• Title/Summary/Keyword: Transit Demand Forecasting

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Diversion Rate Estimation Model for Unexperienced Transportation Mode by Considering Maximum Willingness-to-pay: A Case Study of Personal Rapid Transit (최대 지불의사액을 고려한 미경험 교통수단의 전환율 추정모형: Personal Rapid Transit 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Jeong Whon;Choi, Jung Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2013
  • Personal Rapid Transit(PRT) has emerged as a promising transportation mode for transit-oriented sustainable communities. In this study, an alternative design of questionnaire survey is proposed in order to capture traveler's perception of an unexperienced transportation mode. This study aims at predicting the mode choice diversion behavior of potential PRT users who do not have experience of using it previously, considering their willingness-to-pay. The proposed model was applied to predict an aggregate forecast of PRT patronage for the city of Songdo where PRT is considered to be constructed. For validation of the proposed model, the price elasticity of PRT demand was analyzed, compared with existing models. The analysis results suggest that the proposed design of questionnaire survey is able to capture respondents' attitude and perception to unexperienced transportation mode in an effective manner. Also, they show that the proposed diversion rate model is more realistic than existing models in explaining the effects of users' willingness-to-pay for predicting PRT patronage.

A Mode Choice Model with Market Segmentation of Beneficiary Group of New Transit Facility (신교통수단 수혜자의 시장분할을 고려한 수단선택 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Duck Nyung;Choi, A Reum;Hwang, Jae-Min;Kim, Dong-Kyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.667-677
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    • 2013
  • The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

A Criterion on the Selection of Optimal Mass Transport System by Transportation Corridor based on GIS Buffering Analysis (GIS Buffering 분석에 기반한 교통축별 최적대중교통시스템 선정기준)

  • Kim, ManWoong;Kim, Sigon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2010
  • The existing mass transport system, with its limited capacity and the saturated road networks, has given cause for a new means of transport to be developed, and strong demands for such new means of transport are observed more than ever. However, the traffic authority is seeking a new transport system that focuses more on LRT(Light Rail Transit), a downsized version of the existing urban railroad, rather than one that is appropriate to solve the traffic problems. Moreover, local governments are experiencing difficulties in planning their own mass transportation(bus or urban railroad) as they have no specified criteria for selecting a mass transport system. Accordingly, there has been an increasingly loud voice that calls for criteria to determine which mass transport system befits each transportation corridor. This paper develops a mass-transport demand forecasting model based on the GIS Buffering analysis of each transportation corridor in the city, sets up the capacity for each mass transport system and presents the criteria for selecting an optimal mass transport system for each transportation corridor. It also presents a methodology that identifies necessary and sufficient conditions for selection and evaluation, since it is most important to select the optimal mass-transport system that can meet the demand by each mass-transportation corridor.

Defining Rail Transit Level of Service and Analysis of it's Affection According to Rapid Transit Railway(KTX) (고속철도(KTX) 수요에 따른 dwelling time예측 모형개발)

  • Suh, Sun-Duck;Shin, Young-Ho;Shim, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Hwan-Su
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1612-1627
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    • 2008
  • Dwelling time is one of the factors that influence in rail. Current research in dwelling time has been focusing on railways, the state of the research in high-speed rail's dwelling time is not complete. Dwelling time is consisted of time to open door, time to get into and out of vehicle and time of the departure it takes after the passenger's door was closed, it was affected by various factors such as congestion's degree in vehicle, the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station. In order to analyze theses, we need data analysis such as the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station, congestion's degree in vehicle, but the congestion's degree and passenger's distribution chart in vehicle is excluded in this research due to difficulty of gathering data, and thus we will develop forecasting models through high-speed rail's demand most affected by the dwelling time.

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A Study on Application of GSIS for Transportation Planning and Analysis of Traffic Volume (GSIS를 이용한 교통계획과 교통량분석에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Hwa;Park, Hee-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.1 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 1993
  • GSIS is a system that contains spatially referenced data that can be analyzed and converted to information for a specific set of purpose, or application. The key feature of a GSIS is the analysis of data to produce new information. The current emphasis in the transportation is to implement GSIS in conjunction with real time systems Requirements for a transportation GSIS are very different from the traditional GSIS software that has been designed for environmental and natural resource applications. A transportation GSIS may need to include the ability for franc volume, forecasting, pavement management A regional transportation planning model is actually a set of models that are used to inventory and then forecast a region's population, employment, income, housing and the demand of automobile and transit in a region. The data such as adminstration bound, m of landuse, road networks, location of schools, offices with populations are used in this paper. Many of these data are used for analyzing of traffic volume, traffic demand, time of mad construction using GSIS.

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A Methodology for Defining the Study Impact Area Using Mode Diversion Trip Rate in Rail Infrastructure Feasibility Study (철도사업에서의 수단전환통행비율을 고려한 분석영향권 설정방법론의 개발)

  • Jeon, Gyo Seok;Lee, Kyu Jin;Chung, Woohyun;Choi, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2012
  • The current Korean preliminary feasibility study guidebook provides a simple method for determining the impact area of a transportation project without taking its characteristics into account, which often leads travelers to switch their travel modes. Hence, this study develops a comprehensive methodology for defining the impact area when evaluating railroad projects, which can significantly affect travel mode choice behaviors. To develop the methodology, a hypothetical project was devised. The analysis results show that the convergence of mode-diverted trip rates is improved from 76% to 93% by implementing the proposed method. In addition, there was a significant difference in benefits (about 10.9 billion won) between adopting the current method and the proposed method.

A Study on Low-Floor Bus Routes Selection - Focused on the Case of Jeollabuk-Do - (저상버스 노선선정 방안에 관한 연구 -전라북도 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Youp;Kim, Jai-Sung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2014
  • Approaching to aging society with increasing transportation vulnerable, most developed countries has positively promote low-floor bus. Such circumstance in Korea has plan to introduce low-floor bus to intra-city bus system which accounted for 30 percent of total number of buses however there is no specific operating plan for this matter. According to the revealed preference study on bus service, the study shows that the efficiency of low-floor is relatively low than that of other buses, therefore, it is necessary to establish feasible plan for bus route selection. Thus, this study is to conduct research on analyzing trip characteristics of transportation vulnerable and establish bus route selection measures for low-floor bus. The result from the survey in Jeollabuk-do Province reveals that the trip purpose of transportation vulnerable is mainly for welfare and medical service, which was made less than 6 times a week. Futhermore, 37.6 percent of transportation vulnerable use buses, thus, it is essential to improve its service quality for enhancing user's convenience and safety. In that transportation vulnerable O-D needs to be established and forecasts future demand for selecting optimal bus route. According to the estimation, route passing through densely populated areas with transportation vulnerable should take the first priority, city circular and other route would be next. Moreover, it is economically efficient that areas populated more than 200,000 with fixed route and less than 200,000 with limited route responsive to demands would be feasible plans. This study will have greater an impact on transportation planning and further research on transportation vulnerable.

Development of Estimation Models for Parking Units -Focused on Gwangju Metropolitan City Condominium Apartments- (주차원단위 산정 모형 개발에 관한 연구 -광주광역시 공동 주택 아파트를 대상으로-)

  • Kwon, Sung-Dae;Ko, Dong-Bong;Park, Je-Jin;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.549-559
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    • 2014
  • The rapid expansion of cities led to the shortage of housing in urban areas. The government compensated for this shortage through large scale residential developments that increased the housing supply. The supply of condominium apartments remains above 83% of the entire housing supply, and the proportion of apartments are at a steady increase, at about 50%. Due to the increase, illegally parked cars resulting from the shortage of parking spaces within the apartment complex have become increasingly problematic as they block the transit of emergency vehicles, and heighten the tension among neighboring residents in obtaining a parking space. Especially, the future residents are considered to plan the parking based on the estimated demand for parking. However, the parking unit method utilized to estimate the parking demand accounts for the exclusive use of space, which is believed to be far from the parking demands in reality. The reason for this discrepancy is that, as the number of households decrease, and area of exclusive space is expanded, the planned parking increases. On the other hand, when the number of households increase, and the area of exclusive space is reduced, the planned parking decreases, thus methods to recalculate the parking units based on estimated parking demand is an urgent concern. To estimate the parking units based on condominium apartments, this study first examined the existing research literature, and appointed the field of investigation to collect the necessary data. In addition, field study data and surveys collected and analyzed, in order to identify the problems underlying parking units, and problems regarding the current traffic impact assessment parking unit calculation method were deduced. Through identifying the influential factors on parking demand estimates, and performing a factorial analysis based on the collected data, the variables were selected in relation to the parking demand estimates, to develop the parking unit estimate model. Finally, through comparing and verifying the existing traffic impact assessment parking unit estimate against the newly developed model using collected data, a far more realistic parking unite estimate was suggested, reflecting the characteristics of the residents. The parking unit estimate model developed in this study is anticipated to serve as the guidelines for future parking lot legislature, as wel as the basis to provide a more realistic estimate of parking demands based on the resident characteristics of an apartment complex.

An Investigation of Rider Behavior to Transfer Seoul Metropolitan Transit Using Public Transport Card Data (교통카드 데이터를 이용한 수도권 광역급행철도 환승행태에 관한 연구)

  • Gun ki Jung;Dong min Lee;Sun hoon Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.146-164
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the Korean government promoted the construction of metropolitan express subway to connect major transportation hub in the metropolitan area within 30 minutes. Most stations of the metropolitan express subway are connected to existing subway stations, so the importance of transfer increased. Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of transfer penalty on route choice, there are few studies on the transfer behavior of the metropolitan express subway. Therefore, in this study, a transfer behavior analysis was conducted on the Shinbundang Line, a representative metropolitan express subway. To analyze the transfer behavior according to the degree of traffic congestion and the presence of fare payment, route choice models were made using transport card data divided according to week, time, and user characteristics. As a result of the analysis, users of the metropolitan express subway had greater disutility to the transfer waiting time compared to the transfer moving time. Furthermore, especially during the peak time, EIVM(Equivalent in-vehicle minutes) of the transfer waiting time was 3.51. In this study, EIVM for metropolitan express subway users were analyzed to be 2.6 minutes, which is significantly lower than the results of previous studies on subways. This suggests that there is a difference in the transfer penalty between subways and metropolitan express subway, and that it is necessary to apply the transfer penalty between subways and express subway differently when forecasting subway traffic demand.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.89-108
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    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.