• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.109-126
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• 2022

Purpose - Based on the relevant panel data for China and 13 of the RCEP countries from 2008-2019, this paper conducts an in-depth study on the impact of trade facilitation levels on China's cross-border e-commerce exports using the expanded trade gravity model. Design/methodology - This study constructs a trade facilitation index (TFI) system, and uses the principal component analysis method to measure the trade facilitation levels of RCEP countries in 2008-2019. This result is then introduced into the extended gravity model to explore the effect of trade facilitation in RCEP countries on China's cross-border e-commerce export. Findings - It is found that the overall trade facilitation level has a significant effect on China's cross-border e-commerce exports. Among the primary indicators, with the exception of infrastructure, the other four indicators demonstrate a significant impact. The findings show that China should strengthen its cooperation with RCEP countries in trade facilitation and cross-border e-commerce to better achieve complementary regional economic development. Originality/value - This paper has three contributions: first, this paper builds a TFI system that includes five primary indicators based on the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce. Second, we explore the impact of trade facilitation levels of RCEP countries on China's cross-border e-commerce exports, which helps to fill the gap in existing studies of the impact of cross-border e-commerce exports. Third, this paper further analyzes the impact of five primary indicators on cross-border e-commerce exports; this thus provides more targeted measures to improve trade facilitation levels.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.117-124
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• 2020

This study empirically analyzed air transport trade patterns using data for 30 years between Korea and its trading partners in order to identify specific factors that determine the size of Korea's air transport trade. Independent variables were GDP per capita, capital distance between countries, country area data and number of airports. In addition, it reflected whether it is a landlocked country and whether it has joined the OECD, APEC and ASEAN+3. According to the results of the analysis, it was found that the air cargo trade pattern in Korea is proportional to GDP per capita, and the scale increases as the distance is closer. In addition, the national area and the airport capital acted as a factor in increasing air transport trade. However, whether a country is a landlocked country did not show significant results in terms of trade, exports, and imports. The OECD, APEC, and ASEAN+3 variables were found to generally increase air transport trade.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.68-82
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• 2020

Purpose - This study investigates the impact of inland port development in China on the promotion of bilateral trade flows between China and South Korea. Design/methodology - The probable association between the establishment of inland ports and Sino-Korea trade was estimated using gravity models. In this regards, two sets of data were collected. The first dataset consists of the baseline variables of a gravity model, while the second one includes variables of logistics infrastructure development. The indicators of logistics infrastructure development include inland ports, the amount of government expenditure on transport infrastructure, the lengths of roads and railways, the number of trucks and the number of logistics industry workforce. Findings - The results show that inland port development has a positive impact on facilitating bilateral trade between China and South Korea. However, the positive association holds only for Chinese regions with a large trade volume and a proximity to seaports. In other regions, the impact of inland ports is not statistically significant. Originality/value - To the best knowledge of the authors, this study is the first attempt to explore the economic impact of inland ports in China. In addition, the findings in this paper provide both policy and managerial implications for the future development of inland ports, such as the strategic location of inland ports and integrated intermodal operations.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.66-86
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper describes the use of trade preferences under the EU-Korea free trade agreement (FTA) and empirically examines potential reasons for the less than full use, using data on daily EU imports from Korea at the product level. Design/methodology - We employ a probit model to analyse the relationship between the use of trade preferences on the one hand and variables such as potential duty savings, rules of origin and the characteristics of the good traded (intermediate input or final product) on the other. Findings - The paper finds that EU imports from Korea make good use of trade preferences with an overall preference utilisation rate of close to 90% in 2016, which is up from about 80% in 2012. It further shows that potential duty savings influence preference utilisation positively and that more than one quarter of the observations in our sample made use of preferences under EU-Korea FTA in 2012, despite duty savings standing at €10 or less. Originality/value - The finding that a non-negligible share of observations use preferences even when the duty savings are low has not yet figured in the literature. We further show how preference utilisation rates differ by importing EU Member State and by section of the Harmonised System and estimate the marginal impact of an increase in potential duty savings on the preference utilisation rate by broad product group, which is novel.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.373-389
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• 2016

This study mainly investigates the port SOC's impact on trade volume. In order to investigate the relationships between port SOC and trade volume, we did the empirical analysis using panel data regression and fixed effects model. The total period of 97 years and 1,082 ports' information were applied to panel data and regression model. According to the results, the coefficients of development of container berth, development of bulk berth, maintenance of port, the jetty facilities like breakwater have positive(+) impact on the dependent variable, the trade volume. Especially, the jetty facilities show a strongly positive impact on trade volume. On the other hand, the development of new port and navigation facilities like lighthouse have a negative(-) impact. In examining Hausman test and LR test, the fixed effect model is statistically more appropriate than the random effect model for this study.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.247-267
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• 2022

Since the Korea-Vietnam FTA was signed in 2015, trade between the two countries has increased rapidly, accounting for 6.8% of Vietnam's exports and 17.9% of its imports in 2020. The two countries show differences in import and export items. Vietnam has a high export ratio of agri-food products or products with the low-middle level of technology, while Korea has a high export ratio of products with the upper-middle level. The purpose of this study is to present implications by analyzing changes in trade competitiveness between Vietnam and Korea by technology level (2002-2020). For this purpose, statistics from UN Comtrade were used, and methodologies such as market share, Export Market Share (EMS), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), Intra-Industrial Trade Index (IIT), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and BCG Matrix were used. The results of the study are as follows. First, when looking at Vietnam's trade structure with South Korea by technology level, it was analyzed that the trade deficit widened as it showed a competitive disadvantage in high-tech, ICT, middle- and low-level technology items, excluding low-end technology items. Second, in terms of market share, the market share of Vietnamese products in the Korean market is continuously increasing, while the Korean market share in Vietnam is gradually decreasing from 2017. Third, Vietnam's export competitiveness to Korea by technology level shows that low-level technologies are competitive, but they are inferior in competitiveness in all other technology level, and especially in areas with high technology level, the level of inferiority is high. In conclusion, the trade relationship between Vietnam and Korea has maintained a mutually complementary rather than competitive relationship, which is expected to continue in the future.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-59
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• 2020

China's increasing trade volume and continuous integration with global financial markets have strengthened the influences of the renminbi on the exchange rates of different currencies. Previous studies find closer co-movements between the renminbi and other currencies. This paper is novel to investigate the underlying determinants of the co-movement further, using panel data of over thirty-four countries. Our results show that stronger bilateral trade and financial linkages with China have a positive association with the currency co-movement. Moreover, countries with greater flexibility in exchange rate regimes show stronger co-movements. These findings imply that growing co-movements are the consequence of autonomous decisions at the market rather than that of management by governments or central banks.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.281-299
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• 2021

This paper analyzes the feasibility of using machine learning methods to forecast the employment. The machine learning methods, such as decision tree, artificial neural network, and ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree were used to forecast the employment in Busan regional economy. The following were the main findings of the comparison of their predictive abilities. First, the forecasting power of machine learning methods can predict the employment well. Second, the forecasting values for the employment by decision tree models appeared somewhat differently according to the depth of decision trees. Third, the predictive power of artificial neural network model, however, does not show the high predictive power. Fourth, the ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree model show the higher predictive power. Thus, since the machine learning method can accurately predict the employment, we need to improve the accuracy of forecasting employment with the use of machine learning methods.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.83-92
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• 2022

Due to the uncertainty in the order of the integrated model, the SARIMA-LSTM model, SARIMA-SVR model, LSTM-SARIMA model, and SVR-SARIMA model are constructed respectively to determine the best-combined model for forecasting the China-Russia trade turnover. Meanwhile, the effect of the order of the combined models on the prediction results is analyzed. Using indicators such as MAPE and RMSE, we compare and evaluate the predictive effects of different models. The results show that the SARIMA-LSTM model combines the SARIMA model's short-term forecasting advantage with the LSTM model's long-term forecasting advantage, which has the highest forecast accuracy of all models and can accurately predict the trend of China-Russia trade turnover in the post-epidemic period. Furthermore, the SARIMA - LSTM model has a higher forecast accuracy than the LSTM-ARIMA model. Nevertheless, the SARIMA-SVR model's forecast accuracy is lower than the SVR-SARIMA model's. As a result, the combined models' order has no bearing on the predicting outcomes for the China-Russia trade turnover time series.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.211-228
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• 2020

The purpose of this study aims to analyze the comparative effects of luxury consumption behavior for Chinese consumers. Many research have been conducted in luxury consumption behavior based on perspective of culture, brand, and purchase motives. However, previous studies seem somewhat limited in fully explaining luxury consumption behavior due to less understanding of consumers' psychological trait. In order to fill this gap, this study adopts narcissism (overt narcissism and covert narcissism) to explain consumers' psychological trait. Based on specific psychological trait, consumers would lead to different luxury purchasing behavior depending on purchase motives. Especially, overt narcissism would show high tendency of self-esteem, arrogance, which means that it is closely related to need for uniqueness. Conversely, covert narcissism would show high sensitivity to others, which indicate that it is involved with need for approval. Also, each narcissism would result in different behavior for luxury purchasing based on generation difference (20-30s, vs. 40-50s). The result of this study shows that overt narcissism, covert narcissism, need for uniqueness, need for approval have significant influence on luxury consumption behavior. Especially, overt narcissism has interaction effect with need for uniqueness and young generation (in the 20s, 30s) for luxury purchasing behavior. On the other hand, it was found that covert narcissism has no interaction effect with other variables.