• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty measurement

검색결과 931건 처리시간 0.026초

산지 토양수분량의 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of various soil moisture measurement in mountains.)

  • 김기영;이연길;정성원
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.316-316
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    • 2019
  • 최근 빈번한 자연재해로 인해 기상 및 지구물리학적 요소들을 관측하는 연구들이 활발히 진행되고 있으며, 그중 지표와 기상을 연결해주는 토양수분 관측은 지구에서 일어나는 현상에 대한 이해도를 높이기 위한 중요한 요소로써 인식되고 있다. 이러한 토양수분 자료는 지난 몇 년 동안 다양한 측정 방법과 알고리즘 개발이 이루어져왔으나 이러한 방식으로 산출된 데이터를 무분별하게 이용하기에 앞서 최적의 사용을 위해 오류 구조를 파악하고 정량적으로 측정하는 분석이 필요하다. 따라서 Triple collocation(TC) 기법을 활용하여 가상의 실제값(hypothetical truth)을 가정하고 각각의 산출데이터의 측정 불확도와 상관성을 추정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 인공위성, 모델자료와 같은 측정 방법뿐만 아니라 지점에 설치하여 물리적인 방법을 통한 토양수분 산출방식에도 관측상의 오차가 존재함을 인지하고, 이러한 오차가 존재하는 다양한 데이터들을 분석하였다. 이용된 데이터는 설마천 산지 사면에 설치된 유전율식(TDR, Time Domain Reflectometer) 측정장비, Cosmic-Ray newtron Probe, Noah 지표모델을 활용한 자료 동화 자료인 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)를 입력 자료로 하여 TC 기법에 적용하였다. 분석 결과는 유역의 토양수분 관측에 대한 다양한 방법의 불확실성을 규명하는데 가장 중요한 연구로써 활용될 것으로 기대 된다.

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부자를 이용한 유량측정법의 유속계수 표준 불확도 평가 (Evaluation of Standard Uncertainty for Velocity Coefficient in Discharge Measurement using Floats)

  • 안명희;김서준;윤병만
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.72-72
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    • 2017
  • 하천의 유량 측정 자료는 수자원 개발 및 하천 방재의 중요한 기초 자료로 이용되며 정확한 유량 측정자료를 얻기 위해 많은 수자원 전문가들이 노력하고 있다. 그 결과 국내 하천 유량측정 기술들이 선진화되고 있으며 유량 측정 성과의 양적 측면에서의 개선이 이루어졌다. 하지만 유량 측정 결과에 대한 질적 평가 즉, 측정 불확도 평가에 대한 기준이 미흡하기 때문에 유량 측정 성과의 신뢰도 개선을 위한 연구가 필요한 실정이다. 일반적인 홍수 시 하천 유량측정 방법으로 가장 많이 사용하고 있는 부자법의 경우 유량 측정 불확도 평가방법이 ISO 748:2007 지침에 제시되어 있다. 구체적으로 ISO 748:2007 지침에서는 측선 수에 대한 불확도, 하폭 측정의 불확도, 수심 측정의 불확도 그리고 부자 유속계수, 유하경로 이탈, 유하시간 측정 등으로 발생하는 평균유속 측정 불확도를 고려하여 부자를 이용한 유량 측정 불확도를 평가한다. 하지만, 부자유속계수의 불확도, 유하경로 이탈에 따른 불확도, 유하시간 측정의 불확도를 평가할 수 있는 방법이나 정량적인 불확도에 대한 기준이 포함되어 있지 않아 실무에서는 이와 같은 불확도 인자들의 표준불확도를 무시하고 유량 측정 불확도를 제시하고 있어 실제 발생할 수 있는 유량 측정 불확도 보다 작게 제시하고 있는 문제가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 부자를 이용한 유량 측정 시 평균유속 불확도에 영향을 미치는 요인들 중 기여도가 크다고 판단되는 부자 유속계수에 대한 표준불확도를 실규모 실험을 통해 산정하였으며, 이 결과는 향후 부자를 이용한 유량 측정 불확도 평가를 위한 기준 마련에 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다.

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풍동시험에서 반응면을 이용한 내부 항력 및 벽면 효과의 효율적 보정방안 연구 (A Study on Effective Correction of Internal Drag and Wall Interference Using Response Surface in Wind Tunnel Test)

  • 김준모;이영빈
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.637-643
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    • 2019
  • Wind tunnel testing for flow-through model is necessary for performance prediction of an aircraft with air-breathing jet engine. Internal drag correction and wall correction are performed to acquire preciser wind tunnel test data. Many test runs are generally required to correct internal drag and wall interference in wind tunnel test. In this study we investigated more effective correction schemes using the response surface method. Even though the number of tests required for these schemes was much smaller than that for conventional methods, the differences between corrections using these schemes and conventional methods were similar level with the uncertainty of measurement except for the data near the boundaries.

Vulnerability assessment of strategic buildings based on ambient vibrations measurements

  • Mori, Federico;Spina, Daniele
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a new method for seismic vulnerability assessment of buildings with reference to their operational limit state. The importance of this kind of evaluation arises from the civil protection necessity that some buildings, considered strategic for seismic emergency management, should retain their functionality also after a destructive earthquake. The method is based on the identification of experimental modal parameters from ambient vibrations measurements. The knowledge of the experimental modes allows to perform a linear spectral analysis computing the maximum structural drifts of the building caused by an assigned earthquake. Operational condition is then evaluated by comparing the maximum building drifts with the reference value assigned by the Italian Technical Code for the operational limit state. The uncertainty about the actual building seismic frequencies, typically significantly lower than the ambient ones, is explicitly taken into account through a probabilistic approach that allows to define for the building the Operational Index together with the Operational Probability Curve. The method is validated with experimental seismic data from a permanently monitored public building: by comparing the probabilistic prediction and the building experimental drifts, resulting from three weak earthquakes, the reliability of the method is confirmed. Finally an application of the method to a strategic building in Italy is presented: all the procedure, from ambient vibrations measurement, to seismic input definition, up to the computation of the Operational Probability Curve is illustrated.

EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR FUEL MANAGEMENT AND REACTOR OPERATIONAL AID TOOLS

  • TURINSKY PAUL J.;KELLER PAUL M.;ABDEL-KHALIK HANY S.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.79-90
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    • 2005
  • In this paper are reviewed the current status of nuclear fuel management and reactor operational aid tools. In addition, we indicate deficiencies in current capabilities and what future research is judged warranted. For the nuclear fuel management review the focus is on light water reactors and the utilization of stochastic optimization methods applied to the lattice, fuel bundle, core loading pattern, and for BWRs the control rod pattern/core flow design decision making problems. Significant progress in addressing separately each of these design problems on a single cycle basis is noted; however, the outstanding challenge of addressing the integrated design problem over multiple cycles under conditions of uncertainty remains to be addressed. For the reactor operational aid tools review the focus is on core simulators, used to both process core instrumentation signals and as an operator aid to predict future core behaviors under various operational strategies. After briefly reviewing the current status of capabilities, a more in depth review of adaptive core simulation capabilities, where core simulator input data are adjusted within their known uncertainties to improved agreement between prediction and measurement, is presented. This is done in support of the belief that further development of adaptive core simulation capabilities is required to further significantly advance the utility of core simulators in support of reactor operational aid tools.

Observational Arc-Length Effect on Orbit Determination for KPLO Using a Sequential Estimation Technique

  • Kim, Young-Rok;Song, Young-Joo;Bae, Jonghee;Choi, Seok-Weon
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.295-308
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    • 2018
  • In this study, orbit determination (OD) simulation for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) was accomplished for investigation of the observational arc-length effect using a sequential estimation algorithm. A lunar polar orbit located at 100 km altitude and $90^{\circ}$ inclination was mainly considered for the KPLO mission operation phase. For measurement simulation and OD for KPLO, the Analytical Graphics Inc. Systems Tool Kit 11 and Orbit Determination Tool Kit 6 software were utilized. Three deep-space ground stations, including two deep space network (DSN) antennas and the Korea Deep Space Antenna, were configured for the OD simulation. To investigate the arc-length effect on OD, 60-hr, 48-hr, 24-hr, and 12-hr tracking data were prepared. Position uncertainty by error covariance and orbit overlap precision were used for OD performance evaluation. Additionally, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy was also assessed by the position difference between the estimated and true orbits. Finally, we concluded that the 48-hr-based OD strategy is suitable for effective flight dynamics operation of KPLO. This work suggests a useful guideline for the OD strategy of KPLO mission planning and operation during the nominal lunar orbits phase.

유압 배관 진동 감쇠를 위한 동조질량감쇠기 최적 설계 (Design optimization of tuned mass damper for the vibration of hydraulic pipeline)

  • 김찬경;백승훈
    • 한국음향학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 2021
  • 본 논문에서는 유체의 이동에 의한 배관의 진동을 저감시키기 위해 동조질량감쇠기(Tuned Mass Damper, TMD)의 최적 설계를 수행하였다. 배관 설비의 정확한 진원과 배관의 사양을 알지 못하는 상황에서 TMD 설계를 하기 위해 MATLAB을 이용하여 배관시스템 모델을 설계하고, 이를 바탕으로 최적 설계 방법을 개발하였다. 개발된 최적화 방법은 ANSYS Workbench에서 유한요소 모델을 이용해 최적 설계 방법을 검증했다. 그리고 실제 배관 시스템의 측정값을 바탕으로 진동수를 보정할 수 있도록 TMD를 설계 및 제작하고 실제 배관 시스템에 설치해 감쇠 진폭이 95% 수준으로 줄어든 것을 확인했다.

Determination of more than 500 Pesticide Residues in Hen Eggs by Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and Gas Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS/MS)

  • Golge, Ozgur;Liman, Turan;Kabak, Bulent
    • 한국축산식품학회지
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    • 제41권5호
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    • pp.816-825
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to validate a fast method of simultaneous analysis of 365 LCamenable and 142 GC-amenable pesticides in hen eggs by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS), respectively, operating in multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) acquisition modes. The sample preparation was based on quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) extraction. Key method performance parameters investigated were specificity, linearity, limit of quantification (LOQ), accuracy, precision and measurement uncertainty. The method was validated at two spiking levels (10 and 50 ㎍/kg), and good recoveries (70%-120%) and relative standard deviations (RSDs) (≤20) were achieved for 92.9% of LC-amenable and 86.6% of GC-amenable pesticide residues. The LOQs were ≤10 ㎍/kg for 94.2% of LC-amenable and 92.3% of GC-amenable pesticides. The validated method was further applied to 100 egg samples from caged hens, and none of the pesticides was quantified.

Neutronic simulation of the CEFR experiments with the nodal diffusion code system RAST-F

  • Tran, Tuan Quoc;Lee, Deokjung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권7호
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    • pp.2635-2649
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    • 2022
  • CEFR is a small core-size sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) using high enrichment fuel with stainless-steel reflectors, which brings a significant challenge to the deterministic methodologies due to the strong spectral effect. The neutronic simulation of the start-up experiments conducted at the CEFR have been performed with a deterministic code system RAST-F, which is based on the two-step approach that couples a multi-group cross-section generation Monte-Carlo (MC) code and a multi-group nodal diffusion solver. The RAST-F results were compared against the measurement data. Moreover, the characteristic of neutron spectrum in the fuel rings, and adjacent reflectors was evaluated using different models for generation of accurate nuclear libraries. The numerical solution of RAST-F system was verified against the full core MC solution MCS at all control rods fully inserted and withdrawn states. A good agreement between RAST-F and MCS solutions was observed with less than 120 pcm discrepancies and 1.2% root-mean-square error in terms of keff and power distribution, respectively. Meanwhile, the RAST-F result agreed well with the experimental values within two-sigma of experimental uncertainty. The good agreement of these results indicating that RAST-F can be used to neutronic steady-state simulations for small core-size SFR, which was challenged to deterministic code system.

Target alignment method of inertial confinement fusion facility based on position estimation

  • Lin, Weiheng;Zhu, Jianqiang;Liu, Zhigang;Pang, Xiangyang;Zhou, Yang;Cui, Wenhui;Dong, Ziming
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권10호
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    • pp.3703-3716
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    • 2022
  • Target alignment technology is one of the most critical technologies in laser fusion experiments and is an important technology related to the success of laser fusion experiments. In this study, by combining the open-loop and closed-loop errors of the target alignment, the Kalman state observer is used to estimate the position of the target, which improves the observation precision of the target alignment. Then the optimized result is used to guide the alignment of the target. This method can greatly optimize the target alignment error and reduce uncertainty. With the improvement of the target alignment precision, it will greatly improve the reliability and repeatability of the experiments' results, thereby improving the success rate of the experiments.