• 한국공작기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국공작기계학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.543-550
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• 2002

This work is concerned with the estimation of output derivatives and their use for the design of robust controller for linear systems with systems uncertainties due to modeling errors and disturbance. It is assumed that a nominal transfer function model and Quantitative bounds for system uncertainties are known. The developed control schemes are shown to achieve regulation of the system output and ensures boundedness of the system states without imposing any structural conditions on system uncertainties and disturbances. Output derivative estimation is first conducted trough restructuring of the plant in a specific parameterization. They are utilized for constructing robust nonlinear high-gain feedback controller of a SMC(Sliding Mode Controller) Type. The performances of the developed controller are evaluated and shown to be effective and useful through simulation study.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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• pp.225-228
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• 2007

This paper presents a geostatistical methodology to model local uncertainty in spatial estimation of sediment grain size with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Within a multi-Gaussian framework, the IKONOS imagery is used as local means both to estimate the grain size values and to model local uncertainty at unsample locations. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) at any locations is defined by mean and variance values which can be estimated by multi-Gaussian kriging with local means. Two ccdf statistics including condition variance and interquartile range are used here as measures of local uncertainty and are compared through a cross validation analysis. In addition to local uncertainty measures, the probabilities of not exceeding or exceeding any grain size value at any locations are retrieved and mapped from the local ccdf models. A case study of Baramarae beach, Korea is carried out to illustrate the potential of geostatistical uncertainty modeling.

• 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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• 제52권8호
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• pp.462-470
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• 2003

This paper presents an algorithm of identifying parametric uncertainty by way of an interval model. For a given set of frequency response data from an uncertain linear SISO system of which the upper and the lower bounds of both magnitude and phase responses are represented, the proposed algorithm consists of two main parts: first, the nominal model is identified by using Least Square Estimation (LSE), and then an interval model is constructed by expanding the extremal properties of interval systems, so that tightly enclose the given envelopes within those of interval model. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate and verify the developed algorithm. The identified interval model can be used for evaluating the worst case performance and stability margins against parametric uncertainty by using some extremal properties on interval systems.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.311-330
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• 2007

Model-based predictions of structural behavior are negatively affected by uncertainties of various type and in various stages of the structural analysis. The present paper focusses on dynamic analysis and addresses the effects of uncertainties concerning material and geometric parameters, mainly in the context of modal analysis of large-scale structures. Given the large number of uncertain parameters arising in this case, highly scalable simulation-based methods are adopted, which can deal with possibly thousands of uncertain parameters. In order to solve the reliability problem, i.e., the estimation of very small exceedance probabilities, an advanced simulation method called Line Sampling is used. In combination with an efficient algorithm for the estimation of the most important uncertain parameters, the method provides good estimates of the failure probability and enables one to quantify the error in the estimate. Another aspect here considered is the uncertainty quantification for closely-spaced eigenfrequencies. The solution here adopted represents each eigenfrequency as a weighted superposition of the full set of eigenfrequencies. In a case study performed with the FE model of a satellite it is shown that the effects of uncertain parameters can be very different in magnitude, depending on the considered response quantity. In particular, the uncertainty in the quantities of interest (eigenfrequencies) turns out to be mainly caused by very few of the uncertain parameters, which results in sharp estimates of the failure probabilities at low computational cost.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.415-422
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• 2015

Ballscrews are important motion transfer and positioning units of industrial machinery and precision machines. Positioning accuracy of the feed drive system depends upon axial stiffness of ballscrew systems. As the nut stiffness depends upon preload and operating conditions, analytical modeling of the stiffness is performed through the contact and body deformation analysis. For accurate contact analysis, the contact angle variation between balls and grooves is incorporated in the developed model. To verify the developed mathematical stiffness model, experiments are conducted on the test-rig. Through the uncertainty analysis according to GUM (Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement), it is confirmed that the formulated stiffness model has over 85% estimation accuracy. After constructing the ballscrew DB, a quick turnaround system for the nut stiffness estimation has been developed in this research.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2005년도 창립60주년 기념 추계 학술대회
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• pp.108.1-108.1
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• 2005

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.155-155
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• 2018

Uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled meteorological and hydrological model is arisen from various sources, especially the uncertainty comes from the inaccuracy of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). In order to improve the capability of flood forecast, the uncertainty estimation and mitigation are required to perform. This study is conducted to investigate and reduce such uncertainty. First, ensemble QPFs are generated by using Monte - Carlo simulation, then each ensemble member is forced as input for a hydrological model to obtain ensemble streamflow prediction. Likelihood measures are evaluated to identify feasible member. These members are retained to define upper and lower limits of the uncertainty interval and assess the uncertainty. To mitigate the uncertainty for very short lead time, a blending method, which merges the ensemble QPFs with radar-based rainfall prediction considering both qualitative and quantitative skills, is proposed. Finally, blending bias ratios, which are estimated from previous time step, are used to update the members over total lead time. The proposed method is verified for the two flood events in 2013 and 2016 in the Yeonguol and Soyang watersheds that are located in the Han River basin, South Korea. The uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) and Sejong University Rainfall - Runoff (SURR) model is investigated and then mitigated by blending the generated ensemble LDAPS members with radar-based rainfall prediction that uses McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE). The results show that the uncertainty of flood forecasting using the coupled model increases when the lead time is longer. The mitigation method indicates its effectiveness for mitigating the uncertainty with the increases of the percentage of feasible member (POFM) and the ratio of the number of observations that fall into the uncertainty interval (p-factor).

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.641-649
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• 2010

Estimation of uncertain parameters is required in many engineering problems which involve probabilistic structural analysis as well as prognosis of existing structures. In this case, Bayesian framework is often employed, which is to represent the uncertainty of parameters in terms of probability distributions conditional on the provided data. The resulting form of distribution, however, is not amenable to the practical application due to its complex nature making the standard probability functions useless. In this study, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed to overcome this difficulty, which is a modern computational technique for the efficient and straightforward estimation of parameters. Three case studies that implement the estimation are presented to illustrate the concept. The first one is an inverse estimation, in which the unknown input parameters are inversely estimated based on a finite number of measured response data. The next one is a metamodel uncertainty problem that arises when the original response function is approximated by a metamodel using a finite set of response values. The last one is a prognostics problem, in which the unknown parameters of the degradation model are estimated based on the monitored data.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1997년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집; 한국전력공사 서울연수원; 17-18 Oct. 1997
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• pp.1589-1592
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• 1997

Among the prerequisite abilities (perception of environment, path planning and position estimation) of an autonomous mobile robot, position estimation has been seldom studied by mobile robot researchers. In most cases, conventional positioin estimation has been performed by placing landmarks or giving the entrire environmental information in advance. Unlikely to the conventional ones, the study addresses a new method that the robot itself can select distinctive features in the environment and save them as landmarks without any a priori knowledge, which can maximize the autonomous behavior of the robot. First, an orjentaion probaility model is applied to construct a lcoal map of robot's surrounding. The feature of the object in the map is then extracted and the map is saved as landmark. Also, presented is the position estimation method that utilizes the correspondence between landmarks and current local map. In dong this, the uncertainty of the robot's current positioin is estimated in order to select the corresponding landmark stored in the previous steps. The usefulness of all these approaches are illustrated with the results porduced by a real robot equipped with ultrasonic sensors.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권6호
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• pp.523-533
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 충주댐 유역에 대해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 강우-유출 모델 매개변수, 입력자료에 따른 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 앙상블 유량예측기법으로는 ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) 기법과 BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) 기법을 활용하였으며, 강우-유출 모델로는 ABCD를 활용하였다. 모델 매개변수에 따른 불확실성 분석은 GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) 기법을 적용하였으며, 입력자료에 따른 불확실성 분석은 유량예측 앙상블에 활용되는 기상시나리오의 기간에 따라 수행하였다. 연구결과 앙상블 유량예측 기법은 입력자료 보다 모델 매개변수의 영향을 크게 받았으며, 20년 이상의 관측 기상자료가 확보되었을 때 활용하는 것이 적절하였다. 또한 BAYES-ESP는 ESP에 비해 불확실성을 감소시킬 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 불확실성 분석을 통해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 특징을 규명하고 오차의 원인을 분석하였다는 점에서 가치가 있다고 판단된다.