• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.369-379
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• 2014

The Statistical regression model has been used to construct crash prediction models, despite its limitations in assuming data distribution and functional form. In response to the limitations associated with the statistical regression models, a few studies based on non-parametric methods such as neural networks have been proposed to develop crash prediction models. However, these models have a major limitation in that they work as black boxes, and therefore cannot be directly used to identify the relationships between crash frequency and crash factors. A genetic programming model can find a solution to a problem without any specified assumptions and remove the black box effect. Hence, this paper investigates the application of the genetic programming technique to develope the crash prediction model. The data collected from the Gyeongbu expressway during the past three years (2010-2012), were separated into straight and curve sections. The random forest technique was applied to select the important variables that affect crash occurrence. The genetic programming model was developed based on the variables that were selected by the random forest. To test the goodness of fit of the genetic programming model, the RMSE of each model was compared to that of the negative binomial regression model. The test results indicate that the goodness of fit of the genetic programming models is superior to that of the negative binomial models.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.61-71
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• 2003

Existent DDHV draws and is calculating K coefficient. D coefficient from sum of traffic volume two-directions time. There is difference of design order and actuality order, error of DDHV estimation value, problem of irregular change etc. of DDHV thereby. In this study, among traffic volume of each other independent two direction(going up, going down), decide design target order in the directional traffic volume, presented way(way) applying without separating K coefficient and D coefficient at the same time. The result were analysis about national highway permanent count point 360 points 30 orders by existing DDHV estimation value method(separation plan) analysis wave and following variation appear. - design order and actuality order are collision at 357 agencies(99.2%) - actuality order special quality : Measuring efficiency of average 80 orders, maximum 1,027 order, minimum 2 orders - error distribution of design order and actuality order : inside 10 hours is(30$\pm$10hour) 106 points(29.4%), 254 points(70.6%) more than 30 orders and $\pm$10 orders error occurrence be - DDHV estimation value : Average 8.4%, maximum 46.7% The other side, average 50 orders. error improvement effect of DDHV 8.4% was analysed that is at design hourly volume computation by inseparability method in case of AADT premises correct thing because inseparability plan agrees actuality order at whole agency with design order and measuring efficiency of DDHV estimation value is "0".t;0".uot;.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.95-105
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• 2003

Because the basic assumptions of deterministic user equilibrium assignment that all network users have perfect information of network condition and determine their routes without errors are known to be unrealistic, several stochastic assignment models have been proposed to relax this assumption. However. it is not easy to solve such stochastic assignment models due to the probability distribution they assume. Also. in order to avoid all path enumeration they restrict the number of feasible path set, thereby they can not preciously explain the travel behavior when the travel cost is varied in a network loading step. Another problem of the stochastic assignment models is stemmed from that they use heuristic approach in attaining optimal moving size, due to the difficulty for evaluation of their objective function. This paper presents a logit-based stochastic assignment model and its solution algorithm to cope with the problems above. We also provide a stochastic user equilibrium condition of the model. The model is based on path where all feasible paths are enumerated in advance. This kind of method needs a more computing demand for running the model compared to the link-based one. However, there are same advantages. It could describe the travel behavior more exactly, and too much computing time does not require than we expect, because we calculate the path set only one time in initial step Two numerical examples are also given in order to assess the model and to compare it with other methods.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.577-592
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• 1996

The forming process of poverty region in Taegu and the feature of its spatial distribution which are reviewed hitherto can be summarized like this. 1) In the froming porcess of poverty region in Taegu, during the soverignty of Japanese Empire petty farmers became tenantry by the colonial agricultural policy of Japanes Empire and some of those came into the city and g\became urban poor class. They generally lived in poor houses or dugouts in the city, and 6.6$\circ$ of poor house and dugouts of the whole country were in Taegu and 4.9$\circ of the popolatio in Taegu resided there. During the period of disorder, because of the historic accidents, such as the restoration of independence and Korean War, the returnees from aboad and refugees converged into the big city so that those who need the country's relief stood out as new poor class. They generally made their dwellings with tents and straw-bags on vacant grounds in suburbs living form hand to mouth and shaped the poor houses area, so-clalled "Liberated Village". During the developing period, the number of those who need aid gradually decreased, but the problem of poor people by the city-concentration of the poeple who shifted from agricultrual jobs by economic development came to the front. They mostly lived in squatter area forming large poor class area, and generally located near the center of Taegu consisiting of West. South. East Ward. 2) Reviewing the the feature of spatial distribution, the proportion of poor class are highest within 1~2km from the center of the city and also high within 2~3km form the center and suburbs. The poor class area in the center of the city are mostly cleared and removed area and in suburbs by the construction of permanently leased, and leased apartments large grouped poor class areas are forming. In Taegu, 16 low-income class group residence areas and residential environement improving areas are dispersed so that they came under the so-called poor class area. But by the improvement of dewelling environment and living the poor people who lived in groups dispersed or bettered their living for themselves, so the poverty area is greatly chaning into average-levelled residence area, and on the other hand, large poor people's apartment complexes are being constructed in suburbs. 3) Up to now, the distribution of poverty area could be limited its scale to generally the area within 1~3km because the poverty region which had been in suburbs relatively came near the center of the city by the rapid urbanization and poor people preferred that area because of the living convenience facilities as well as the transportation facilities and job-hunting being near the center of the city. But now poor people's apartment complex is being constructed regardless of their zone of job sites, so the low proportion of occupation is pointed as a new problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.360-373
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• 2017

The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2013.06a
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• pp.214-215
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• 2013

Current competition among companies than regional, the time constraints, it is globalization, Tilt the efforts of many to be operated by building the efficient distribution system to reduce logistics costs and improve customer service it is reality's there. Therefore, the need for industrial complexes environmentally friendly can be cost competitive companies perform cavitation region's increased. To build the distribution center these logistics system through a joint of freight and appropriate policy is required. In particular, efficient operation through the system construction of industrial complexes in the logistics system is very important in terms of friendly low-cost urban logistics, the environment. Since the traffic volume which is Jipufa and utilization of network is transported by a more appropriate technicians and means suitable operating model can efficiency is improved. However, despite these advantages, research network design has not been actively conducted due to the complexity of the problem. Therefore, in this study, by analyzing the logistics system, and presents the operating model through a simulation and basic settings for the model of the logistics complex based on the analysis result, the construction of infrastructure of logistics industry complex it is intended to present the article.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.35-47
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• 2001

Traffic represents one of the largest sources of primary air pollutants in urban area. As a consequence. numerous abatement strategies are being pursued to decrease the ambient concentration of pollutants. A characteristic of most of the these strategies is a requirement for accurate data on both the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions to air in the form of an atmospheric emission inventory database. In the case of traffic pollution, such an inventory must be compiled using activity statistics and emission factors for vehicle types. The majority of inventories are compiled using passive data from either surveys or transportation models and by their very nature tend to be out-of-date by the time they are compiled. The study of current trends are towards integrating urban traffic control systems and assessments of the environmental effects of motor vehicles. In this study, a methodology of motor vehicle emission calculation by using real-time traffic data was studied. A methodology for estimating emissions of CO at a test area in Seoul. Traffic data, which are required on a street-by-street basis, is obtained from induction loops of traffic control system. It was calculated speed-related mass of CO emission from traffic tail pipe of data from traffic system, and parameters are considered, volume, composition, average velocity, link length. And, the result was compared with that of a method of emission calculation by VKT(Vehicle Kilometer Travelled) of vehicles of category.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.97-158
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to research on the contents and improvement of national legislations relating to space development in Korea to make the sustainable progress of space development project in Korea. Korea has launched its first satellite KITST-1 in 1992. The National Space Committee has established "The Space Development Promotion Basic Plan" in 2007. The plan addressed the development of total 13 satellites by 2010 and the space launch vehicle by 2020, and the launch of moon exploration spaceship by 2021. Korea has built the space center at Oinarodo, Goheng Province in June 2009. In Korea the first small launch vehicle KSLV-1 was launched at the Naro Space Center in August 2009, and its second launch was made in June 2010. The United Nations has adopted five treaties relating to the development of outer space as follows : The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the Rescue and Return Agreement of 1968, the Liability Convention of 1972, the Registration Convention of 1974, and the Moon Treaty of 1979. All five treaties has come into force. Korea has ratified the Outer Space Treaty, the Rescue and Return Agreement, the Liability Convention and the Registration Convention excepting the Moon Treaty. Most of development countries have enacted the national legislation relating to the development of our space as follows : The National Aeronautic and Space Act of 1958 and the Commercial Space Act of 1998 in the United States, Outer Space Act of 1986 in England, Establishment Act of National Space Center of 1961 in France, Canadian Space Agency Act of 1990 in Canada, Space Basic Act of 2008 in Japan, and Law on Space Activity of 1993 in Russia. There are currently three national legislations relating to space development in Korea as follows : Aerospace Industry Development Promotion Act of 1987, Outer Space Development Promotion Act of 2005, Outer Space Damage Compensation Act of 2008. The Ministry of Knowledge Economy of Korea has announced the Full Amendment Draft of Aerospace Industry Development Promotion Act in December 2009, and it's main contents are as follows : (1) Changing the title of Act into Aerospace Industry Promotion Act, (2) Newly regulating the definition of air flight test place, etc., (3) Establishment of aerospace industry basic plan, establishment of aerospace industry committee, (4) Project for promoting aerospace industry, (5) Exploration development, international joint development, (6) Cooperative research development, (7) Mutual benefit project, (8) Project for furthering basis of aerospace industry, (9) Activating cluster of aerospace industry, (10) Designation of air flight test place, etc., (11) Abolishing the designation and assistance of specific enterprise, (12) Abolishing the inspection of performance and quality. The Outer Space Development Promotion Act should be revised with regard to the following matters : (1) Overlapping problem in legal system between the Outer Space Development Promotion Act and the Aerospace industry Development promotion Act, (2) Distribution and adjustment problem of the national research development budget for space development between National Space Committee and National Science Technology Committee, (3) Consideration and preservation of environment in space development, (4) Taking the legal action and maintaining the legal system for policy and regulation relating to space development. The Outer Space Damage Compensation Act should be revised with regard to the following matters : (1) Definition of space damage and indirect damage, (2) Currency unit of limit of compensation liability, (3) Joint liability and compensation claim right of launching person of space object, (4) Establishment of Space Damage Compensation Council. In Korea, it will be possible to make a space tourism in 2013, and it is planned to introduce and operate a manned spaceship in 2013. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the policy relating to the promotion of commercial space transportation industry. Also it is necessary to make the proper maintenance of the current Aviation Law and space development-related laws and regulations for the promotion of space transportation industry in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.71-90
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• 2007

To induce container cargos to Gunsan port, we should struggle on securing the quantity of goods transported from the competitive Jeonbuk and Chungcheong areas by reducing transportation expenses by land, and make an activating plan for the international exchange between Gunsan port and nearby ports in China. As a result, if the plan to induce container cargos to Gunsan port is activated, the regular liners will stop at Gusan port. So the new sea route will be opened so that consignors can ship cargos in the proper time. The consignors will use Gunsan port frequently because of the reduction of distribution expenses. To do so, for the first, many incentives should be implemented to attract container cargos. In addition, various facilities should be fully equipped and improved. This paper is to improve the problems for which consignors, the shipping lines and forwarders may feel uncomfortable when they use Gunsan port. According to the research on the actual condition, the biggest problem in Gunsan port is the depth of water. The management, relation system, infrastructure and information system of Gunsan port are also insufficient. Therefore, this paper will make an alternative plan to improve these problems and help the container cargos induce to Gunsan port.