• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty-propagation

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Dynamic Modeling and Path-tracking of Differential Drive Wheeled-Mobile Robots (구동토크의 제약을 갖는 차동 구륜이동로봇의 동역학 모델링과 경로추적)

  • Moon, Jong-Woo
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2002
  • In this paper are presented dynamic modeling and path-tracking of differential drive wheeled-mobile robots(WMRs) having the limited drive-torques. Instantaneously coincident coordinate system, force/torque propagation and Newton's equilibrium law are used to induce the dynamic model. When drive-torques generated by inverse dynamics exceed the limitation, we make wheeled-mobile robots follow the reference path by modifying the planned reference trajectory with time-scaling method. The controller is introduced to compensate for error owing to modeling uncertainty and measurement noise. And simulation results prove that method proposed by this paper is efficient.

Confidence region of identified parameters and optimal sensor locations based on sensitivity analysis

  • Kurita, Tetsushi;Matsui, Kunihito
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.117-134
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a computational method for a confidence region of identified parameters which are affected by measurement noise and error contained in prescribed parameters. The method is based on sensitivities of the identified parameters with respect to model parameter error and measurement noise along with the law of error propagation. By conducting numerical experiments on simple models, it is confirmed that the confidence region coincides well with the results of numerical experiments. Furthermore, the optimum arrangement of sensor locations is evaluated when uncertainty exists in prescribed parameters, based on the concept that square sum of coefficients of variations of identified results attains minimum. Good agreement of the theoretical results with those of numerical simulation confirmed validity of the theory.

Enhanced deep soft interference cancellation for multiuser symbol detection

  • Jihyung Kim;Junghyun Kim;Moon-Sik Lee
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.929-938
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    • 2023
  • The detection of all the symbols transmitted simultaneously in multiuser systems using limited wireless resources is challenging. Traditional model-based methods show high performance with perfect channel state information (CSI); however, severe performance degradation will occur if perfect CSI cannot be acquired. In contrast, data-driven methods perform slightly worse than model-based methods in terms of symbol error ratio performance in perfect CSI states; however, they are also able to overcome extreme performance degradation in imperfect CSI states. This study proposes a novel deep learning-based method by improving a state-of-the-art data-driven technique called deep soft interference cancellation (DSIC). The enhanced DSIC (EDSIC) method detects multiuser symbols in a fully sequential manner and uses an efficient neural network structure to ensure high performance. Additionally, error-propagation mitigation techniques are used to ensure robustness against channel uncertainty. The EDSIC guarantees a performance that is very close to the optimal performance of the existing model-based methods in perfect CSI environments and the best performance in imperfect CSI environments.

Formulation of a New En Score in the Proficiency Test

  • Chul-Young Yi;In Jung Kim;Jong In Park;Yun Ho Kim;Young Min Seong
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.16-19
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    • 2024
  • A new En score of the proficiency test (PT) is formulated; it is applicable when a correlation exists between the reference and participant's values. Based on the uncertainty propagation rule given in ISO/IEC Guide 98-3 (GUM:1995), the En score covering the correlation case is newly developed for the PT. The new En score will be applied in a future PT organized by the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) dosimetry team. The new En score will enhance measurement traceability and contribute to improving the quality management system of participants in the KRISS PT by avoiding performance underestimation.

Power Generation Cost Comparison of Nuclear and Coal Power Plants in Year 2001 under Future Korean Environmental Regulations -Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis- (미래의 한국의 환경규제여건에 따른 2001년도의 원자력과 석탄화력 발전단가비교 -민감도와 불확실도 분석-)

  • Lee, Byong-Whi;Oh, Sung-Ho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.18-31
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    • 1989
  • To analyze the impact of air pollution control on electricity generation cost, a computer program was developed. POGEN calculates levelized discounted power generation cost including additional air pollution control cost for coal power plant. Pollution subprogram calculates total capital and variable costs using governing equations for flue gas control. The costs are used as additional input for levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram. Pollution output for Rue Gas Desulphurization direct cost was verified using published cost data of well experienced industrialized countries. The power generation costs for the year 2001 were estimated by POGEN for three different regulatory scenarios imposed on coal power plant, and by levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram for nuclear power. Because of uncertainty expected in input variables for future plants, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were made to check the importance and uncertainty propagation of the input variables using Latin Hypercube Sampling and Multiple Least Square method. Most sensitive parameter for levelized discounted power generation cost is discount rate for both nuclear and coal. The control cost for flue gas alone reaches additional 9-11 mills/kWh with standard deviation less than 1.3 mills/kWh. This cost will be nearly 20% of power generation cost and 40% of one GW capacity coal power plant investment cost. With 90% confidence, the generation cost of nuclear power plant will be 32.6-51.9 mills/kWh, and for the coal power plant it will be 45.5-50.5 mills/kWh. Nuclear is favorable with 95% confidence under stringent future regulatory requirement in Korea.

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Bayesian networks-based probabilistic forecasting of hydrological drought considering drought propagation (가뭄의 전이 현상을 고려한 수문학적 가뭄에 대한 베이지안 네트워크 기반 확률 예측)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.11
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    • pp.769-779
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    • 2017
  • As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

Application of Fuzzy Math Simulation to Quantitative Risk Assessment in Pork Production (돈육 생산공정에서의 정량적 위해 평가에 fuzzy 연산의 적용)

  • Im, Myung-Nam;Lee, Seung-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.589-593
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of fuzzy math strategy to calculate variability and uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment. We compared the propagation of uncertainty using fuzzy math simulation with Monte Carlo simulation. The risk far Listeria monocytogenes contamination was estimated for carcass and processed pork by fuzzy math and Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. The data used in these simulations were taken from a recent report on pork production. In carcass, the mean values for the risk from fuzzy math and Monte Carlo simulations were -4.393 log $CFU/cm^2$ and -4.589 log $CFU/cm^2$, respectively; in processed pork, they were -4.185 log $CFU/cm^2$ and -4.466 log $CFU/cm^2$ respectively. The distribution of values obtained using the fuzzy math simulation included all of the results obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, fuzzy math simulation was found to be a good alternative to Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk assessment of pork production.

An Investigation of Turbine Blade Ejection Frequency Considering Common Cause Failure in Nuclear Power Plants (공통원인고장을 고려한 원전 터빈블레이드 비산빈도계산)

  • Oh, Ji-Yong;Chi, Moon-Goo;Hwang, Seok-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this research is to examine the probabilistic approach to evaluating turbine ejection frequency considering common-cause failure. This paper identifies basic turbine ejection mechanisms under high and low speeds and presents a detailed probabilistic methodology (fault tree) for assessing ejection frequency. The alpha factor methodology is applied to common-cause failure evaluations. The frequencies under different test schemes are compared and the propagation of uncertainty through the fault tree model is evaluated. The following conclusions were reached: (1) the turbine blade ejection frequency due to ductile failure under high speed is around 8.005E-7/yr; (2) if common-cause failure is considered, the frequency will be increased by 11% and 33% depending on the test scheme; and (3) if the parameter uncertainties are considered, the frequency is estimated to be in the range of 9.35E-7 to 1.13E 6, with 90% confidence.

Design of Nonlinear Model Using Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System by Means of C-Means Clustering (C-Means 클러스터링 기반의 Type-2 퍼지 논리 시스템을 이용한 비선형 모델 설계)

  • Baek, Jin-Yeol;Lee, Young-Il;Oh, Sung-Kwun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.842-848
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    • 2008
  • This paper deal with uncertainty problem by using Type-2 fuzzy logic set for nonlinear system modeling. We design Type-2 fuzzy logic system in which the antecedent and the consequent part of rules are given as Type-2 fuzzy set and also analyze the performance of the ensuing nonlinear model with uncertainty. Here, the apexes of the antecedent membership functions of rules are decided by C-means clustering algorithm and the apexes of the consequent membership functions of rules are learned by using back-propagation based on gradient decent method. Also, the parameters related to the fuzzy model are optimized by means of particle swarm optimization. The proposed model is demonstrated with the aid of two representative numerical examples, such as mathematical synthetic data set and Mackey-Glass time series data set and also we discuss the approximation as well as generalization abilities for the model.

Virtual Destination Aided GAODV Routing Protocol (가상 위치 도움 GAODV 라우팅 프로토콜)

  • Choi, Youngchol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.1649-1654
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    • 2017
  • The route request (RREQ) packet of the GAODV is propagated in a unicast-manner using the location of the destination, but the application of the GAODV is restricted by the assumption for the known destination's location. In this paper, we propose a virtual destination aided GAODV (VDA-GAODV) that alleviates the uncertainty of the destination's location due to the mobility. Instead of the known location of the destination, the VDA-GAODV disseminates a RREQ packet to an imaginary location on the line connecting the source and the destination. We derive an optimal imaginary destination that makes RREQ rebroadcasts cover the possible locations of the destination as much as possible. The VDA-GAODV enables the RREQ propagation to cover 95 % of the one-hop communication area centered at the originally known location of the destination, which is larger than that of the original GAODV by 23 %.