• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.4887-4907
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• 2017

Accurate traffic flow forecasting is critical to the development and implementation of city intelligent transportation systems. Therefore, it is one of the most important components in the research of urban traffic scheduling. However, traffic flow forecasting involves a rather complex nonlinear data pattern, particularly during workday peak periods, and a lot of research has shown that traffic flow data reveals a seasonal trend. This paper proposes a new traffic flow forecasting model that combines seasonal relevance vector regression with the hybrid chaotic simulated annealing method (SRVRCSA). Additionally, a numerical example of traffic flow data from The Transportation Data Research Laboratory is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SRVRCSA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), the double seasonal Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (DSHWES), and the relevance vector regression with hybrid Chaotic Simulated Annealing method (RVRCSA) models. The forecasting performance of RVRCSA with different kernel functions is also studied.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.47-57
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study aims to examine the differences between the existing traffic demand forecasting method and the traffic demand forecasting method considering future regional development plans and new road construction and expansion plans using a four-step traffic demand forecast for a more objective and sophisticated national highway maintenance. This study ultimately aims to present future pavement deterioration and budget forecasting planning based on the examination. METHODS : This study used the latest data offered by the Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) as the basic data for demand forecast. The analysis scope was set using the Daejeon Metropolitan City's O/D and network data. This study used a traffic demand program called TransCad, and performed a traffic assignment by vehicle type through the application of a user equilibrium-based multi-class assignment technique. This study forecasted future traffic demand by verifying whether or not a realistic traffic pattern was expressed similarly by undertaking a calibration process. This study performed a life cycle cost analysis based on traffic using the forecasted future demand or existing past pattern, or by assuming the constant traffic demand. The maintenance criteria were decided according to equivalent single axle loads (ESAL). The maintenance period in the concerned section was calculated in this study. This study also computed the maintenance costs using a construction method by applying the maintenance criteria considering the ESAL. The road user costs were calculated by using the user cost calculation logic applied to the Korean Pavement Management System, which is the existing study outcome. RESULTS : This study ascertained that the increase and decrease of traffic occurred in the concerned section according to the future development plans. Furthermore, there were differences from demand forecasting that did not consider the development plans. Realistic and accurate demand forecasting supported an optimized decision making that efficiently assigns maintenance costs, and can be used as very important basic information for maintenance decision making. CONCLUSIONS : Therefore, decision making for a more efficient and sophisticated road management than the method assuming future traffic can be expected to be the same as the existing pattern or steady traffic demand. The reflection of a reliable forecasting of the future traffic demand to life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) can be a very vital factor because many studies are generally performed without considering the future traffic demand or with an analysis through setting a scenario upon LCCA within a pavement management system.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.103-122
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• 1992

The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan. In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model. The results of this research are as followings. 1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea. 2. A nonliner regression model ($R^2$=0.9432) and a Logistic curve model are appeared to be th gest forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, and a Logistic curve model shows th most significance in predicting the accident deaths and injuries. 3. The forecasting figures of the traffic accidents in pusan are as followings: . In 1993, 31, 180 accidents are predicted to happen, and 430 persons are predicted to be deaths and 29, 680 persons are predicated to be injuries. . In 1994, 33, 710 accidents are predicted to happen, and 431.persons are predicted to be deat! and 30, 510 persons are predicted to be injuried. Therefore, preventive measures against traffic accidents are certainly required.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.108-114
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• 2012

Traffic Accident Merging Index(TAMI) is developed for TMACS(Traffic Safety Information Management Complex System). TAMI is calculated by combining 'Severity Index' and 'Frequency'. This paper suggest the accurate TAMI prediction model by time series forecasting. Preventing the traffic accident by accurately predicting it in advance can greatly improve road traffic safety. Searches the model which minimizes the error of 230 local self-governing groups. TAMI of 2007~2009 years data predicts TAMI of 2010. And TAMI of 2010 compares an actual index and a prediction index. And the error is minimized the constant where selects. Exponential Smoothing model was selected. And smoothing constant was decided with 0.59. TAMI Forecasting model provides traffic next year safety information of the local government.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.1177-1190
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• 2009

도로의 성능을 측정는데 있어서, 주행속도는 가장 중요한 정보가 된다. 또한 도로 교통의 정보를 제공하는데 있어서 현 시점의 교통정보와 더불어 향후 예측되는 교통정보를 함께 제공하는 것은 보다 정확한 예측 시간과 구간을 제공하기 위한 차별화된 기능이라 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 그 동안 축적된 도로 구간별 속도 자료를 이용하여 속도 패턴을 다양하게 분석하고 퓨리에 변환 및 삼각함수를 설명변수로 하는 시계열 회귀모형을 이용한 예측모형을 개발하여 구간별 및 시간대별 평균 속도를 예측하였다. 이와 더불어 보다 정확한 예측을 위하여 결측치에 대한 대체 방법 및 특이치 처리 방법을 함께 고려하였고 방대한 데이터에 대한 효율적인 분석을 위하여 유사 속도 구간에 대한 그룹핑(grouping) 방법도 제안하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2018

고속도로 교통류 제어는 기존의 Reactive 방식(실시간 대응)에서 Proactive 방식(사전 대응)으로 발전하고 있다. 첨단 고속도로 교통류 제어의 핵심 입력자료 중 하나는 여러 시간대에 걸치는 장래 교통량 상태이다. 다중 시간대 교통량 예측을 위해서는 장래 상태의 불확실성을 극복해야 한다. 이는 예측 시간대의 확장에 따라 장래 상태의 불확실성은 증가하기 때문이다. 따라서 다중 시간대 교통량 예측을 위해서는 장래 상태의 불확실성을 효과적으로 극복할 수 있는 실행 가능한 방안이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 대용량 이력자료에 내재된 교통류 상태의 시간적 진화 행태를 이용하여 장래 상태의 불확실성을 효과적으로 극복함으로써 다중 시간대 장래 교통량 상태를 예측하는 모형을 제시하도록 한다. 개발 모형은 현행 교통량의 상태 진화를 기반으로 대용량 자료에 내재된 과거 상태를 추출하고, 이를 이용하여 장래 상태를 예측한다. 추가로, 개발된 모형은 실제 적용을 고려하여 자료관리시스템에 적합하도록 설계되었다. 적용결과, 개발모형은 다중 시간대에 걸치는 불확실성을 효과적으로 극복함으로써 우수한 예측력을 보였으며, 첨단자료관리시스템에 실제 적용이 가능하다고 판단된다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.73-88
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• 1990

This study aims to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using the data, which are based on the past accidents in Korea. The regression analysis was used in conjuction with the variables of the traffic accidents and social behaviours. The objectives of this study are as follows; 1. The number of behicles has given a strong affect to increase the traffic accidents in Korea since a factor of vehicles has shown 86% over of total accidents. 2. The forecasting model regarding the traffic accidents, deaths and injuries, which was formulated for this study, proved to be useful in light of the results of the regression diagnostics. 3. It is expected that the traffic accidents in Korea in 1991 may take place as follows on condition that the traffic environment would worsen ; 274,000 cases of accidents with 13,600 deaths and 367,000 injuries, in 1994, 451,000 cases with 24,900 deaths and 71,500 injuries respectively.

• 도시과학
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.45-54
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to find the factors that reduce prediction error in traffic volume using highway traffic volume data. The ARIMA model was used to predict the day, and it was confirmed that weekday and weekly characteristics were distinguished by prediction error. The forecasting results showed that weekday characteristics were prominent on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, and forecast errors including MAPE and MAE on Sunday were about 15% points and about 10 points higher than weekday characteristics. Also, on Friday, the forecast error was high on weekdays, similar to Sunday's forecast error, unlike Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, which had weekday characteristics. Therefore, when forecasting the time series belonging to Friday, it should be regarded as a weekly characteristic having characteristics similar to weekend rather than considering as weekday.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.30-49
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 토지이용에 기반을 두는 새로운 교통사고 예측모형을 개발하였다. 다양한 지역의 특성을 반영할 수 있는 변수에 대한 시장분할 및 추가변수 도입을 토대로 Data Mining 기법의 하나인 의사나무결정법(Classification and Regression Tree)을 활용하여 새로운 유형별 교통사고 예측모형을 개발하였다. 분석결과를 살펴보면 주민등록인구수, 통근 등 활동변수와 활동의 대상이 되는 도로규모, 유발시설 등이 교통사고를 설명하는 변수로 도출되었다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.1235-1243
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• 2015

최근 들어 ICT 분야의 발달에 따라 데이터 사용량의 급격한 증가로 인터넷 트래픽 사용량 예측은 중요성은 강조되고 있다. 이러한 예측치를 적절한 트래픽 관리와 제어를 위한 계획 수립에 도움을 준다. 본 논문은, 5분 단위의 인터넷 트래픽 자료를 이용하여 결합 예측 모형을 제안하고자 한다. 이에 대하여 시계열의 대표적인 3개 모형인 Seasonal ARIMA, Fractional ARIMA(FARIMA), Taylor의 수정된 Holt-Winters 모형을 적용하였다. 모형 간 결합 예측 방법으로 예측치 간의 SA(Simple Average) 결합 예측 방법과 OLS(Ordinary Least Square)를 이용한 결합방법, ERLS(Equality Restricted Least Squares)를 이용한 결합 예측 방법, Armstrong(2001)이 제안한 MSE 기반 결합 예측 방법을 사용한다. 이에 따른 결과로서 3시간에서의 예측은 Seasonal ARIMA가 선택된 반면, 6시간 이후 예측에서는 결합 예측 방법이 좋은 예측 성능을 보여준다.