• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.657-664
• /
• 2020

We investigate the impact of roads and highways within the provinces on the regional trade of China using the augmented Gravity Model and theory of modeling trade. We take a panel data covering 31 provinces of China over 20 years period (1998-2017) for the estimations. We apply ARMA-OLS model, fixed and random effects, and robust findings by Hausman test. The results imply that road and highway lengths within the provinces have a significantly positive impact on the value of the province-wise exports. The positive impact is due to the fact the increased coverage of roads and highways increase accessibility to resources and mobility of goods and services within the regions. Moreover, employment in the transportation sector, per capita GDP and population of the provinces also illustrate positive and significant influence on regional exports and trade. The impact of China's WTO accession on regional exports has been positive, while the financial crisis has had a negative impact. The year dummies show that, in the years following the financial crisis, China was able to regress from the external shock as trade within the provinces increased. The increase in exports after financial crisis is mainly due to the government policies and support to every province.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.157-172
• /
• 2020

This study attempts to analyze trade flows between Vietnam and China in order to understand the mutual influence of bilateral trade relations. China is a country with the world's leading economic potential. China and Vietnam are neighboring countries sharing a border of 1,281 km. Trade relations between the two countries are a necessity and, with a right policy, are beneficial to both. Vietnam has a trade deficit with China. This situation is exacerbated by the continuing rise in the gap. Vietnam trade deficit from China was USD12.5 billion in 2010, increasing to USD24 billion in 2018. Data are extracted from the 2015 national input-output tables of Vietnam and China as well as Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey statistics. The research identified 36 sectors of bilateral input-output trade between Vietnam and China. A bilateral output-input model is applied to analyze how final demand and use of input in the production of this country induces output and value added of the other country. The results show that China benefits more from Vietnam's production and consumption than Vietnam does. Vietnam's inter-sector structure does not stimulate domestic production due to the absence of supporting products as inputs in the production process.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.323-331
• /
• 2020

The study aims to assess the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade (export and import) on Vietnam's economic growth for the 2000-2018 period. Secondary data is taken from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. Ordinary least-square method is used in analyzing the impact of FDI, export and import on economic growth of Vietnam. Empirical test results show that FDI and international trade are related to Vietnam's economic growth. However, each economic variable has a different impact. FDI has a positive and statistically significant influence on economic growth of Vietnam. Export also has positive and statistically significant impact to the economic growth, while import has a negative but not statistically significant effect. The result is useful for the policy makers of Vietnam on foreign economic relations. In order to improve the effect of FDI and international trade on growth of the economy, the government of Vietnam should: (1) continue applying preferential policies to attract FDI; (2) select foreign investors aiming to quality, efficiency, high technology and environmental protection; (3) continue pursuing export-oriented policy; (4) enhance the added value of exported goods and control the type of imported goods; (5) further liberalize trade through signing and implementation of international trade commitments.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.10
• /
• pp.49-59
• /
• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.171-180
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of credit rationing on the amount of trade credit used by farmers in Vietnam. This study employs a survey data collected through direct interviews with heads of 1,065 rice households randomly selected out of provinces and city in the Mekong River Delta (MRD). In each province or city, the village with the largest area of land devoted to rice production from the district with the largest area of land devoted to rice production was picked up for survey. In each village, 200 rice farmers were randomly chosen for interview. Based on a probit model and a semi-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) estimator while controlling socio-demographic traits of rice farmers, the estimated results show that non-credit rationed farmers use less trade credit to finance production compared to their credit rationed counterparts. Moreover, the amount of trade credit used by farmers decreases as the degree of credit rationing drops. This paper provides evidence of the substitutive relationship between bank credit and trade credit. It also implicitly suggests that banks can drive trade creditors out of the market if they manage to solve the problem of information asymmetry and transaction cost.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.1-29
• /
• 2013

This paper examines the effect of trade liberalization or globalization, more broadly, on plants' growth as well as on "bi-polarization". To do so, we reviewed the possible theoretical mechanisms put forward by recent heterogeneous firm trade theories, and provided available micro-evidence from existing empirical studies on Korean manufacturing sector. Above all, the empirical evidence provided in this paper strongly suggests that globalization promoted growth of Korean manufacturing plants. Specifically, evidence suggests that exporting not only increases within-plant productivity but also promotes introduction of new products and dropping of old products. However, the empirical evidence also suggest that globalization has some downsides: widening productivity differences across plants and rising wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. Specifically, trade liberalization widens the initial productivity differences among plants through learning from export market participation as well as through interactions between exporting and R&D, both of which increase plants' productivity. We also show that there is only a small group of large and productive "superstar" plants engaged in both R&D and exporting activity, which can fully utilize the potential benefits from globalization. Finally, we also show evidence that trade liberalization interacts with innovation to increase the skilled-unskilled wage inequality.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.46 no.1
• /
• pp.169-187
• /
• 2021

This paper analyzes the feasibility of using machine learning and deep learning methods to forecast the income and employment using the strategic industries as well as investment, export, and exchange rates. The decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, and deep learning models were used to forecast the income and employment in Busan. The following were the main findings of the comparison of their predictive abilities. First, the decision tree models predict the income and employment well. The forecasting values for the income and employment appeared somewhat differently according to the depth of decision trees and several conditions of strategic industries as well as investment, export, and exchange rates. Second, since the artificial neural network models show that the coefficients are somewhat low and RMSE are somewhat high, these models are not good forecasting the income and employment. Third, the support vector machine models show the high predictive power with the high coefficients of determination and low RMSE. Fourth, the deep neural network models show the higher predictive power with appropriate epochs and batch sizes. Thus, since the machine learning and deep learning models can predict the employment well, we need to adopt the machine learning and deep learning models to forecast the income and employment.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.57
• /
• pp.243-282
• /
• 2013

This study aims to develop the research model about the factors that have impact on uTradeHub users' acceptance and resistance to innovation. The followings show the research hypotheses and the results of test. i) The result of H1 empirical analysis confirmed that relative advantage and task adaptedness of e-Trade have more impact on acceptance of innovation than on resistance to it. And also perceived risk and complicity of e-Trade have more impact on resistance of innovation than on acceptance to it. ii) The result of H2 analysis confirmed that the characteristics of foreign trading companies (support by CEO and IT infra maturity) has more impact on acceptance of innovation than on resistance to it. iii) The result of H3 analysis confirmed that characteristics of uTradeHub user' resistance has more impact on resistance of innovation than on acceptance to it. And also, it was confirmed that acceptance of innovation has more impact on the diffusion of e-Trade than resistance to innovation. iv) The result of H4 analysis confirmed that the difference of the degree and factors that has impact on the user's resistance and acceptance by adoption stage of e-Trade. This study has significance in that it arranges the concept and stages of e-Trade systematically and, unlike other studies, it goes beyond the acceptance and diffusion of e-Trade to the inclusion of resistance together in the model.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.467-492
• /
• 2008

This paper analyzes the specific product-basis trade structure between Busan and Japan using the recent 2000-2007 trade statistical data. Several specific product-basis trade structure tests such as intra-industry trade index and market comparative advantage index show that there are considerable differences in intra-industry trade structure between Busan and Japan. Furthermore, this paper found that Busan has high quality vertical intra-industry trade and horizontal intra-industry trade as well as low quality vertical intra-industry trade in trading with Japan. While Busan has the market comparative disadvantage in automobile-part products in Japan. This paper also examines the contribution to trade balance of Busan's exports and the movement of Busan's comparative advantage patterns in Japan. The comparative advantage appears to have overall stability and convergence properties using symmetric indices.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.47-67
• /
• 2018

This study analyzed whether the poverty level among Asian countries has converged, by using data for the 'globalization period'. In particular, we analyzed the impact of trade on convergence by quantitative analysis using two indices; the head count ratio (H) and the human development index (HDI). The σ-convergence measurement and β-convergence measurement method, commonly used in the field of economic growth, are used for the analysis method. Results show that poverty rates have declined on average during the analysis period and there has been an increase in HDI. It seems that there has been improvement regarding poverty. However, this trend is only an indication of the average trend of Asian countries as a whole. As for the convergence between countries, which is the focus of this study, the HDI index shows the converges among countries while the H index does not show significant convergence among countries. It is also difficult to determine that trade has a statistically significant impact on the poverty rate convergence. However, in the case of HDI convergence, trade has contributed to increasing the convergence rates. This results might show that globalization does not guarantee the convergence among countries, and thus, we need to have additional policy in order to reduce the poverty.