated using a codfish reference material and a simple sonication method was selected as the method of choice for the certification of the oyster candidate CRM. The hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) combined with electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (ESI/MS/MS) in selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode was optimized for adequate chromatographic retention and robust quantification of AsB from codfish and oyster samples. By analyzing 12 subsamples taken from each 12 bottles systematically selected from the whole oyster CRM batch, the certified value of AsB was determined as $6.60mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}{\pm}0.31mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$ and it showed excellent between-bottle homogeneity of less than 0.42%, which is represented by relative standard deviation of 12 bottles from the CRM batch. The major source of uncertainty was the certified value of the AsB standard solution.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.287-294
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• 2017

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.15-15
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• 2015

기존 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 연구들은 거의 대부분 GCM의 불확실성이 가장 크다고 결론내리고 있으나, ES 불확실성과의 정량적 비교는 하지 못했으며, 기존 접근방법은 민감도 분석 수준에 머무르고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 각 단계별 불확실성을 포괄적으로 정량화하고 수행단계별 불확실성의 전파정도를 추정할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 첫째, 전체 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성 증가 정도, 각 단계별 불확실성의 비율을 제시할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 또한 불확실성을 정량적으로 추정할 수 있는 방법으로 maximum entropy(이하 ME)를 선정하였으며, 이를 본 연구에서 제시한 approach에서 적용성을 살펴보았다. 둘째, 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 단계별 정량화를 위해 2개 배출시나리오, 4개 GCM 시나리오, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하여 기본적 기후변화 영향평가 단계를 모두 수행하였다. 기존 approach에서는 GCMs의 변화율(89.34)이 가장 커 GCMs의 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으나 제시한 approach에서는 배출시나리오의 불확실성이 전체 대비 58.66 %로 기후변화 영향평가에서 가장 큰 불확실성 발생 원인으로 파악되었다. 모형 불확실성에서는 GCMs의 불확실성(전체 대비 33.57 %)이 가장 높게 나타났다. 또한 배출시나리오의 ME는 3.32, GCMs의 ME는 5.22, 상세화기법의 ME는 5.57, 수문모형의 ME는 5.66으로 단계적으로 불확실성이 증가하였다. 다음으로 유량과 강수를 이용하여 불확실성 정량화를 수행하였으며, 강수를 이용한 불확실성 정량화에서는 유량을 이용한 결과와 다르게 배출시나리오 다음으로 상세화기법의 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타나 어떤 수문변수에 초점을 두느냐에 따라 불확실성 정량화저감 노력 대상이 달라질 수 있음을 제시하였다. 마지막으로 자연변동성에 의한 불확실성이 기후변화 전체 불확실성의 45.47 % 정도로 나타났으며, 이는 미래 기후변화에 의해 발생하는 불확실성이 과거 자연변동보다 2배 이상으로서, 기후변화에 의한 미래전망의 불확실성이 매우 크게 증가한다는 매우 중요한 결과를 제시하였다.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.81-90
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• 2018

"The Framework Act on Low-Carbon Green Growth" specifies the requirements for the development and verification of emission factors for establishing reliable national greenhouse gas statistics. The scope of the regulations covers the development and validation of energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, land use, land use change and emission and absorption coefficients of the forestry and waste sector as defined in the 1996 IPCC Guideline and GPG 2000, The minerals sector to be covered in this study belongs to industrial processes. As a representative method for quantifying and evaluating GHG emission factors, there are emission grade quality grading and DARS (Data Rating Rating System) in the 'Procedures for Preparing Emission Factor Documents (1997)' reported by US-EPA. However, the above two methods are not specific and comprehensive, and lack the details for accurate emission factor verification. Therefore, there is a need for a method for verifying and quantifying certified greenhouse gas emission factors that reflects characteristics of each industry sector in Korea and accord with IPCC G/L and GHG target management. In this study, we conducted a weighted study on quantitative and evaluation lists of emission factor using questionnaires to develop a more accurate methodology for quantifying national greenhouse gas emission factors in the mineral sector. Quantification and evaluation of emission factor are classified into essential verification and quality evaluation. The essential verifications are : administrative compatibility, method of determining emission factors, emission characteristics, sampling methods and analysis methods, representativeness of data. The quality evaluations consisted of the quality control of the data, the accuracy of the measurement and analysis, the level of uncertainty, not directly affect the emission factor, but consisted of factors that determine data quality.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.777-788
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• 2021

Since aerosol has a relatively short duration and significant spatial variation, satellite observations become more important for the spatially and temporally continuous quantification of aerosol. However, optical remote sensing has the disadvantage that it cannot detect AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) for the regions covered by clouds or the regions with extremely high concentrations. Such missing values can increase the data uncertainty in the analyses of the Earth's environment. This paper presents a spatial gap-filling framework using a univariate statistical method such as DCT-PLS (Discrete Cosine Transform-based Penalized Least Square Regression) and FMM (Fast Matching Method) inpainting. We conducted a feasibility test for the hourly AOD product from AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager) between January 1 and December 31, 2019, and compared the accuracy statistics of the two spatial gap-filling methods. When the null-pixel area is not very large (null-pixel ratio < 0.6), the validation statistics of DCT-PLS and FMM techniques showed high accuracy of CC=0.988 (MAE=0.020) and CC=0.980 (MAE=0.028), respectively. Together with the AI-based gap-filling method using extra explanatory variables, the DCT-PLS and FMM techniques can be tested for the low-resolution images from the AMI (Advanced Meteorological Imager) of GK2A (Geostationary Korea Multi-purpose Satellite 2A), GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) and GOCI2 (Geostationary Ocean Color Imager) of GK2B (Geostationary Korea Multi-purpose Satellite 2B) and the high-resolution images from the CAS500 (Compact Advanced Satellite) series soon.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.36-48
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• 2022

As a valid numerical method to obtain a high-resolution result of a flow field, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) have been widely used to study coolant flow and heat transfer characteristics in fuel rod bundles. However, the time-consuming, iterative calculation of Navier-Stokes equations makes CFD unsuitable for the scenarios that require efficient simulation such as sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. To solve this problem, a reduced-order model (ROM) based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and machine learning (ML) is proposed to simulate the flow field efficiently. Firstly, a validated CFD model to output the flow field data set of the rod bundle is established. Secondly, based on the POD method, the modes and corresponding coefficients of the flow field were extracted. Then, an deep feed-forward neural network, due to its efficiency in approximating arbitrary functions and its ability to handle high-dimensional and strong nonlinear problems, is selected to build a model that maps the non-linear relationship between the mode coefficients and the boundary conditions. A trained surrogate model for modes coefficients prediction is obtained after a certain number of training iterations. Finally, the flow field is reconstructed by combining the product of the POD basis and coefficients. Based on the test dataset, an evaluation of the ROM is carried out. The evaluation results show that the proposed POD-ROM accurately describe the flow status of the fluid field in rod bundles with high resolution in only a few milliseconds.