• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.119-126
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• 2002

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.239-247
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• 2011

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the corresponding national low-carbon policy should be grounded on the scientific understanding of climate sensitivity to the increase in CO2 concentration. This is, however, precluded by the fact that current estimates of the climate sensitivity highly vary. To understand the scientific background, limitations, and prospects of the climate sensitivity study, this paper reviews, as objectively as possible, the most recent results on the sensitivity issue. Theoretically, the climate sensitivity hinges on climate feedbacks from various atmospheric and surface physical processes. Especially cloud and sea-ice processes associated with shortwave radiation are known to have largest uncertainty, resulting in an inaccurate estimation of climate sensitivity. For this reason, recent observational studies using satellite data suggest sensitivity lower than or similar to those estimated by climate models (2-5 K per doubled CO2).

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.17-26
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• 2014

Background: Despite children's unique characteristics that distinguish them from adults, relatively few attempts have been made to measure exposure factors for characterization of children's exposure to hazardous chemicals in child-specific products (CSP). This study was conducted to establish the child-specific exposure factors for exposure and risk assessment of hazardous substances in CSP. Methods: We investigated the exposure factors (e.g., time use of child-products, time and frequency of object-to-body contact, time and frequency of object-to-mouth contact) influencing children's exposure to CSP (e.g., toys, playmats, oil pastels, etc.) in 650 children through a parent-completed questionnaire using a web-based survey. Participants were recruited in five age groups, <1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-6, and 6-12 years of age. Results: The child-specific exposure factors were presented as the mean, median, $95^{th}$ percentile, minimum, and maximum values. Time activity for play mats was the longest among CSP and infants spent more time on them than did elder age groups (189.3-224.7 min/day for <1-2 years vs. 91.2 min/day for 6-12 years). It is apparent that time and frequency of toy block- and plastic toy-to-mouth contact significantly decreased as a function of age. When the variation of CSP use patterns was compared by gender, the only variable that was statistically different between genders was time activity in child-products exposure space. Conclusion: We believe the five child-specific exposure factors suggested in the present study will be valuable for reducing uncertainty in the estimation of chemical exposure during risk assessment of CSP and furthermore, in the appropriate regulations to protect children's health.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.1029-1042
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• 2016

The initial and boundary conditions are important factors in regional chemical transport modeling systems. The method of generating the chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality models tends to be different from the dynamically varying boundary conditions in global chemical transport models. In this study, the impact of real time Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service (CAMS) re-analysis data from the modeling atmospheric composition and climate project interim implementation (MACC) on the regional air quality in the Korean Peninsula was carried out using the community multi-scale air quality modeling system (CMAQ). A comparison between conventional global data and CAMS for numerical assessments was also conducted. Although the horizontal resolution of the CAMS re-analysis data is not higher than the conventionally provided data, the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations with boundary conditions for CAMS re-analysis is more reasonable than any other data, and the estimation accuracy over the entire Korean peninsula, including the Seoul and Daegu metropolitan areas, was improved. Although an inland area such as the Daegu metropolitan area often has large uncertainty in PM prediction, the level of improvement in the prediction for the Daegu metropolitan area is higher than in the coastal area of the western part of the Korean peninsula.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.403-417
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• 2014

Future changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over East Asia under anthropogenic global warming are investigated by comparing the historical run for 1979~2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006~2100 with 20 coupled models which participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Although an increase in future temperature over the East Asian monsoon region has been commonly accepted, the prediction of future precipitation under global warming still has considerable uncertainties with a large inter-model spread. Thus, we select best five models, based on the evaluation of models' performance in present climate for boreal summer and winter seasons, to reduce uncertainties in future projection. Overall, the CMIP5 models better simulate climatological temperature and precipitation over East Asia than the phase 3 of CMIP and the five best models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) has better performance than all 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME). Under anthropogenic global warming, significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrast over the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future. The contrast of future precipitation in winter between land and ocean will decrease over East Asia whereas that in summer particularly over the Korean Peninsula, associated with the Changma, will increase. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study has made an effort on providing a more reliable range of future change for temperature and precipitation particularly over the Korean Peninsula than previous studies.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.6
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• pp.55-69
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• 2016

RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the empirical formular widely used to estimate rates of soil erosion caused by rainfall and associated overland flow. Among the factors considered in RUSLE, rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) is the major one derived by rainfall intensity and characteristics of rainfall event. There has been developed various methods to estimate R factor, such as energy based methods considering physical schemes of soil erosion and simple methods using the empirical relationship between soil erosion and annual total rainfall. This study is aimed to quantitatively evaluate the variation among the R factors estimated using different methods for South Korea. Station based observation (minutely rainfall data) were collected for 72 stations to investigate the characteristics of rainfall events over the country and similarity and differentness of R factors calculated by each method were compared in various ways. As results use of simple methods generally provided greater R factors comparing to those for energy based methods by 76 % on average and also overestimated the range of factors using different equations. The variation coefficient of annual R factors was calculated as 0.27 on average and the results significantly varied by the stations. Additionally the study demonstrated the rank of methods that would provide exclusive results comparing to others for each station. As it is difficult to find universal way to estimate R factors for specific regions, the efforts to validate and integrate various methods are required to improve the applicability and accuracy of soil erosion estimation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.157-164
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• 2009

Due to change of various marine environments according to seawater temperature rising, Japanese common squid(Todarodes pacificus), which was distributed in East Sea, was recently caught in Yellow Sea during a summer season from 2006. The fishery resources density research was carried out in Korea-China Provisional Water Zone using trawl fishing gear and acoustics in National Fisheries Research & Development Institute in Korea. This paper showed the analysis on the acoustical backscattering strength by two frequencies(38kHz, 120kHz) for Japanese common squid by acoustical scattering theoretical model based on size distribution for survey period, and estimate the density distribution for squid s integrated layer which was extracted from any scatterers distributed in water column using two frequency difference method which has been used to distinguish fish shoals or specific target scatterers from sound scattering layer which is composed of various zooplankton. Furthermore, the entire range of their density estimation was suggested using by Monte Carlo simulation under considering each uncertainty such as size distributions or swimming angle and so on in survey area.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2803-2809
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• 2009

For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.539-553
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• 2004

Up to the present time, many methods to estimate emissions from a particular diesel engines have wholly depended on the quantity of diesel fuel consumed. Then, the recommended emission factors were normalized by fuel consumption, and further total activity was estimated by the total fuel consumed. One of main purposes in the study is newly to develop emission factors for the railroad diesel rolling stock (RDRS) and to estimate a total amount of major gaseous pollutants from the RDRS in Korea. Prior to develop a Korean mode emission factor. the emission factor from the USEPA was simply applied for comparative studies. When applying the USEPA emission factors, total exhaust emissions from the RDRS in Korea were estimated by 28,117tons of NOx, 2,832.3tons of CO, and 1,237.5tons of HC, etc in 2001. In this study, a emission factor for the RDRS, so called the KoRail mode (the Korean Railroad mode) has been developed on the basis of analyzing the driving pattern of the Gyeongbu-Line especially for the line-haul mode. Explicitly to make the site specific emission factors, many uncertainty problems concerning weighting factors for each power mode, limited emission test, incomplete data for RDRS, and other important input parameters were extensively examined. Total exhaust emissions by KoRail mode in Korea were estimated by 10,960tons of NOx, and 4,622tons of CO, and so on in the year of 2001. The emissions estimated by the USEPA mode were 2.6 times higher for NOx, and 1.6 times lower for CO than those by the KoRail mode. As a conclusion, based on the emission calculated from both the USEPA mode and the KoRail mode, the RDRS is considered as one of the significant mobile sources for major gaseous pollutants and thus management plans an(1 control strategies for the RDRS must be established to improve air quality near future in Korea.