• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.171-176
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• 2007

To give a guarantee a consistently high level of quality and reliability of Telematics traffic service, traffic flow forecasting is very important issue. In this paper, we proposed an adaptable integrated prediction model to predict the traffic flow in the future. Our model combines two methods, short-term prediction model and long-term prediction model with different combining coefficients to reflect current traffic condition. Short-term model uses the Kalman filtering technique to predict the future traffic conditions. And long-term model processes accumulated speed patterns which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classifying the same day and the same time interval. Combining two models makes it possible to predict future traffic flow with higher accuracy over a longer time range. Many experiments showed our algorithm gives a better precise prediction than only an accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.20-29
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• 2022

This study intends to present a traffic node-based and link-based accident prediction models using XGBoost which is very excellent in performance among machine learning models, and to develop those models with sustainability and scalability. Also, we intend to present those models which predict the number of annual traffic accidents based on road types, weather conditions, and traffic information using XGBoost. To this end, data sets were constructed by collecting and preprocessing traffic accident information, road information, weather information, and traffic information. The SHAP method was used to identify the variables affecting the number of traffic accidents. The five main variables of the traffic node-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of entering lanes and connected links, and slow speed. Otherwise, those of the traffic link-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of lanes, road length, and slow speed. As the evaluation results of those models, the RMSE values of those models were each 0.2035 and 0.2107. In this study, only data from Sejong City were used to our models, but ours can be applied to all regions where traffic nodes and links are constructed. Therefore, our prediction models can be extended to a wider range.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.366-375
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• 2020

The network traffic prediction of a smart substation is key in strengthening its system security protection. To improve the performance of its traffic prediction, in this paper, we propose an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA), then introduce the IGSA into a wavelet neural network (WNN), iteratively optimize the initial connection weighting, scalability factor, and shift factor, and establish a smart substation network traffic prediction model based on the IGSA-WNN. A comparative analysis of the experimental results shows that the performance of the IGSA-WNN-based prediction model further improves the convergence velocity and prediction accuracy, and that the proposed model solves the deficiency issues of the original WNN, such as slow convergence velocity and ease of falling into a locally optimal solution; thus, it is a better smart substation network traffic prediction model.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.589-594
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• 2015

In reflection of road expansion and increasing use rates, interest has blossomed in predicting driving environment. In addition, a gigantic scale of big data is applied to almost every area around the world. Recently, technology development is being promoted in the area of road traffic particularly for traffic information service and analysis system in utilization of big data. This study examines actual cases of road management systems and road information analysis technologies, home and abroad. Based on the result, the limitations of existing technologies and road management systems are analyzed. In this study, a development direction and expected effort of the prediction of road information are presented. This study also examines regression analysis about relationship between guide name and traffic volume. According to the development of driving environment prediction platform, it will be possible to serve more reliable road information and also it will make safe and smart road infrastructures.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.841-854
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• 2020

The paper explains the method to process, analyze and predict traffic patterns in Los Angeles county using Big Data and Machine Learning. The dataset is used from a popular navigating platform in the USA, which tracks information on the road using connected users' devices and also collects reports shared by the users through the app. The dataset mainly consists of information about traffic jams and traffic incidents reported by users, such as road closure, hazards, accidents. The major contribution of this paper is to give a clear view of how the large-scale road traffic data can be stored and processed using the Big Data system - Hadoop and its ecosystem (Hive). In addition, analysis is explained with the help of visuals using Business Intelligence and prediction with classification machine learning model on the sampled traffic data is presented using Azure ML. The process of modeling, as well as results, are interpreted using metrics: accuracy, precision and recall.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.127-134
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• 2013

While there are many services that can check current traffic condition and application program such as bus arrival alarm are developed, since it only provide simple alarm and check level of information, it is still insufficient in many senses. Therefore, the program that try to develop in this study is the system that predict arrival time to destination and inform the bus passengers by applying real time traffic information. The system developed related to this study is still very inadequate. In the system developed in this thesis, when the user input the current bus number and destination using smart-phone, relevant server acquire the bus route information from bus information DB, and analyze real time traffic information based on the information from traffic information DB, and inform customer of expected arrival time to destination. In this thesis, traffic congestion can be eased off and regular operation of public transportation can be improved with reliable destination arrival alarm. Also, it is considered that pattern of bus users can be analyzed by using these information, and analyzing average transport speed and time of public transportation, travel time depending on various situation can give a boost to study related to transportation information and its development.

• IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.281-291
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• 2017

Nowadays, as traffic jams are a daily elementary problem in both developed and developing countries, systems to monitor, predict, and detect traffic conditions are playing an important role in research fields. Comparing them, researchers have been trying to solve problems by applying many kinds of technologies, especially roadside sensors, which still have some issues, and for that reason, any one particular method by itself could not generate sufficient traffic prediction results. However, these sensors have some issues that are not useful for research. Therefore, it may not be best to use them as stand-alone methods for a traffic prediction system. On that note, this paper mainly focuses on predicting traffic conditions based on a hybrid prediction approach, which stands on accuracy comparison of three prediction models: multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. This is aimed at selecting the most suitable approach by means of integrating proficiencies from these approaches. It was also experimentally confirmed, with test cases and simulations that showed the performance of this hybrid method is more effective than individual methods.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.108-114
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• 2012

Traffic Accident Merging Index(TAMI) is developed for TMACS(Traffic Safety Information Management Complex System). TAMI is calculated by combining 'Severity Index' and 'Frequency'. This paper suggest the accurate TAMI prediction model by time series forecasting. Preventing the traffic accident by accurately predicting it in advance can greatly improve road traffic safety. Searches the model which minimizes the error of 230 local self-governing groups. TAMI of 2007~2009 years data predicts TAMI of 2010. And TAMI of 2010 compares an actual index and a prediction index. And the error is minimized the constant where selects. Exponential Smoothing model was selected. And smoothing constant was decided with 0.59. TAMI Forecasting model provides traffic next year safety information of the local government.

• IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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• 제5권6호
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• pp.430-439
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• 2016

Estimation and analysis of traffic jams plays a vital role in an intelligent transportation system and advances safety in the transportation system as well as mobility and optimization of environmental impact. For these reasons, many researchers currently mainly focus on the brilliant machine learning-based prediction approaches for traffic prediction systems. This paper primarily addresses the analysis and comparison of prediction accuracy between two machine learning algorithms: Naïve Bayes and K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN). Based on the fact that optimized estimation accuracy of these methods mainly depends on a large amount of recounted data and that they require much time to compute the same function heuristically for each action, we propose an approach that applies multi-threading to these heuristic methods. It is obvious that the greater the amount of historical data, the more processing time is necessary. For a real-time system, operational response time is vital, and the proposed system also focuses on the time complexity cost as well as computational complexity. It is experimentally confirmed that K-NN does much better than Naïve Bayes, not only in prediction accuracy but also in processing time. Multi-threading-based K-NN could compute four times faster than classical K-NN, whereas multi-threading-based Naïve Bayes could process only twice as fast as classical Bayes.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.951-969
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• 2017

In this paper, we newly propose a traffic information service model that collects traffic information sensed by an individual vehicle in real time by using a smart device, and which enables drivers to share traffic information on all roads in real time using an application installed on a smart device. In particular, when the driver requests traffic information for a specific area, the proposed driver-personalized service model provides him/her with traffic information on the driving directions in advance by predicting the driving directions of the vehicle based on the learning of the driving records of each driver. To do this, we propose a traffic information management model to process and manage in real time a large amount of online-generated traffic information and traffic information requests generated by each vehicle. We also propose a road node-based indexing technique to efficiently store and manage location-based traffic information provided by each vehicle. Finally, we propose a driving learning and prediction model based on the hidden Markov model to predict the driving directions of each driver based on the driver's driving records. We analyze the traffic information processing performance of the proposed model and the accuracy of the driving prediction model using traffic information collected from actual driving vehicles for the entire area of Seoul, as well as driving records and experimental data.