• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.511-520
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• 2015

Existing studies on radar rainfall uncertainties were performed to reduce the uncertainty for each stage by using bias correction during the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. However, the studies do not provide quantitative comparison with the uncertainties for all stages. Consequently, this study proposes a suitable approach that can quantify the uncertainties at each stage of the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. First, the new approach can present initial and final uncertainties, increasing or decreasing the uncertainty, and the uncertainty percentage at each stage. Furthermore, Maximum Entropy (ME) was applied to quantify the uncertainty in the entire process. Second, for the uncertainty quantification of radar rainfall estimation at each stage, this study used two quality control algorithms, two rainfall estimation relations, and two bias correction techniques as post-processing and progressed through all stages of the radar rainfall estimation. For the proposed approach, the final uncertainty (ME = 3.81) from the ME of the bias correction stage was the smallest while the uncertainty of the rainfall estimation stage was higher because of the use of an unsuitable relation. Additionally, the ME of the quality control was at 4.28 (112.34%), while that of the rainfall estimation was at 4.53 (118.90%), and that of the bias correction at 3.81 (100%). However, this study also determined that selecting the appropriate method for each stage would gradually reduce the uncertainty at each stage. Finally, the uncertainty due to natural variability was 93.70% of the final uncertainty. Thus, the results indicate that this new approach can contribute significantly to the field of uncertainty estimation and help with estimating more accurate radar rainfall.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.36 no.7
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• pp.919-926
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• 2012

In order to control a LTI(Linear Time Invariant) system subjected to system noise and measurement noise, first of all, it is necessary to estimate the state of system with reliability. Kalman filtering technique has been widely used to estimate the state of the stochastic LTI system with stationary noise characteristics because of its estimation ability versus algorithm simplicity. However, it often fails to estimate the state of the LTI system of which system parameter uncertainty exists partly and/or input uncertainty exists. In this paper, a new estimation technique based on Kalman filter is suggested for stochastic LTI system under parameter uncertainty and/or input uncertainty. A fuzzy estimation algorithm against uncertainties is introduced so as to compensate the state estimate filtered by Kalman filter. In order to verify the state estimation performance of the suggested technique, several simulations are accomplished.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.1721-1726
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• 2004

Heat rate is a representative index to estimate the performance of turbine cycle in nuclear power plant. Accuracy of heat rate calculation is dependent on the accuracy of measurement for plant status variables. Uncertainty of heat rate can be modeled using uncertainty propagation model. We developed practical estimation model of heat rate uncertainty using the propagation and regression model. The uncertainty model is used in the performance analysis system developed for the operating nuclear power plant.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.18-30
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• 2020

This study deals an estimation method of thrust measurement uncertainty in solid rocket motors. Guidelines of the force measurement uncertainty estimation have been provided by ISO, domestic and international organizations. However, all of them are described by focusing on the force calibration machines and force transducers with a conceptually-driven way. Thus the guidelines cannot be directly applicable to uncertainty estimation of calibration equation and its linear approximation, which are critical error sources in the thrust measurement. In this paper, the equations taking into account effects of both error sources are derived based on fundamental concepts of measurement uncertainty. These are applied to the real thrust measurement system where a relatively simple estimation method for the thrust measurement uncertainty is proposed.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.64-69
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• 1993

In this paper we present the performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter in continuous time systems with modeling uncertainty. The performance measure bounds are calculated from the estimation error covariance bounds of the optimal FIR filter and the suboptimal FIR filter. Performance error bounds range are expressed by the upper bounds on the estimation error covariance difference between the real and nominal values in case of the systems with noise uncertainty or model uncertainty. The performance bounds of the systems are derived on the assumption that the system uncertainty and the estimation error covariance are imperfectly known a priori. The estimation error bounds of the optimal FIR filter is compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the estimation of the motion of an aircraft carrier at sea, which shows the former has better performances than the latter.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.509-516
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• 2014

This paper proposes estimation model of uncertainty in vibration measurement of shipboard equipment and analyzes the result of uncertainty estimation. Vibration of shipboard equipments affects underwater radiated noise that is important performance related to stealth of the naval vessel. Acceptance testing for shipboard equipment is required to guarantee the stealth performance of naval vessel. In measuring, detailed uncertainty estimation is essential to improve measuring reliability. Acceptance testing result of structure-borne noise and vibration is used to analyze uncertainty in vibration measurement of shipboard equipment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.860-865
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• 2021

A data-based model, such as an AAKR model is widely used for monitoring the drifts of sensors in nuclear power plants. However, since a training dataset and a test dataset for a data-based model cannot be constructed with the data from all the possible states, the model uncertainty cannot be good enough to represent the uncertainty of estimations. In fact, the errors of estimation grow much bigger if the incoming data come from inexperienced states. To overcome this limitation of the model uncertainty, a new measure of uncertainty for a data-based model is developed and the predicted uncertainty is introduced. The predicted uncertainty is defined in every estimation according to the incoming data. In this paper, the AAKR model is used as a data-based model. The predicted uncertainty is similar in magnitude to the model uncertainty when the estimation is made for the incoming data from the experienced states but it goes bigger otherwise. The characteristics of the predicted model uncertainty are studied and the usefulness is demonstrated with the pressure signals measured in the flow-loop system. It is expected that the predicted uncertainty can quite reduce the false alarm by using the variable threshold instead of the fixed threshold.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.321-327
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• 2011

Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.5
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• pp.439-449
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• 2018

Many potential sources of bias are used in several steps of the radar-rainfall estimation process because the hydrological and meteorological radars measure the rainfall amount indirectly. Previous studies on radar-rainfall uncertainties were performed to reduce the uncertainty of each step by using bias correction methods in the quantitative radar-rainfall estimation process. However, these studies do not provide comprehensive uncertainty for the entire process and the relative ratios of uncertainty between each step. Consequently, in this study, a suitable approach is proposed that can quantify the uncertainties at each step of the quantitative radar-rainfall estimation process and show the uncertainty propagation through the entire process. First, it is proposed that, in the suitable approach, the new concept can present the initial and final uncertainties, variation of the uncertainty as well as the relative ratio of uncertainty at each step. Second, the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM) were applied to quantify the uncertainty and analyze the uncertainty propagation for the entire process. Third, for the uncertainty quantification of radar-rainfall estimation at each step, two quality control algorithms, two radar-rainfall estimation relations, and two bias correction methods as post-processing through the radar-rainfall estimation process in 18 rainfall cases in 2012. For the proposed approach, in the MEM results, the final uncertainty (from post-processing bias correction method step: ME = 3.81) was smaller than the initial uncertainty (from quality control step: ME = 4.28) and, in the UDM results, the initial uncertainty (UDM = 5.33) was greater than the final uncertainty (UDM = 4.75). However uncertainty of the radar-rainfall estimation step was greater because of the use of an unsuitable relation. Furthermore, it was also determined in this study that selecting the appropriate method for each stage would gradually reduce the uncertainty at each step. Therefore, the results indicate that this new approach can significantly quantify uncertainty in the radar-rainfall estimation process and contribute to more accurate estimates of radar rainfall.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.781-786
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• 2016

All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measurement result is complete only when it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty. By international agreement, this uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects incomplete knowledge of the quantity value. The "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement", commonly known as the GUM, is the definitive document on this subject. The requirements for estimation of measurement uncertainty apply to all results provided by calibration laboratories and results produced by testing laboratories under the optional circumstances. In this paper, a procedure for estimation of measurement uncertainty from vibration testing is proposed on KS F 2868:2003 as an example. Both Type A and Type B evaluation of uncertainty are considered to calculate the combined standard uncertainty and expanded uncertainty.