• 한국가스학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.46-52
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• 2017

화학물질 운송과정에서 교통사고로 인한 화학물질 누출사고가 발생할 경우에 대한 정량적 위험성평가를 실시하였고, 이를 기준으로 화학물질 운송경로의 적절성을 평가하였다. 이를 위해 사업장 내부에 설치되어 있는 화학물질 취급설비에서 화학물질 누출사고가 발생할 경우 적용하는 정량적 위험성평가방법을 제시하였고, 이를 화학물질 운송과정에 적용하였다. 운송 차량의 교통사고 건수를 분석하여 화학물질 운송시 화학물질 누출사고가 발생할 확률을 예측하였고, 차량을 이용하여 액화염소용기를 운송할 경우 발생할 수 있는 염소가스 누출사고에 대한 정량적 위험성평가에 적용하였다. 그 결과 위험도를 바탕으로 액화염소용기를 운송하는 차량의 가장 적절한 운행경로를 제시하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.393-398
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• 2021

Current risk assessment of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) transportation has the problem of the incomplete risk factors consideration and the general particle diffusion model utilization. In this paper, the accident frequency calculation and the detailed simulation of the accident consequences are coupled by the integrated risk assessment method. The "man-machine-environment" three-dimensional comprehensive risk indicator system is established and quantified to characterize the frequency of the transportation accidents. Consideration of vegetation, building and turbulence effect, the standard k-ε model is updated to simulate radioactive consequence of leakage accidents under complex terrain. The developed method is applied to assess the risk of the leakage accident in the scene of the typical domestic SNF Road Transportation (SNFRT). The critical risk factors and their impacts on the dispersion of the radionuclide are obtained.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제60권6호
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• pp.433-440
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• 2023

This study aims to establish safety zones for bunkering operations of hydrogen propulsion ships in coastal areas through risk assessment and evaluate their validity. Using a 350 kW-class ferry operating in Busan Port as the subject of analysis, with quantitative risk assessment based on accident consequence and frequency analysis, along with a social risk assessment considering population density. The results of the risk assessment indicate that all scenarios were within acceptable risk criteria and ALARP region. The most critical accident scenarios involve complete hose rupture during bunkering, resulting in jet flames (Frequency: 2.76E-06, Fatalities: 9.81) and vapor cloud explosions (Frequency: 1.33E-08, Fatalities: 14.24). For the recommended safety zone criteria in the 6% hose cross-sectional area leakage scenario, It could be appropriate criteria considering overall risk level and safety zones criteria for hydrogen vehicle refueling stations. This research contributes to establishing safety zone for bunkering operations of hydrogen propulsion ships through risk assessment and provides valuable technical guidelines.

• 방사선산업학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.83-92
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• 2023

When assessing the risk of radioactive wastes transportation on land, computer codes such as RADTRAN and RISKIND are used as deterministic methods. Transportation risk assessment using the deterministic method requires a relatively short assessment time. On the other hand, transportation risk assessment using the probabilistic method requires a relatively long assessment time, but produces more reliable results. Therefore, a study is needed to evaluate the exposure dose using a deterministic method that can be evaluated relatively quickly, and to compare and analyze the exposure dose result using a probabilistic method. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the exposure dose during transportation of radioactive wastes using deterministic and probabilistic methods, and to compare and analyze them. For this purpose, the main exposure factors were selected and various exposure situations were set. The distance between the radioactive waste and the receptor, the size of the package, and the speed of vehicle were selected as the main exposure factors. The exposure situation was largely divided into when the radioactive wastes were stationary and when they were passing. And the dose (rate) model of the deterministic overland transportation risk assessment computer code was analyzed. Finally, the deterministic method of the RADTRAN computer code and the RISKIND computer code and the probabilistic method of the MCNP 6 computer code were used to evaluate the exposure dose in various exposure situations during transportation of radioactive wastes. Then we compared and analyzed them. As a result of the evaluation, the tendency of the exposure dose (rate) was similar when the radioactive wastes were stationary and passing. For the same situation, the evaluation results of the RADTRAN computer code were generally more conservative than the results of the RISKIND computer code and the MCNP 6 computer code. The evaluation results of the RISKIND computer code and the MCNP 6 computer code were relatively similar. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for establishing the radioactive wastes transportation risk assessment system in Korea in the future.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.721-733
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• 2017

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this model.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.80-87
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• 2021

Risk assessment techniques are processes used to evaluate hazardous risk factors in construction sites, facilities, raw materials, machinery, and equipment, and to estimate the size of risk that could lead to injury or disease, and establish countermeasures. The most important thing in assessing risk is calculating the size of the risk. If the size of the risk cannot be calculated objectively and quantitatively, all members who participated in the evaluation would passively engage in establishing and implementing appropriate measures. Therefore, this study focused on predicting accidents that are expected to occur in the future based on past occupational accident statistics, and quantifying the size of the risk in an overview. The technique employed in this study differs from other risk assessment techniques in that the subjective elements of evaluators were excluded as much as possible by utilizing past occupational accident statistics. This study aims to calculate the size of the risk, regardless of evaluators, such as a manager, supervisor, safety manager, or employee. The size of the risk is the combination of the likelihood and severity of an accident. In this study, the likelihood of an accident was evaluated using the theory of Bud Accident Chainability, and the severity of an accident was calculated using the occupational accident statistics over the past five years according to the accident classification by the International Labor Organization.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.220-225
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• 2013

항구 등 선박교통이 밀집된 구역에서 선박의 사고는 빈번하게 발생한다. 해양사고는 한번 발생하면 대형사고로 이어질 확률이 높으므로, 철저한 해상교통관리가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 실 해역의 통계적인 해상교통정보와 실시간 선박 통항분포를 바탕으로 항로 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 시뮬레이터를 개발하고자 한다. 항로 위험도 평가 시뮬레이터는 항로정보 입력부, 통항분포 분석부, 알고리즘 실행부로 구성하였다. 또한 완도해역의 해상교통정보를 시뮬레이터에 적용하여 항로의 정량적인 항로 위험도를 산출하고자 한다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제37권6호
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• pp.567-574
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• 2013

Although Korea coastal area has the increasing potential marine accident due to frequent ship's encounter, increased vessel traffic and large vessel, there is no specific model to evaluate the navigating vessel's risk considering the domestic traffic situation. The maritime transport environmental assessment is necessary due to the amended maritime traffic law. However, marine safety diagnosis is now carried out by foreign model. In this paper, therefore, we suggest a domestic traffic model reflecting the characteristics of korea coastal area and navigator's risk as we named PARK(Potential Assessment of Risk) model. We can evaluate the subjective risk by establishing the model and model output into maritime risk exposure system. To evaluate this model's effectiveness, we used ship handling simulation and applied, analyzed collision accident which occurred in korea coastal area. And also, we applied integrated to an ECDIS program for monitoring traffic risk of vessels with real time based AIS data and apply to evaluate traffic risk in busan harbor waterway. As a result, we could evaluate busan harbor waterway risk effectively.

• 한국재난관리표준학회지
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2008

본 연구는 철도를 통한 위험물 운송시 발생할 수 있는 위험을 정량화하는 방법을 개발하고, 이를 통한 경감대책을 제시한다. 본 논문에서는 철도위험물 수송에 관한 위험도를 평가하기 위한 방법으로 정량적 위험도 평가 방법을 채택하였으며, 과거 사고이력과 더불어 위험이 높을 것으로 판단되는 익산시를 대상으로 했다. 노출인원에 대한 평균개인의 위험을 거리에 따른 위험도로 표현한 결과 원자력 기준 미만으로 안전한 것으로 판단되고, 또한 사회적 위험도로 표현한 결과, 위험경감대책 적용요구 구간(ALARP)범위 내에 포함되어 이에 대한 경감대책을 제시하였다. 위험 경감대책으로 차량설계, 운영, 피해확대 방지, 발생빈도 감소를 위한 탈선사고 방지, 경로변경 방안 등을 제시하였으며 경감대책의 적용으로 높은 수준의 안전성을 확보할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.9-19
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 상선의 운항 사고에 관한 양적 위기평가에 관한 실험적인 접근방법들을 기술했다. 이 연구의 목적은 국제해사기구의 공식 안전성 평가(FSA)를 기반으로 운항 사고에 크게 기여하는 요소들을 분석하고, 양적 위기평가기법에 기반을 둔 운항 사고의 확률적인 위기수준을 평가한 후, 선박 안전을 저해할 수 있는 운항 사고 위기를 예측하는 것이다. 확률지수(PI)와 심각성지수(SI) 구성된 위기지수(RI)에 대한 운항 사고의 확률적인 위기수준은 베이지안 이론을 적용한 베이지안 네트워크를 기반으로 본 연구에서 제안한 운항사고 위기 모델을 이용해서 예측했다. 그리고 355건의 핵심 손상 사고기록으로 구성된 시나리오 그룹을 이용하여 제안한 모델의 적용 가능성을 평가하였다. 평가결과, 예측한 PI의 정답률 $r_{Acc}$은 82.8%로 나타났고, $S_p{\gg}1.0$과 $S_p{\ll}1.0$에 포함되는 PI 변수들의 민감도 초과비율은 10% 이내로 나타났으며, 예측한 SI의 평균 오차 $\bar{d_{SI}}$는 0.0195로 나타났고, 예측한 RI의 정답률은 91.8%로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 제안한 모델과 방법이 실제 해상운송 현장에 적용 가능함을 나타낸다.