• 대기
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.207-223
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• 2014

The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetric component into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Vortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associated with the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location of the tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction was evaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetric components. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized with the asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 were selected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. The results suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the track forecast of tropical cyclones.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.382-391
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• 2019

The impact of vertical grid-nesting on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecast was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) version 3.8 and the initialization method of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Bogus Vortex (SABV). For a better resolution in the central part of the numerical domain, where the tropical cyclone of interest is located, a horizontal and vertical nesting technique was employed. Simulations of the tropical cyclone Sanba (16th in 2012) indicated that the vertical nesting had a weak impact on the cyclone intensity and little impact on the track forecast. Further experiments revealed that the performance of forecast was quite sensitive to the horizontal resolution, which is in agreement with previous studies. The improvement is due to the fact that horizontal resolution can improve forecasts not only on the tropical cyclone-scale but also for large-scale disturbances.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

A new consensus algorithm for the prediction of tropical cyclone track has been developed. Conventional consensus is a simple average of a few fixed models that showed the good performance in track prediction for the past few years. Meanwhile, the consensus in this study is a weighted average of a few models that may change for every individual forecast time. The models are selected as follows. The first step is to find the analogous past tropical cyclone tracks to the current track. The next step is to evaluate the model performances for those past tracks. Finally, we take the weighted average of the selected models. More weight is given to the higher performance model. This new algorithm has been named as DYTRAP (DYnamic data-base Typhoon tRAck Prediction) in the sense that the data base is used to find the analogous past tracks and the effective models for every individual track prediction case. DYTRAP has been applied to all 2009 tropical cyclone track prediction. The results outperforms those of all models as well as all the official forecasts of the typhoon centers. In order to prove the real usefulness of DYTRAP, it is necessary to apply the DYTRAP system to the real time prediction because the forecast in typhoon centers usually uses 6-hour or 12-hour-old model guidances.

• 대기
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.503-514
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• 2014

Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.

• 대기
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.451-466
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• 2010

This edition has continued since 2006 tropical cyclone season our effort to provide standard tropical cyclone summaries by the western North Pacific basin and detailed reviews of operationally or meteorologically significant tropical cyclones to document significant challenges and shortfalls in the tropical cyclone warning system to serve as a focal point for research and development efforts. The tropical cyclone season of 2009 in the western North Pacific basin is summarized and the main characteristics of general atmospheric circulation are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified. The total number is less than 59-year (1951~2009) average frequency of 26.4. The 2009 western North Pacific season was an inactive one, in which 22 tropical storms generated. Of these, 13 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 9 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and six TS storms. On average of 22 TCs in 2009, the Korea Meteorological Administration official track forecast error for 48 hours was 219 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0902 CHAN-HOM, 0909 ETAU, and 0920 LUPIT resulting in significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. There was no tropical cyclone causing significant direct impact to the country. The tropical cyclone season in 2009 began in May with the formation of KUJIRA (0901). In September and October, ten TSs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to July. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2009 summertime. Year 2009 has continued the below normal condition since mid 1990s which is apparent in the decadal variability in TC activity.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.375-387
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• 2015

A Selected Multi-model CONsensus (SMCON) technique was developed and verified for the tropical cyclone track forecast in the western North Pacific. The SMCON forecasts were produced by averaging numerical model forecasts showing low 70% latest 6 h prediction errors among 21 models. In the homogeneous comparison for 54 tropical cyclones in 2013 and 2014, the SMCON improvement rate was higher than the other forecasts such as the Non-Selected Multi-model CONsensus (NSMCON) and other numerical models (i.e., GDAPS, GEPS, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, ECMWF_H, ECMWF_EPS, JGSM, TEPS). However, the SMCON showed lower or similar improvement rate than a few forecasts including ECMWF_EPS forecasts at 96 h in 2013 and at 72 h in 2014 and the TEPS forecast at 120 h in 2013. Mean track errors of the SMCON for two year were smaller than the NSMCON and these differences were 0.4, 1.2, 5.9, 12.9, 8.2 km at 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-h respectively. The SMCON error distributions showed smaller central tendency than the NSMCON's except 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Similarly, the density for smaller track errors of the SMCON was higher than the NSMCON's except at 72-, 96-h forecast in 2013 in the kernel density estimation analysis. In addition, the NSMCON has lager range of errors above the third quantile and larger standard deviation than the SMCON's at 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Also, the SMCON showed smaller bias than ECMWF_H for the cross track bias. Thus, we concluded that the SMCON could provide more reliable information on the tropical cyclone track forecast by reflecting the real-time performance of the numerical models.

• 대기
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.43-53
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• 2008

A new proposition on the definition of the tropical cyclone (TC) which influences the Korean Peninsula (KP) is presented. The definition is based upon the TC track and intensity, 34 wind swath considering the TC size, and the line of 200 nautical mile (NM) from the KP shore which is the boundary of the official warning of Korea Meteorological Administration. Four types are proposed. First type is TC that hits the KP inland. Second is TC that falls within the 200-NM boundary. Third type is TC that passes outside the 200-NM boundary but large enough to significantly influence the KP. Last, the cases for a TC which are downgraded to the midlatitude cyclone and hit the KP are included. 30-year reanalysis reveals that 21 tropical cyclones should be included in the TC list that influenced the KP during the period from 1977 to 2006, which corresponds to 3.93 TCs per year. Among them, number of type I, II, III and IV TCs turn are to be 36, 47, 10, and 16, respectively. The net increase found in the current reanalysis is 2, 5, 7, and 7 for each type.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.152-152
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• 2022

Only employing historical data limits the estimation of the full distribution of probable Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk due to the insufficiency of samples. Addressing this limitation, this study introduces a semi-physical TC rainfall model that produces spatially and temporally resolved TC rainfall data to improve TC risk assessments. The model combines a statistical-based track model based on the Markov renewal process to produce synthetic TC tracks, with a physics-based model that considers the interaction between TC and the atmospheric environment to estimate TC rainfall. The simulated data from the combined model are then fitted to a probability distribution function to compute the spatially heterogeneous risk brought by landfalling TCs. The methodology is employed in South Korea as a case study to be able to implement a country-scale-based vulnerability inspection from damaging TC impacts. Results show that the proposed model can produce TC tracks that do not only follow the spatial distribution of past TCs but also reveal new paths that could be utilized to consider events outside of what has been historically observed. The model is also found to be suitable for properly estimating the total rainfall induced by landfalling TCs across various points of interest within the study area. The simulated TC rainfall data enable us to reliably estimate extreme rainfall from higher return periods that are often overlooked when only the historical data is employed. In addition, the model can properly describe the distribution of rainfall extremes that show a heterogeneous pattern throughout the study area and that vary per return period. Overall, results show that the proposed approach can be a valuable tool in providing sufficient TC rainfall samples that could be an aid in improving TC risk assessment.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.359-367
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• 2008

마이크로파 센서로부터 산출된 물리량과 태풍강도와의 관련성을 2004년 6월에서 9월까지 관측된 태풍과 TRMM TMI 자료를 이용하여 조사하였다. TMI 관측으로부터 산출된 85 GHz 밝기온도(TB), 편광보정온도(PCT), 총 수증기량, 얼음, 강우강도, 잠열방출량은 RMSC-Tokyo의 태풍 best-track 데이터베이스의 최대 풍속으로 정의된 태풍강도와 상관분석을 실시하였다 TB와 태풍강도의 최대 상관계수는 태풍 중심으로부터 반경 2.5도 공간평균을 하였을 때 $-0.2{\sim}-0.4$를 나타냈다. 총 수증기량, 강우강도, 잠열방출량과 태풍강도와의 상관계수는 $0.2{\sim}0.4$를 보였다. 태풍 강도 크기에 따른 상관계수 분포는 태풍 발달의 초기 단계에서는 열대성 저기압 중심으로부터 반경 $1.0{\sim}1.5$도 공간 평균을 하였을 때 최대값을 보였으나 태풍이 가장 크게 발달하였을 때는 태풍 중심에서 반경 0.5도의 공간 평균을 하였을 때 최대 상관성이 나타났다. 최대 상관계수를 나타낸 변수와 공간 규모는 회귀분석으로부터 태풍을 강도를 산출할 수 있으며 태풍 Rusa(2002)와 Maemi(2003)에 적용하였다. 태풍 강도의 오차는 태풍 강도 크기를 고려한 85GHz TB와 총 수증기량의 다중 회귀에서 최소를 보였다. 본 연구는 마이크로파 위성 관측의 TB와 총 수중기량으로부터 태풍 강도 산출에 기여할 수 있음을 지시한다.

• 대기
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.183-198
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to summarize the tropical cyclone (TC) activity of 2008 over the western North Pacific including the verification of the official track and intensity forecast errors of these TCs. The TC activity - frequency, Normalized Typhoon Activity (NTA), and life span - was lower than 58-year (1951-2008) average. 22 tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2008. The total number is less than 58-year average frequency of 26.4. Out of 22 tropical cyclones, 11 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 11 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - six STS and five TS storms. One typhoon KALMAEGI (0807) among them affected the Korea peninsula. However, no significant impact - casualty or property damage - was reported. On average of 22 TCs in 2008, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) official track forecast error for 48 hours was 229 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0806 FENGSHEN and 0817 HIGOS presenting significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. The tropical cyclone season in 2008 began in April with the formation of NEOGURI (0801). In May, four TCs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to August. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2008 summertime. The 2008 TC activity has continued the below normal state since mid 1990s which is apparent the decadal variability in TC activity.