• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trend growth

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A Slowdown in Korea's GDP Trend Growth and Its Decomposition (한국경제의 추세성장률 하락과 요인분해)

  • Seok, Byoung Hoon;Lee, Nam Gang
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 2021
  • Using an unobserved components model that features trend growth as a random walk, we find that GDP trend growth rates had gradually declined from the late 1980s to early 2010s in Korea. To uncover the underlying features of the slowdown, we use trend growth accounting. A major feature appears to be a significant decline in the growth rate of labor productivity. To be specific, the first gradual decline in trend growth, which started in 1988 and continued to 1998, is associated with a drop in TFP measured in labor-augmenting units. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in GDP trend growth can be attributed to the 1997-1998 Korean financial crisis. Sluggish investment growth is behind the second period of the gradual slowdown, from 2002 to 2012.

Long-run Equilibrium Relationship Between Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Philippines

  • MONSURA, Melcah Pascua;VILLARUZ, Roselyn Mostoles
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2021
  • The financial sector is one of the most important building blocks of the economy. When this sector efficiently implemented a well-crafted program on banking and financial system to translate financial activities to income-generating activity, economic growth will be realized. Hence, this study analyzed the effect of financial intermediation on economic growth and the existence of cointegrating relationship using time-series data from 1986 to 2015. The influence of financial intermediation in terms of bank credit to bank deposit ratio, private credit, and stock market capitalization and time trend to economic growth was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression. The results showed that all the financial intermediation indicators and time trend exert significant effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The positive sign of the time trend indicates that there is an upward trend in GDP per capita averaging approximately 0.06 percent annually. Furthermore, the cointegration test using the Johansen procedure revealed that there is a presence of long-term equilibrium relationship between financial intermediation and time trend and economic growth, and rules out spurious regression results. This study established the idea that financial intermediation in the Philippines has a significant and vital role in stimulating growth in the economy.

Clustering Asian and North African Countries According to Trend of Colon and Rectum Cancer Mortality Rates: an Application of Growth Mixture Models

  • Zayeri, Farid;Sheidaei, Ali;Mansouri, Anita
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.4115-4121
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    • 2015
  • Background: Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death with half a million deaths per year. Incidence and mortality rates have demonstrated notable changes in Asian and African countries during the last few decades. In this study, we first aimed to determine the trend of colorectal cancer mortality rate in each Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) region, and then re-classify them to find more homogenous classes. Materials and Methods: Our study population consisted of 52 countries of Asia and North Africa in six IHME pre-defined regions for both genders and age-standardized groups from 1990 to 2010.We first applied simple growth models for pre-defined IHME regions to estimate the intercepts and slopes of mortality rate trends. Then, we clustered the 52 described countries using the latent growth mixture modeling approach for classifying them based on their colorectal mortality rates over time. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that males and people in high income Asia pacific and East Asia countries were at greater risk of death from colon and rectum cancer. In addition, South Asia region had the lowest rates of mortality due to this cancer. Simple growth modeling showed that majority of IHME regions had decreasing trend in mortality rate of colorectal cancer. However, re-classification these countries based on their mortality trend using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to colorectal mortality trend. Conclusions: In general, our statistical analyses showed that most Asian and North African countries had upward trend in their colorectal cancer mortality. We therefore urge the health policy makers in these countries to evaluate the causes of growing mortality and study the interventional programs of successful countries in managing the consequences of this cancer.

Genetic Trend for Growth in a Closed Indian Herd of Landrace × Desi Crossbreds

  • Gaur, G.K.;Ahlawat, S.P.S.;Chhabra, A.K.;Paul, Satya
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.363-367
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    • 1998
  • This study has objectives of to estimate the genetic and phenotypic trend for growth in a closed herd of Landrace $\times$ desi crossbreds. The possibility of early selection of boars was also investigated in order to reduce generation interval and thus, to enhance response per year in selection programmes. The data originated from Livestock Production Research (Pigs), Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI), Izatnagar (UP), India - a unit of All India Coordinated research Project on Pigs (AICRP on Pigs). Data consisted of 891 crossbred piglets, progeny of 29 boars. The piglets were born in 132 parities of 72 sows between 8 years from 1987 to 1994. Records on weight at birth, at 2 weeks interval upto 8 weeks of age (Wl, W2, ${\cdots}\;{\cdots}$ W8) and at 16th week (W16) were used in this investigation. BLLTP estimates of the sires were computed. Breeding value of each sire was estimated as twice of sire and sire group solutions. Phenotypic trend was estimated as regression of weight performance on year. Genetic trend was computed by estimating regression of breeding value of sires on time. Average body weights ranged from 0.92 kg (W1) to 18.95 kg (W16) and showed a continuous increase over age. Heritabilities of the weight at 4th and 6th week were medium (0.29 and 0.14). Rest of the weights were highly heritable. The product moment and rank, both correlations were high between breeding value for W6 and W16 (0.68 and 0.70). This shows that sire selection for W6 can be successfully implemented in order to achieve sufficient genetic improvement in growth. Phenotypic trend was positive at all ages. The phenotypic regression coefficient ranged from 0.02 kg at birth to 0.40 kg at 16 weeks. Genetic trend was also positive. The regression coefficients of average breeding value of sires on time showed a range of 1.471 kg (0.021 to 1.492 kg) for different weights. These coefficients were significant and higher than their corresponding phenotypic regression coefficient.

A Trend Analysis of Competition Positioning in Korean Seaport by Using BCG Matrix

  • Park, Ro-Kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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    • 2006.08a
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    • pp.253-276
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    • 2006
  • This paper has shown the trend of competition positioning of 26 Korean ports in 1994, 1999, and 2003 by using BCG matrix which consists of relative market shares, growth rate of cargo handling, and also growth rate and CCR and BCC efficiency scores with scale efficiency scores in the vertical and horizontal axes. The empirical main results are as follows. First, Incheon Port, Pyungtag Port, Gwangyang Port, Busan Port, Pohang Port and Woolsan Port have shown their competitive positioning in terms of market share and growth rate. Second, Pyungtag Port, Wando Port, Tongyoung Port, Gohyun Port, Samcheog Port, and Okgae Port have their competitive positioning in terms of growth rate and scale efficiency scores. The main policy implication of this paper is to emphasize that BCG matrix method using in this paper can give seaport manager the basic information for planning the future port management for enhancing the competitive positioning among Korean seaports.

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Trends in the Growth of Literature on Hepatitis(1984-2003): Quantitative Analysis (간염에 관한 문헌의 증가추세(1984-2003): 계량적 분석)

  • Babu, B. Ramesh;Ramakrishnan, J.
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.31-50
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a scientometric analysis of the growth of literature output in the field of Hepatitis covered in three bibliographic databases namely MEDLINE, CINAHL and IPA. The literature covered in three databases for the period 1984-2003 was considered. MEDLINE covered the maximum of 75750 records during the study period 1984 to 2003. This is followed by CINAHL and IPA databases. It is found that the annual growth rate of literature in a particular field of knowledge will not be uniform and in order to measure the rate of growth from year after year, the application of RGR is quite appropriate. The RGR has shown a decreasing trend, with a slight fluctuation of growth rate for the years 1985 and 1997. The output by colleges, universities, corporate sector and research institutions with reference to RGR and Dt has shown mixed results such as increasing trend, decreasing trend and fluctuation trend. Hepatitis research indicates a different picture when the RGR and Dt were calculated by year-wise both in terms of number of papers and number of pages.

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Population Forecasting System Based on Growth Curve Models (성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측 시스템)

  • 최종후;최봉호;양우성;김유진
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.197-215
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    • 2000
  • 이 논문에서는 선형·비선형 성장곡선모형의 종류와 특성을 살펴보고, 이들을 비교·검토하고, 모형선호기준 통계량에 입각하여 추정결과를 비교한다. 또한 최종사용자 환경을 위한 SAS/AF로 구현한 성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측시스템을 소개한다.

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Nutritional status of toddlers and preschoolers according to household income level: overweight tendency and micronutrient deficiencies

  • Kim, Kirang;Shin, Sam Cheol;Shim, Jae Eun
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.547-553
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUNDS/OBJECTIVES: The effects of malnutrition on growth of toddlers and preschoolers by socioeconomic status are not well known. This study aimed to examine the effects of dietary intake on growth outcomes in toddlers and preschoolers by household income level. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The study population was a total of 1,687 children aged 1 to 5 years that participated in the KNHANES from 2009 to 2011. Growth of children was assessed by height for age (HFA) and weight for height (WFH). Children were classified into three groups according to children's HFA and WFH compared to the $10^{th}$ and $90^{th}$ percentiles of the 2007 Korean Children and Adolescent Growth Standard. Average monthly household income was divided into quartile groups. Dietary intake data were obtained by using the one day 24-hr recall method. Risks of inadequate intake of nutrients and unfavorable growth were estimated by using a multiple logistic regression model adjusted for sex, age, region, and energy intake. RESULTS: The low HFA group (<$10^{th}$ percentile) had significantly lower intakes of energy, carbohydrate, and thiamin as compared with the high group (${\geq}90^{th}$ percentile). For WFH status, vitamin C intake was lower in the low group than in the high group. Household income level was related to WFH status but not HFA. Children from lower income households were more likely to have high WFH than those from higher income households (P for trend = 0.038). Household income status was also significantly related with risk of inadequate intake of micronutrients such as thiamin (P for trend = 0.032) and vitamin C (P for trend = 0.002), showing higher odds of inadequate intakes in children from lower income households. CONCLUSIONS: Children from lower income households were prone to be overweight and to have inadequate intakes of micronutrients such as thiamin and vitamin C. To reduce nutritional and health disparities, collective action in the public sector is required from early life.

A Suggestion of New R&D Strategy based on an Analysis on a Trend of Evolution of World Wide High-Speed Rail Technology (최근 세계 고속철도 기술의 진화경향 분석을 통한 한국 고속철도의 향후 기술개발 전략)

  • Kim, Ki-Hwan;Mok, On-Yong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05b
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2009
  • The Korean high-speed rail network has been made a remarkable growth recording the world's 4th rank passenger transportation scale during last 5 years after opening the revenue service of Kyoung-bu high-speed line in 2004. However, in spite of it's outstanding growth, Korean Rail technology should meet a demand of intensive technology development in order to prepare a severe competition with an advance parties of worldwide high-speed rail technology. In this paper, the characteristics and new trend of world's rail industry was reviewed based on the most recent statistics and papers of worldwide rail network from UIC and WCR32008. In conclusion, new R&D strategy with choice an concentration for the Korean high-speed rail industry was suggested based on an analysis on the trend of evolution of the state of the art technologies in worldwide high-speed rail system.

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Simulating the Impacts of the Greenbelt Policy Reform on Sustainable Urban Growth: The Case of Busan Metropolitan Area

  • Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Soyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 2015
  • The greenbelt of South Korea has been under the process of adjustment and removal since its first designated year. This research is aimed at predicting the effect that the removal of the greenbelt has on urban growth. The SLEUTH model was executed via three calibration phases using historical data between 1990 and 2010. The urban growth of Busan Metropolitan City was predicted under its historical trend, as well as two different scenarios including development and compact development up to the year 2030. The accuracy of model, as verified by ROC, was 85.7%. The historical trend scenario showed the smallest increase, with the urban area expanding from 175.96 km2 to 214.68 km2 in 2030. Scenario 2, the development scenario, showed the most increase, with a 39.9% growth rate from 2010 to 2030. However, according to scenario 3, the compact development scenario, the urban area decreased in comparison to scenario 2. Accordingly, it is necessary to have effective urban growth management to provoke eco-friendly development on the removed areas, and to strengthen the non-removed areas for sustainable development. The results obtained in this study showed that the SLEUTH model can be useful for predicting urban growth, and that it can help policy makers establish proper urban planning as a decision-support tool for sustainable development.