• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Factor

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Stochastic design charts for bearing capacity of strip footings

  • Shahin, Mohamed A.;Cheung, Eric M.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.153-167
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    • 2011
  • Traditional design methods of bearing capacity of shallow foundations are deterministic in the sense that they do not explicitly consider the inherent uncertainty associated with the factors affecting bearing capacity. To account for such uncertainty, available deterministic methods rather employ a fixed global factor of safety that may lead to inappropriate bearing capacity predictions. An alternative stochastic approach is essential to provide a more rational estimation of bearing capacity. In this paper, the likely distribution of predicted bearing capacity of strip footings subjected to vertical loads is obtained using a stochastic approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach accounts for the uncertainty associated with the soil shear strength parameters: cohesion, c, and friction angle, ${\phi}$, and the cross correlation between c and ${\phi}$. A set of stochastic design charts that assure target reliability levels of 90% and 95%, are developed for routine use by practitioners. The charts negate the need for a factor of safety and provide a more reliable indication of what the actual bearing capacity might be.

Measurement uncertainty Improvement of ERA PD measuring system in teat laboratory (ERA 부분방전 측정시스템의 측정불확도개선)

  • Heo, Jong-Cheol;Kim, We-Young;Kim, Seok-Sou;Oh, Chang-Soo;Park, Chung-Hoo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07c
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    • pp.1509-1510
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    • 2006
  • ERA PD measuring system has been using for partial discharge evaluation of power appratus in test laboratories. So, the measurement uncertainty of PD measuring system (ERA), such as PD pulse calibrator rise and fall time, sacle factor(k) and linearity, transfer impedance etc, is very important factor of test result in test laboratory. In this paper, we describe tracebility and uncertainty improvement of PD measuring system in test laboratory based on IEC 60270.

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Resistance Factor Calculation of Driven Piles of Long Span Bridges (장대교량 타입말뚝에 대한 저항계수 산정)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Park, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Joon-Yong;Kwak, Ki-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2013
  • Assessment of uncertainties of loads and resistances is prerequisite for the development of load and resistance factor design (LRFD). Many previous studies related to resistance factor calculations of piles were conducted for short or medium span bridges (span lengths less than 200m) reflecting the live load uncertainty for ordinary span bridges. In this study, by using a revised live load model and its uncertainty for long span bridges (span lengths longer than 200m and shorter than 1500m), resistance factors are recalibrated. For the estimation of nominal pile capacity (both base and shaft capacities), the Imperial College Pile (ICP) design method is used. For clayey and sandy foundation, uncertainty of resistance is assessed based on the ICP database. As long span bridges are typically considered as more important structures than short or medium span bridges, higher target reliability indices are assigned in the reliability analysis. Finally, resistance factors are calculated and proposed for the use of LRFD of driven piles for ordinary span and long span bridges.

Quantifying Uncertainty of Calcium Determination in Infant Formula by AAS and ICP-AES (AAS 및 ICP-AES에 의한 조제분유 중 칼슘 함량 분석의 측정불확도 산정)

  • Jun, Jang-Young;Kwak, Byung-Man;Ahn, Jang-Hyuk;Kong, Un-Young
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.701-710
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    • 2004
  • Uncertainty was quantified to evaluate calcium determination result in infant formula with AAS (Atomic Absorption Spectrometry) and ICP-AES (Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometry). Uncertainty sources in measurand, such as sample weight, final volume of sample, sample dilution and the instrumental result were identified and used as parameters for combined standard uncertainty based on the GUM (Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement) and Draft EURACHEM/CITAC Guide. Uncertainty components of each sources in measurand were identified as resolution, reproducibility and stability of chemical balance, standard material purity, standard material molecular weight, standard solution concentration, standard solution dilution factor, sample dilution factor, calibration curve, recovery, instrumental precision, reproducibility, and stability, Each uncertainty components were evaluated by uncertainty types and included to calculate combined uncertainty. The kinds of uncertainty sources and components in the analytical method by AAS and ICP-AES were same except sample dilution factor for AAS. The analytical results and combined standard uncertainties of calcium content were estimated within the certification range $(367{\pm}20\;mg/100g)$ of CRM (Certified Reference Material) and were not significantly different between method by AAS followed by ashing and method by ICP-AES followed by acid digestion as $359.52{\pm}23.61\;mg/100g\;and\;354.75{\pm}16.16\;mg/100g$, respectively. Identifying uncertainty sources related with precision, repeatability, stability, and maintaining proper instrumental conditions as well as personal proficiency was needed to reduce analytical error.

Perceived Uncertainty and Perceived Usefulness of Intranet in the Restaurant Franchise Industry

  • Lee, Hwan-Eui;Cho, Sun-Gu;Hyun, Sung-Hyup
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2011
  • The restaurant franchise industry is one that could benefit significantly from the use of intranet technology, from its potential for improving communications between franchisors and franchisees, to providing easier inventory and ordering processes. However, there is a level of trepidation among potential users about whether the technology would improve their work performance. This study sought to examine the relationships between perceived uncertainty and perceived usefulness of intranet technology in the restaurant franchise industry. Through a review of available literature, 10 sub-dimensions of perceived uncertainty (Duncan, 1972) and six sub-dimensions of perceived usefulness (Davis, 1989) were derived. Canonical correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between these concepts using data collected from 163 franchising restaurant managers in South Korea. Findings from the data analysis demonstrates two negative factors and one positive factor in perceived uncertainty that influence perceived usefulness, thus offering some implications of what to consider when implementing an intranet system in a restaurant franchise.

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A Study on the Thermal Effects Measurement and Uncertainty Estimation for High Precision Machine Tools (고정밀 공작기계의 열적효과 측정 및 불확도 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Deok-Soo;Kim, Sang-Hwa;Park, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2013
  • When the main spindle of high precision machine tools are run many hours, heat is generated in bearing parts of the inside of the spindle. Also, headstock is appeared distortion by inside and outside temperature difference of a machine. This paper studies method to measure behavior of machine tool about these thermal effects. In addition, it estimates measurement uncertainty factors which can be appeared in thermal effects measurement. Finding the factor of thermal affect measurement is important for estimation of measurement uncertainty. This paper measures thermal effects of high precision machine tools and evaluates the important factors of uncertainty.

Uncertainty Analysis for Speed and Power Performance in Sea Trial using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 시운전 선속-동력 성능에 대한 불확실성 해석)

  • Seo, Dae-Won;Kim, Min-Su;Kim, Sang-Yeob
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.242-250
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    • 2019
  • The speed and power performance of a ship is not only a guarantee issue between the ship owner and the ship-yard, but also is related with the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) regulation. Recently, International Organization for Standardization (ISO) published the procedure of the measurement and assessment for ship speed and power at sea trial. The results of speed and power performance measured in actual sea condition must inevitably include various uncertainty factors. In this study, the influence for systematic error of shaft power measurement system was examined using the Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the expanded uncertainty of speed and power performance is approximately ${\pm}1.2%$ at the 95% confidence level(k=2) and most of the uncertainty factor is attributed to shaft torque measurement system.

Development of a national medium vacuum standard by static expansion method (정적법을 이용한 중진공 국가표준기 개발)

  • Hong S. S.;Lim I. T.;Shin Y. H.;Chung K. H.
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2005
  • We developed a national medium vacuum standard by static expansion method. A 133 Pa capacitance diaphragm gauge was calibrated and analysed according to the document of 'Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement' of ISO. The results showed that the expanded uncertainty of $2.628\times10^{-3}$ Pa at $95\%$ confidence level and coverage factor of k=2.

The Relationship between Risk Taking, Impulsivity and Intolerance of Uncertainty (위험감수와 충동성 및 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족의 관련성)

  • Sohn, Sung Yun;Kang, Jee In;Namkoong, Kee;Kim, Se Joo
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2014
  • Objectives Risk taking has been implicated in the development of various psychiatric disorders. Previous studies have indicated that risk taking behavior is associated with high levels of impulsiveness. Risk taking entail uncertain situation that outcome probability is unknown. This study tested impulsivity, intolerance of uncertainty and risk taking behavior. Methods A total of 73 participants completed a test battery comprised of the UPPS-P scale as a psychometric measurement of five dimensions of impulsivity, Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale, and Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) as a behavioral measure of risk taking. The Pearson correlation analysis was used. Results The sensation seeking factor was positively correlated with BART measure (r = 0.27, p = 0.02). Specifically, the relationship between sensation seeking and BART was significant in females. Conclusions Among the five factors of UPPS-P, only the sensation seeking factor predicts risk taking propensity.

A The Effect of Trust Transference on Shopping Behavior in Live Streaming Commerce (라이브 스트리밍 커머스 수용과정에서 신뢰전이가 쇼핑행동에 미치는 영향)

  • In-Won Kang;So-Jeong Yoon;Eun-Jong An;Lan Yang
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.25-42
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    • 2022
  • This study identified consumers' shopping behavior in live streaming commerce. To this end, this study put the uncertainty issue of live shopping and the transfer of trust at the center of the discussion. The verification of the research model resulted in the following conclusions. First, reduced uncertainty in live shopping was a factor in increasing the level of involvement and attachment in the service. These results showed that resolving uncertainty in newly introduced services is a key factor in determining users' positive attitudes. Second, the trust in shopping sites influenced the current live shopping attitude. This is because the transfer of trust is also valid in live shopping, which demonstrated the importance of building trust. Third, this study proposed and validated a research model that could systematically understand the consumption process of live streaming shopping. Furthermore, this study provides a beneficial implication for those who want to use live shopping in practice.