• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.339-352
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• 2015

This study analyzed the change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity according to the fluctuation in July-to-September average North Pacific Oscillation index (NPOI) and its underlying large-scale environment during the last 37 years from 1977 to 2013. For this purpose, seven years with highest index NPOI value (positive NPOI phase) and another seven years with lowest NPOI index value (negative NPOI phase) among the 37 years were selected as sample after excluding the ENSO years. During the positive NPOI phase, TCs were created in the east of tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and moved to the west from the Philippines toward the southern region in China or toward far eastern sea of Japan. Meanwhile, during the negative NPOI phase, TCs tended to proceed to the north toward Korea or Japan passing East China Sea from the eastern sea of the Philippines. As a result, also in the TC recurvature, TCs in positive NPOI phase showed a tendency of recurving toward more eastern direction compared to TCs in negative NPOI phase. Hence, TC intensity was stronger in negative NPOI phase which allowed more time for obtaining energy from the ocean.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.327-331
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• 2007

23 tropical cyclones of tropical storm(TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2006. The total number is less than the 30-year $(1971{\sim}2000)$ average frequency of 26.7, Out of 23, 15 cyclones reached typhoon(TY) intensity, three severe tropical storm(STS) intensity, and five TS intensity. The tropical cyclone season in 2006 began in May with the formation of CHANCHU(0601). While convective activity was slightly inactive around the Philippines from late June to early August. In addition, subtropical high was more enhanced than normal over the south of Japan from May to early August. Consequently, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines after late June, and many of them moved westwards to China. CHANCHU(0601), BILIS(0604), KAEMI(0605), PRAPIROON(0606) and SAOMI(0608) brought damage to China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the other hand, EWINIAR(0603) moved northwards and hit the Republic of Korea, causing damage to the country From late August to early September, convective activity was temporarily inactive over the sea east of the Philippines. However, it turned active again after late September. Subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan after late August. Therefore, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines and moved northwards. WUKONG(0610) and SHANSHAN(0613) hit Japan to bring damage to the country. On the other hand, XANGSANE(0615) and CIMARON(0619) moved westwards in the South China Sea, causing damage to the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. In addition, IOKE(0612) was the first namded cyclone formed in the central North Pacific and moved westwards across longitude 180 degrees east after HUKO(0224).

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.183-197
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to summarize tropical cyclone activity in 2007. 24 tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2007. The total number is less than the thirty-year (1971~2000) average frequency of 26.7. Out of twenty four tropical cyclones, 14 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 10 only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - four STS and six TS storms. The tropical cyclone season in 2007 began in April with the formation of KONG-REY (0701). From April to May, two TCs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity there. From June to July, convective activity turned inactive over the sea around the Philippines and in the South China Sea, and the subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan. MAN-YI (0704) and USAGI (0705) moved northwestward and hit Japan, bringing serious damage to the country. After August, convective activity became enhanced over the sea east of the Philippines, and the subtropical high turned strong over the sea south of Japan. Many TCs, which formed over the sea east of the Philippines and in the South China Sea, moved westward and hit China and Vietnam. PABUK (0706), WUTIP (0707), SEPAT (0708), WIPHA (0712), LEKIMA (0714) and KROSA (0715) brought serious damage to some countries including China, the Philippines and Vietnam. On the other hand, FITOW (0709) and NARI (0711) moved northward, bringing serious damage to Japan and Korea. After HAIYAN (0716), all four TCs except FAXAI (0720) formed over the sea east of $140^{\circ}E$. Three typhoons among them affected Republic of Korea, MAN-YI (0704), USAGI (0705) and NARI (0711). Particularly, NARI (0711) moved northward and made landfall at Goheng Peninsula ($34.5^{\circ}N$, $127.4^{\circ}E$) in 1815 KST 16 September. Due to $11^{th}$ typhoon NARI, strong wind and record-breaking rainfall amount was observed in Jeju Island. It was reported that the daily precipitation was 420.0 mm at Jeju city, Jeju Island on 16 September the highest daily rainfall since Jeju began keeping records in 1927. This typhoon hit the southern part of the Korean peninsula and Jeju Island. 18 people lost their lives, 14,170 people were evacuated and US$ 1.6 billion property damage was occurred.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.387-398
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• 2010

This study shows that frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) around Korea in summer (June-September) has positive relation with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the preceding April. In a positive AO phase, each of anomalous cyclone and anomalous anticyclone is developed in low latitude and middle latitude regions of East Asia from the preceding April to summer. As a result, while anomalous southeasterly around Korea serves as a steering flow that TCs move toward this area is strengthened, northwesterly that reinforced in southeastern area of East Asia plays a role in preventing TCs from moving toward this area. In addition, due to this distribution of pressure systems developed in this AO phase, TCs tend to occur, move and recurve in further northeastern region in the western North Pacific than TCs in a negative AO phase. On the contrary, TCs in a negative AO phase mainly move westward toward southern China or Indochina Peninsula from Philippines. Eventually, intensity of TCs is weaker than those in a positive AO phase due to the terrain effect caused by high passage frequency of TCs in mainland China.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.565-571
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• 2014

A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in consideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.49-58
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• 2012

Through a statistical change-point analysis, this study found that Korea landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) frequency has increased rapidly since 1981. This increase is due to the following phenomenon. When anomalous cyclone is developed in the East Asian continent, anomalous anticyclone is reinforced in the western Pacific, which is related to the eastward shift of western North Pacific high, and thus anomalous southerly is formed to Korea from low-latitudes. This anomalous southerly plays an important role as steering flow in moving TCs toward Korea. To examine the cause of the development of anomalous cyclone in the East Asian continent, this study analyzed the water equivalent of accumulated snow depth during the preceding spring (March to May). As a result, less snow depth is observed in most regions of the East Asian continent than before 1981. Therefore, anomalous cyclone in the East Asian continent in summer can be reinforced by the land heating from the preceding spring and then the steering flow of anomalous southerly that moves TCs toward Korea can be also developed to Korea from low-latitudes in summer.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.257-270
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• 2017

Solar activity is known to be linked to changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Nonetheless, for other types of extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), the available evidence is less conclusive. In this study the modulation of TC genesis over the western North Pacific by the solar activity is investigated, in comparison with a large-scale environmental parameter, i.e., El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, we have obtained the best track data for TCs in the western North Pacific from 1977 to 2016, spanning from the solar cycle 21 to the solar cycle 24. We have confirmed that in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods TCs tend to form in the southeast, reach its maximum strength in the southeast, and end its life as TSs in the northeast, compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods are found to last longer compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. Furthermore, TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods have a lower central pressure at their maximum strength than those occurring in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. We have found that TCs occurring in the solar maximum periods resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. We have also found that TCs occurring in the solar descending periods somehow resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. To make sure that it is not due to the ENSO effect, we have excluded TCs both in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods and in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods from the data set and repeated the analysis. In addition to this test, we have also reiterated our analysis twice with TCs whose maximum sustained winds speed exceeds 17 m/s, instead of 33 m/s, as well as TCs designated as a typhoon, which ends up with the same conclusions.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 2012

We investigated the interannual relationship between chlorophyll concentrations in the western North Pacific and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific by analyzing data collected for >12 years. Despite the short-term scale (2~3 weeks) in the contribution of tropical cyclones to phytoplankton, the current study revealed that the long-term chlorophyll variability in the western North Pacific is profoundly related to long-term variability in the frequency of TCs. It was also found that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) tends to control such relationships between the 2 bio-physical systems. This result suggests a significant climatic relationship between TC activity and marine phytoplankton, and also suggests the possibility of more accurate estimations of primary production in the western North Pacific.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.359-372
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• 2016

The time-series of Walker circulation index (WCI) in this study shows the strengthening of the Walker circulation in recent years. To further understand the large-scale features related to the WCI strengthening, a difference between the averaged meteorological variables in two time periods 1999-2013 and 1984-1998 is analyzed. The difference in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods shows that the anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) are dominant due to the strengthening of anomalous anticyclonic circulations at the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. The difference between the averaged zonal atmospheric circulations over $5^oS-5^oN$ in the two periods confirms that upward flows are strengthened at the tropical western Pacific and downward flows are strengthened at the tropical central and eastern Pacific in recent years. It matches the WCI strengthening in recent years. The time-series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency from July to September shows that a mean TC genesis frequency from 1999-2013 decreases compared to that of the time period 1984-1998. The monsoon trough in the period 1984-1998 was located in the further east direction and stronger than that in the period 1999-2013. TCs in the recent period that are generated in further west than TCs in the past period moved from the west. Thus, the TC intensity along the coasts in East Asia becomes weaker in recent period. The intensification of Walker circulation in recent years is related to the weaker TC intensity in East Asia through strengthened anomalous anticyclones at the subtropical western Pacific.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.123-130
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• 2014

The automated prediction system for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is established at the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to provide effective operation and control of the system for user who lacks knowledge of the system. For automation of the system, two procedures which include subjective decisions by user are performed in advance, and their output data are provided as input data. To provide the capability to understand the operational processes for operational user, the input and output data are summarized with each process, and the directory structure is reconstructed following KMA's standard. We introduce a user interface using namelist input parameters to effectively control operational conditions which is fixed or should be manually set in the previous version of the prediction system. To operationally use early prediction which become available through the automation, its performances are evaluated according to initial condition dates. As a result, high correlations between the observed and predicted TC counts are kept for all track clusters even though advancing the initial condition date from May to January.