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Decentralized Composting of Garbage in a Small Composter for Dwelling House I. Laboratory Composting of the Household Garbage in a Small Bin (가정용 소형 퇴비화용기에 의한 부엌쓰레기의 분산식 퇴비화 I. 실험실 조건에서 퇴비화 연구)

  • Seo, Jeoung-Yoon;Joo, Woo-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.321-337
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    • 1994
  • The garbage from the dwelling houses was composted in two kinds of small composter in laboratory to investigate the possibility of garbage composting. They were general small composters. One (type 1) was insullated but the other (type 2) was not. Because it was found that type 2 was not available for composting under our meteorological conditions through winter experiment, only type 1 was tested in spring and summer. The experiment was performed for 8 weeks in each season. The seasonal variation of several compounds in compost was evaluated and discussed. The result summarized belows are those taken at the end of the experiment, if the time was not specified. 1) The maximum temperature was $58^{\circ}C$ in spring, $57^{\circ}C$ in summer and $41^{\circ}C$ in winter. This temperature was enough to destroy the pathogen except for winter. 2) The mass was reduced to average 62.5% and the volume reduction was avergae 74%. 3) The density was estimated as 0.7kg/l in spring, 0.8kg/l in summer and 1.1kg/l in winter. 4) The water content was not much changed for composting periods. It had 75.6% in spring and 76.6% in summer and winter. 5) There was a great seasonal difference in pH value. It was reached to pH 6.13 in spring, pH 8.62 in summer and pH 4.75 in winter. 6) The faster organic matter was decomposed, the greater ash content was increased. Cellulose and lignin content were increased, but hemicellulose content was reduced during composting period. 7) Nitrogen contents were in the range of 3.1-5.6% and especially high in summer. After ammonium nitrogen contents were increased at the early stage of composting period, they were decreased. The maximum ammonium nitrogen content was 3,243mg/kg after 2 weeks in winter, 6,053mg/kg after 3 weeks in spring and 30,828mg/kg after 6 weeks in summer. C/N-ratios were not much changed. Nitrification occurred actively in spring and summer. 8) The contents of volatile and higher fatty acids were increased in early stage of composting and reduced after that. The maximum content of total fatty acid was 10.1% after 2 weeks in winter, 5.8% after 2 weeks in spring and 15.7% after 4 weeks in summer. 9) The contents of inorganic compounds were not accumulated as composting was proceeded. They were in the range of 0.9-4.4% $P_2O_5$, 1.6-2.9% $K_2O$, 2.4-4.6% CaO and 0.30-0.80% MgO. 10) CN and heavy metal contents did not show any tendency. They were in the range of 0.11-28.99mg/kg CN, 24-166mg/kg Zn, 5-129mg/kg Cu, 0.8-14.3mg/kg Cd, 7-42mg/kg Pb, ND-30mg/kg Cr and $ND-132.16\;{\mu}g/kg$ Hg.

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Clinical Usefulness of Implanted Fiducial Markers for Hypofractionated Radiotherapy of Prostate Cancer (전립선암의 소분할 방사선치료 시에 위치표지자 삽입의 유용성)

  • Choi, Young-Min;Ahn, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Hyung-Sik;Hur, Won-Joo;Yoon, Jin-Han;Kim, Tae-Hyo;Kim, Soo-Dong;Yun, Seong-Guk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: To assess the usefulness of implanted fiducial markers in the setup of hypofractionated radiotherapy for prostate cancer patients by comparing a fiducial marker matched setup with a pelvic bone match. Materials and Methods: Four prostate cancer patients treated with definitive hypofractionated radiotherapy between September 2009 and August 2010 were enrolled in this study. Three gold fiducial markers were implanted into the prostate and through the rectum under ultrasound guidance around a week before radiotherapy. Glycerin enemas were given prior to each radiotherapy planning CT and every radiotherapy session. Hypofractionated radiotherapy was planned for a total dose of 59.5 Gy in daily 3.5 Gy with using the Novalis system. Orthogonal kV X-rays were taken before radiotherapy. Treatment positions were adjusted according to the results from the fusion of the fiducial markers on digitally reconstructed radiographs of a radiotherapy plan with those on orthogonal kV X-rays. When the difference in the coordinates from the fiducial marker fusion was less than 1 mm, the patient position was approved for radiotherapy. A virtual bone matching was carried out at the fiducial marker matched position, and then a setup difference between the fiducial marker matching and bone matching was evaluated. Results: Three patients received a planned 17-fractionated radiotherapy and the rest underwent 16 fractionations. The setup error of the fiducial marker matching was $0.94{\pm}0.62$ mm (range, 0.09 to 3.01 mm; median, 0.81 mm), and the means of the lateral, craniocaudal, and anteroposterior errors were $0.39{\pm}0.34$ mm, $0.46{\pm}0.34$ mm, and $0.57{\pm}0.59$ mm, respectively. The setup error of the pelvic bony matching was $3.15{\pm}2.03$ mm (range, 0.25 to 8.23 mm; median, 2.95 mm), and the error of craniocaudal direction ($2.29{\pm}1.95$ mm) was significantly larger than those of anteroposterior ($1.73{\pm}1.31$ mm) and lateral directions ($0.45{\pm}0.37$ mm), respectively (p<0.05). Incidences of over 3 mm and 5 mm in setup difference among the fractionations were 1.5% and 0% in the fiducial marker matching, respectively, and 49.3% and 17.9% in the pelvic bone matching, respectively. Conclusion: The more precise setup of hypofractionated radiotherapy for prostate cancer patients is feasible with the implanted fiducial marker matching compared with the pelvic bony matching. Therefore, a less marginal expansion of planning target volume produces less radiation exposure to adjacent normal tissues, which could ultimately make hypofractionated radiotherapy safer.

Steroid Effect on the Brain Protection During OPen Heart Surgery Using Hypothermic Circulatory Arrest in the Rabbit Cardiopulmonary bypass Model (저체온순환정지법을 이용한 개심술시 스테로이드의 뇌보호 효과 - 토끼를 이용한 심폐바이패스 실험모델에서 -)

  • Kim, Won-Gon;Lim, Cheong;Moon, Hyun-Jong;Chun, Eui-Kyung;Chi, Je-Geun;Won, Tae-Hee;Lee, Young-Tak;Chee, Hyun-Keun;Kim, Jun-Woo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.471-478
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    • 1997
  • Introduction: The use of rabbits as a cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) animal model is extremely dif%cult mainly due to technical problems. On the other hand, deep hypothermic circulatory arrest(CA) is used to facilitate surgical repair in a variety of cardiac diseases. Although steroids are generally known to be effective in the treatment of cerebral edema, the protective effects of steroids on the brain during CA are not conclusively established. Objectives of this study are twofold: the establishment of CPB technique in rabbits and the evaluation of preventive effect of steroid on the development of brain edema during CA. Material '||'&'||' Methods: Fifteen New Zealan white rabbits(average body weight 3.5kg) were divided into three experimental groups; control CA group(n=5), CA with Trendelenberg position group(n=5), and CA with Trendelenberg position + steroid(methylprednisolone 30 mglkg) administration group(n=5). After anesthetic induction and tracheostomy, a median sternotomy was performed. An aortic cannula(3.3mm) and a venous ncannula(14 Fr) were inserted, respectively in the ascending aorta and the right atrium. The CPB circuit consisted of a roller pump and a bubble oxygenator. Priming volume of the circuit was approximately 450m1 with 120" 150ml of blood. CPB was initiated at a flow rate of 80~85ml/kg/min, Ten min after the start of CPB, CA was established with duration of 40min at $20^{\circ}C$ of rectal temperature. After CA, CPB was restarted with 20min period of rewarming. Ten min after weaning, the animal was sacrif;cod. One-to-2g portions of the following tissues were rapidly d:ssected and water contents were examined and compared among gr ups: brain, cervical spinal cord, kidney, duodenum, lung, heart, liver, spleen, pancreas. stomach. Statistical significances were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test. Results: CPB with CA was successfully performed in all cases. Flow rate of 60-100 mlfkgfmin was able to be maintained throughout CPB. During CPB, no significant metabolic acidosis was detected and aortic pressure ranged between 35-55 mmHg. After weaning from CPB, all hearts resumed normal beating spontaneously. There were no statistically significant differences in the water contents of tissues including brain among the three experimental groups. Conclusion: These results indicate (1) CPB can be reliably administered in rabbits if proper technique is used, (2) the effect of steroid on the protection of brain edema related to Trendelenburg position during CA is not established within the scope of this experiment.

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Decentralized Composting of Garbage in a Small Composter for Dwelling House;III. Laboratory Composting of the Household Garbase in a Small Bin with Double Layer Walls (가정용 소형 퇴비화용기에 의한 부엌쓰레기의 분산식 퇴비화;III. 실험실조건에서 이중벽 소형 용기에 의한 퇴비화 연구)

  • Seo, Jeoung-Yoon;Joo, Woo-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.232-245
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    • 1995
  • The garbage from the dwelling house was composted in two kinds of small composter in the laboratory, and the possibility of garbage composting was examined. The composters were general small. One (type 3) was constructed with the double layer walls and the other (type 4) was the same as the first except for being insulated. Because it was found that type 3 was not available for composting under our meteorological conditions through the winter experiment, only type 4 was tested in spring and summer. The experiment was performed for 8 weeks in each season. The seasonal variation of several components in the compost was evaluated and discussed. The results summarized below were those obtained at the end of the experiment, if the time was not specified. 1) The maximum temperature was $43^{\circ}C$ in winter, $55^{\circ}C$ in spring and $56^{\circ}C$ in summer. 2) The mass was reduced to an average of 63% and the volume reduction was an average of 78%. 3) The density was estimated as 1.5 kg/l in winter and 0.8 kg/l in spring and summer. 4) The water content was not much changed during the composting periods. It was 79.3% in winter, 75.0% in spring and 70.0% in summer. 5) After pH value increased during the first week, it decreased until the second week and increased again continuously thereafter. It reached pH 6.19 in winter, pH 7.59 in spring and pH 8.69 in summer. 6) The faster the organic matter was decomposed, the greater the ash content increased. The contents of cellulose and lignin increased, but that of hemicellulose decreased during the composting period. 7) Nitrogen contents were in the range of 3.3-6.8% and especially high in summer. After ammonium contents increased at the early stage of the composting period, they decreased. The maximum ammonium-nitrogen content was 2,404mg/kg after 8 weeks in winter, 12,400mg/kg after 3 weeks in spring and 20,718mg/kg after 3 weeks in summer. C/N-ratios decreased with the lapse of composting time, but they were not much changed. Nitrification occurred actively in summer. 8) The contents of volatile and higher fatty acids increased at the early stage of composting and reduced after that. The maximum content of total fatty acid was 9.7% after 6 weeks in winter, 14.8% after 6 weeks in spring and 15.8% after 2 weeks in summer. 9) The contents of inorganic components were not accumulated as composting proceeded. They were in the range of 0.9-4.4% $P_2O_5$, 1.6-2.4% $K_2O$, 2.2-5.4% CaO and 0.30-0.61% MgO. 10) CN and heavy metal contents did not show any tendency. They were in the range of 0.21-14.55mg/kg CN, 11-166mg/kg Zn, 5-65mg/kg Cu, 0.5-10.8mg/kg Cd, 6- 35mg/kg Pb, ND-33 mg/kg Cr and ND-302.04 g/kg Hg.

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Flow Resistance and Modeling Rule of Fishing Nets -1. Analysis of Flow Resistance and Its Examination by Data on Plane Nettings- (그물어구의 유수저항과 근형수칙 -1. 유수저항의 해석 및 평면 그물감의 자료에 의한 검토-)

  • KIM Dae-An
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 1995
  • Assuming that fishing nets are porous structures to suck water into their mouth and then filtrate water out of them, the flow resistance N of nets with wall area S under the velicity v was taken by $R=kSv^2$, and the coefficient k was derived as $$k=c\;Re^{-m}(\frac{S_n}{S_m})n(\frac{S_n}{S})$$ where $R_e$ is the Reynolds' number, $S_m$ the area of net mouth, $S_n$ the total area of net projected to the plane perpendicular to the water flow. Then, the propriety of the above equation and the values of c, m and n were investigated by the experimental results on plane nettings carried out hitherto. The value of c and m were fixed respectively by $240(kg\cdot sec^2/m^4)$ and 0.1 when the representative size on $R_e$ was taken by the ratio k of the volume of bars to the area of meshes, i. e., $$\lambda={\frac{\pi\;d^2}{21\;sin\;2\varphi}$$ where d is the diameter of bars, 21 the mesh size, and 2n the angle between two adjacent bars. The value of n was larger than 1.0 as 1.2 because the wakes occurring at the knots and bars increased the resistance by obstructing the filtration of water through the meshes. In case in which the influence of $R_e$ was negligible, the value of $cR_e\;^{-m}$ became a constant distinguished by the regions of the attack angle $ \theta$ of nettings to the water flow, i. e., 100$(kg\cdot sec^2/m^4)\;in\;45^{\circ}<\theta \leq90^{\circ}\;and\;100(S_m/S)^{0.6}\;(kg\cdot sec^2/m^4)\;in\;0^{\circ}<\theta \leq45^{\circ}$. Thus, the coefficient $k(kg\cdot sec^2/m^4)$ of plane nettings could be obtained by utilizing the above values with $S_m\;and\;S_n$ given respectively by $$S_m=S\;sin\theta$$ and $$S_n=\frac{d}{I}\;\cdot\;\frac{\sqrt{1-cos^2\varphi cos^2\theta}} {sin\varphi\;cos\varphi} \cdot S$$ But, on the occasion of $\theta=0^{\circ}$ k was decided by the roughness of netting surface and so expressed as $$k=9(\frac{d}{I\;cos\varphi})^{0.8}$$ In these results, however, the values of c and m were regarded to be not sufficiently exact because they were obtained from insufficient data and the actual nets had no use for k at $\theta=0^{\circ}$. Therefore, the exact expression of $k(kg\cdotsec^2/m^4)$, for actual nets could De made in the case of no influence of $R_e$ as follows; $$k=100(\frac{S_n}{S_m})^{1.2}\;(\frac{S_m}{S})\;.\;for\;45^{\circ}<\theta \leq90^{\circ}$$, $$k=100(\frac{S_n}{S_m})^{1.2}\;(\frac{S_m}{S})^{1.6}\;.\;for\;0^{\circ}<\theta \leq45^{\circ}$$

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A Study on Developing Customized Bolus using 3D Printers (3D 프린터를 이용한 Customized Bolus 제작에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Sang Min;Yang, Jin Ho;Lee, Seung Hyun;Kim, Jin Uk;Yeom, Du Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : 3D Printers are used to create three-dimensional models based on blueprints. Based on this characteristic, it is feasible to develop a bolus that can minimize the air gap between skin and bolus in radiotherapy. This study aims to compare and analyze air gap and target dose at the branded 1 cm bolus with the developed customized bolus using 3D printers. Materials and Methods : RANDO phantom with a protruded tumor was used to procure images using CT simulator. CT DICOM file was transferred into the STL file, equivalent to 3D printers. Using this, customized bolus molding box (maintaining the 1 cm width) was created by processing 3D printers, and paraffin was melted to develop the customized bolus. The air gap of customized bolus and the branded 1 cm bolus was checked, and the differences in air gap was used to compare $D_{max}$, $D_{min}$, $D_{mean}$, $D_{95%}$ and $V_{95%}$ in treatment plan through Eclipse. Results : Customized bolus production period took about 3 days. The total volume of air gap was average $3.9cm^3$ at the customized bolus. And it was average $29.6cm^3$ at the branded 1 cm bolus. The customized bolus developed by the 3D printer was more useful in minimizing the air gap than the branded 1 cm bolus. In the 6 MV photon, at the customized bolus, $D_{max}$, $D_{min}$, $D_{mean}$, $D_{95%}$, $V_{95%}$ of GTV were 102.8%, 88.1%, 99.1%, 95.0%, 94.4% and the $D_{max}$, $D_{min}$, $D_{mean}$, $D_{95%}$, $V_{95%}$ of branded 1cm bolus were 101.4%, 92.0%, 98.2%, 95.2%, 95.7%, respectively. In the proton, at the customized bolus, $D_{max}$, $D_{min}$, $D_{mean}$, $D_{95%}$, $V_{95%}$ of GTV were 104.1%, 84.0%, 101.2%, 95.1%, 99.8% and the $D_{max}$, $D_{min}$, $D_{mean}$, $D_{95%}$, $V_{95%}$ of branded 1cm bolus were 104.8%, 87.9%, 101.5%, 94.9%, 99.9%, respectively. Thus, in treatment plan, there was no significant difference between the customized bolus and 1 cm bolus. However, the normal tissue nearby the GTV showed relatively lower radiation dose. Conclusion : The customized bolus developed by 3D printers was effective in minimizing the air gap, especially when it is used against the treatment area with irregular surface. However, the air gap between branded bolus and skin was not enough to cause a change in target dose. On the other hand, in the chest wall could confirm that dose decrease for small the air gap. Customized bolus production period took about 3 days and the development cost was quite expensive. Therefore, the commercialization of customized bolus developed by 3D printers requires low-cost 3D printer materials, adequate for the use of bolus.

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Studies on the Effect of Diffusion Process to Decay Resistance of Mine Props (간이처리법(簡易處理法)에 의한 갱목(坑木)의 내부효력(耐腐効力)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Shim, Chong Supp;Shin, Dong So;Jung, Hee Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1976
  • This study has been made to make an observation regarding present status of the coal mine props which is desperately needed for coal production, despite of great shortage of the timber resources in this country, and investigate the effects of diffusion process on the decay resistances of the mine props as applied preservatives of Malenit and chromated zinc chloride. The results are as follows. 1. Present status of the coal mine props Total demand of coal mine props in the year of 1975 was approximately 456 thousand cubic meters. The main species used for mine props are conifer (mainly Pinus densiflora) and hardwood (mainly Quercus). Portions between them are half and half. With non fixed specification, wide varieties of timber in size and form are used. And volume of wood used per ton-of coal production shows also wide range from 0.017 cubic meter to 0.03 cubic meter. 2. Decay resistance test a) The oven dry weight decreased between untreated specimen and treated specimen has not shown any significantly, although it has shown some differences in average values between them. It may be caused by the shorter length of the test. b) The strength of compression test between untreated specimen and treated specimen has also shown the same results as shown in case of weight decrease. Reasons assumed are the same. c) The amounts of the extractives in one percent of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) between untreated and treated specimen have shown the large value in case of untreated specimen than that of treated. 3. The economical benifit between untreated and treated wood when applied in field has seen better in long term base in case of treated wood, although the primary cost of treated wood add a little bit more cost than that of the untreated wood.

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An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.