• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.249-259
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• 2018

More than half of annual rainfall occurs in summer season in Korea due to its climate condition and geographical location. A frequency analysis is mostly adopted for designing hydraulic structure under the such concentrated rainfall condition. Among the various distributions, univariate Gumbel distribution has been routinely used for rainfall frequency analysis in Korea. However, the distributional changes in extreme rainfall have been globally observed including Korea. More specifically, the univariate Gumbel distribution based rainfall frequency analysis is often fail to describe multimodal behaviors which are mainly influenced by distinct climate conditions during the wet season. In this context, we purposed a Gumbel mixture distribution based rainfall frequency analysis with a Bayesian framework, and further the results were compared to that of the univariate. It was found that the proposed model showed better performance in describing underlying distributions, leading to the lower Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. The mixed Gumbel distribution was more robust for describing the upper tail of the distribution which playes a crucial role in estimating more reliable estimates of design rainfall uncertainty occurred by peak of upper tail than single Gumbel distribution. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mixed Gumbel distribution is more compatible for extreme frequency analysis rainfall data with two or more peaks on its distribution.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.79-87
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• 2010

This is the first of the two papers dealing with reliability analyses for external and internal stability of a quay wall constructed on a special foundation. A new practical reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to evaluate the quantitative risk associated with external stability of a quay wall constructed on the deep cement mixed ground. The method can consider uncertainties in various design variables. For the risk estimation to external stability of the improved soil-quay wall, three corresponding limit state functions of sliding, overturning and bearing capacity are fully defined by introducing concept of the secondary random variable. Three representative reliability methods, MVFOSM, FORM and MCS are then applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of the three limit state functions explicitly expressed in terms of the basic and secondary random variables. From the reliability analysis results, the failure probabilities obtained from the three approaches are very close to each other, and the sliding failure mode appears to be the most critical when the earthquake loading is under consideration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.195-206
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• 2004

One of the main factors which reduces the efficiency of a sewage treatment plant is the Inflow/Infiltration(Ⅰ/Ⅰ) in the sewer First we must calculate the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ via the investigation of each sewer to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. However, in Korea, we apply the results of a surveyed sample to the entire study area to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. This methodology just considers the total Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area but it does not consider the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the individual sewer systems. Therefore, we may need the model to consider the Ⅰ/Ⅰ in the individual sewer systems and we develop the model to calculate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ that happen in urban sewer systems. We estimate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ of individual systems by the developed model and the estimated Ⅰ/Ⅰ are utilized as the basic data for the establishment of Ⅰ/Ⅰ reduction plan. The observed Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area is distributed into the individual sewer systems according to their defect states. Here, the weights of defect elements are calculated using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and we perform the uncertainty analysis for considering the errors using MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.107-119
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• 2016

Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.291-306
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• 2018

This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.131-141
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• 2004

For geotechnical applications, engineers use data obtained from a site investigation to interpret the structure and potential behavior of the subsurface. In most cases, these data consist of samples that represent 1/100,000 or less of the total volume of soil. These samples and associated field and lab testing provide the information used to estimate soil parameter values. The resulting values are estimated ones and there exists some likelihood that actual soil conditions are significantly different from the estimates. This may be the case even if the sampling and interpretation procedures are performed in accordance with standard practice. Although these efforts have been made to characterize the uncertainty associated with geotechnical parameters, there is no commonly accepted method to evaluate quantitatively the quality of an investigation plan as a whole or the relative significance of individual sampling points or potential sampling points.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.12 no.3_4
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• pp.31-41
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• 1997

Public concerns about hazardous health effect from the exposure to organic by-products of the chlorination have been increased. There are numerous studies reporting that chlorination of drinking water produces numerous chlorinated organic by-products including THMs, HAAs, HANs. Some of these products are known to be animal carcinogens. The purpose of this study was to estimate health risk of DBPs by chlorinated drinking water ingestion in Seoul based on methodologies that have been developed for conducting risk assessment of complex-chemical-mixture. The drinking water sample was collected seperately at six water treatment plant in Seoul at March, April, 1996. In tap water of households in Seoul, DBPs were measured wilfh the mean value of 36.6 $\mu$g/L. Risk assessment processes,. which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. The reference dose of haloacetonitriles was estimated to be 0.0023 mg/kg/day by applying dibromoacetonitrile NOAEL and uncertainty factor to the mean concentration. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL (maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates (mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for Trihalomethanes, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.425-437
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• 2013

This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2002.03a
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• pp.197-203
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• 2002

The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.529-536
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• 2013

The semi-distributed rainfall runoff model of SWAT is applied to the Seom-river experimental watershed. The simulations of various antecedent periods before the targeted simulation periods of 2002 to 2009 are not necessary despite of the slight appearance of corresponding changes in simulated total runoff. The simulated results of total runoff by using various numbers of soil layer maps have little differentiated nevertheless the slight changes in simulated results have been appeared. The 7 parameters of CANMX, $CN_2$, ESCO, GW_REVAP, SOL_ALB, SOL_AWC, and SOL_K greatly govern the rainfall runoff are confirmed and their sensitivity analyses have been carried out. The optimal parameters used in SWAT are derived by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP. The NS and $R^2$ are 0.99 and 0.98, respectively which is shown the good agreement between the observed and the simulated results. The uncertainty factors of P-factor and R-factor are 0.85 and 0.06, respectively which is also shown the high efficiency of the model. The high applicability is also shown with improving the RMSE in SWAT model simulation using the parameters estimated by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP.