• Title/Summary/Keyword: Total uncertainty

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GA-LADRC based control for course keeping applied to a mariner class vessel (GA-LADRC를 이용한 Mariner class vessel의 선수각 제어)

  • Jong-Kap AHN
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2023
  • In this study, to control the heading angle of a ship, which is constantly subjected to various internal and external disturbances during the voyage, an LADRC (linear active disturbance rejection control) design that focuses more on improving the disturbance removal performance was proposed. The speed rate of change of the ship's heading angle due to the turn of the rudder angle was selected as a significant factor, and the nonlinear model of the ship's maneuvering equation, including the steering gear, was treated as a total disturbance. It is the similar process with an LADRC design for the first-order transfer function model. At this time, the gains of the controller included in LADRC and the gains of the extended state observer were tuned to RCGAs (real-coded genetic algorithms) to minimize the integral time-weighted absolute error as an evaluation function. The simulation was performed by applying the proposed GA-LADRC controller to the heading angle control of the Mariner class vessel. In particular, it was confirmed that the proposed controller satisfactorily maintains and follows the set course even when the disturbances such as nonlinearity, modelling error, uncertainty and noise of the measurement sensor are considered.

An Effect of Volatility of Crude Oil Price on Asymmetry of Domestic Gasoline Price Adjustment (국제 유가 변동성이 국내 휘발유 가격 비대칭성에 미치는 영향)

  • Nam-Jae Kim;Hyung-Gun Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.351-364
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

Accurate Measurement of Arsenic in Laver by Gravimetric Standard Addition Method Combined with High Resolution Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry

  • Lee, Kyoung-Seok;Kim, Hyeon-Ji;Yim, Yong-Hyeon;Kim, Jeongkwon;Hwang, Euijin
    • Mass Spectrometry Letters
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2014
  • A gravimetric standard addition method combined with internal standard calibration has been successfully developed for the accurate analysis of total arsenic in a laver candidate reference material. A model equation for the gravimetric standard addition approach using an internal standard was derived to determine arsenic content in samples. Handlings of samples, As standard and internal standard were carried out gravimetrically to avoid larger uncertainty and variability involved in the volumetric preparation. Germanium was selected as the internal standard because of its close mass to the arsenic to minimize mass-dependent bias in mass spectrometer. The ion signal ratios of $^{75}As^+$ to $^{72}Ge^+$ (or $^{73}Ge^+$) were measured in high resolution mode ($R{\geq}10,000$) to separate potential isobaric interferences by high resolution ICP/MS. For method validation, the developed method was applied to the analysis of arsenic content in the NMIJ 7402-a codfish certified reference material (CRM) and the result was $37.07mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}{\pm}0.45mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$ which is in good agreement with the certified value, $36.7mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}{\pm}1.8mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$. Finally, the certified value of the total arsenic in the candidate laver CRM was determined to be $47.15mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}{\pm}1.32mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$ (k = 2.8 for 95% confidence level) which is an excellent result for arsenic measurement with only 2.8 % of relative expanded uncertainty.

The Study on the Relationships between IT Investments and Firm's Performance: The Differences According to the Levels of IS Strategic Applications and PEU (제조기업의 정보기술 투자와 기업 성과 간의 관계 연구: 전략적 활용 수준과 환경 불확실성에 따른 차이)

  • Choe, Jong-min
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2020
  • Purpose This study empirically investigates the impact of information technology(IT) investments on the financial and non-financial performance of a manufacturing firm. We examined the interaction effects of IT investments and strategic applications levels of information systems(IS). This study also demonstrated the three-way interaction effects of IT investments, levels of IS strategic applications, and perceived environmental uncertainty(PEU). Design/methodology/approach For this study, empirical data were collected from 98 manufacturing firms with the structured questionnaires. The data were analyzed with multiple regression models, and partial derivatives were utilized to identify the directions of the impact. Findings From the empirical results, it was found that when both the levels of IS strategic applications and the degrees of IT investments are high, the ratios of the costs of goods sold to total sales(RCGS) and the labor costs to total sales(RLCS) are decreased, as it were, the performance of a firm is improved. However, it was observed that when the levels of strategic IS are low, the high degrees of IT investments do not contribute to the improvement of a performance. The results showed that when the levels of strategic IS are high, the high degrees of IT investments incur the high RSAE not low RSAE. When PEU is considered, the empirical results showed that under the low degrees of PEU, the IT investments under high levels of strategic IS applications (strategic IT investments) improve the performance, as it were, low RCGS, and high degrees of perceived financial and non-financial performance. However, under high PEU, it was observed that high degrees of strategic IT investments do not increase the performance. When PEU is high, the strategic IT investments reduce RSAE, and under low PEU, RSAE is increased.

A Development of the Optimization Model for Reactive Scheduling Considering Equipment Failure (장치이상을 고려한 동적 생산계획 최적화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Jin-Kuk;Lee, Euy Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.571-578
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    • 2005
  • We propose a new optimization framework for the reactive scheduling. The proposed rescheduling scheme is specially focused on how to generate rescheduling results when equipment failure occurs. The approach is based on a continuous-time problem representation that takes into account the schedule in progress, the updated information on the batches still to be processed, the present plant state, the deviations in plant parameters and the time data. To update the predictive scheduling, we used right shift rescheduling and total regeneration when equipment failure occurs. And, a practical solution to the rescheduling problem requires satisfaction of two often confliction measures: the efficiency measure that evaluates the satisfaction of a desired objective function value and the stability measure that evaluates the amount of change between the schedules before and after the disruption. In this paper, the efficiency is measured by the makespan of all jobs in the system. And, the stability is measured by the percentage change in makespan and the modified sequence deviation in the predictive scheduling and rescheduling.

The Effect of Business Strategy on Stock Price Crash Risk

  • RYU, Haeyoung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study attempted to examine the risk of stock price plunge according to the firm's management strategy. Prospector firms value innovation and have high uncertainties due to rapid growth. There is a possibility of lowering the quality of financial reporting in order to meet market expectations while withstanding the uncertainty of the results. In addition, managers of prospector firms enter into compensation contracts based on stock prices, thus creating an incentive to withhold negative information disclosure to the market. Prospector firms' information opacity and delays in disclosure of negative information are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices in the future. Research design, data and methodology: This study performed logistic analysis of KOSPI listed firms from 2014 to 2017. The independent variable is the strategic index, and is calculated by considering the six characteristics (R&D investment, efficiency, growth potential, marketing, organizational stability, capital intensity) of the firm. The higher the total score, the more it is a firm that takes a prospector strategy, and the lower the total score, the more it is a firm that pursues a defender strategy. In the case of the dependent variable, a value of 1 was assigned when there was a week that experienced a sharp decline in stock prices, and 0 when it was not. Results: It was found that the more firms adopting the prospector strategy, the higher the risk of a sharp decline in the stock price. This is interpreted as the reason that firms pursuing a prospector strategy do not disclose negative information by being conscious of market investors while carrying out venture projects. In other words, compensation contracts based on uncertainty in the outcome of prospector firms and stock prices increase the opacity of information and are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices. Conclusions: This study's analysis of the impact of management strategy on the stock price plunge suggests that investors need to consider the strategy that firms take in allocating resources. Firms need to be cautious in examining the impact of a particular strategy on the capital markets and implementing that strategy.

Measurement of Refractive Index of Solid Medium by Critical Angle Method When Air Gap is Present

  • Lim, Hwan-Hong;Kwon, Moon-Soo;Choi, Hee-Joo;Kim, Byoung-Joo;Cha, Myoung-Sik
    • Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.210-214
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    • 2008
  • A critical angle method was used to measure the index of refraction of a solid medium when an air gap between the prism and the medium is present. The gap effect was analyzed both numerically and experimentally. Since the total internal reflection is severely disturbed by the large gap, determination of the critical angle and the resulting refractive index becomes ambiguous and inaccurate. By using an index matching fluid, we could determine the index of refraction with an uncertainty of ${\pm}2{\times}1^{-3}$ even when the gap is as large as 1 ${\mu}m$.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Human Aggregate Risk Assessment of Benzene using the CalTOX Model (CalTOX 모델을 이용한 벤젠 종합위해성평가의 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Ok;Lee, Minwoo;Song, Youngho;Choi, Jinha;Park, Sanghyun;Park, Changyoung;Lee, Jinheon
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.136-149
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOXTM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADDinhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADDtotal. Regarding human Riskcancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was identified as the most influential variable, followed by 'exposure time, active indoors (h/day)', and 'exposure duration (years)'. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was found to be most influential.

A Development of SCM Model in Chemical Industry Including Batch Mode Operations (회분식 공정이 포함된 화학산업에서의 공급사슬 관리 모델 개발)

  • Park, Jeung Min;Ha, Jin-Kuk;Lee, Euy Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.316-329
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    • 2008
  • Recently the increased attention pays on the processing of multiple, relatively low quantity, high value-added products resulted in adoption of batch process in the chemical process industry such as pharmaceuticals, polymers, bio-chemicals and foods. As there are more possibilities of the improvement of operations in batch process than continuous processes, a lot of effort has been made to enhance the productivity and operability of batch processes. But the chemical process industry faces a range of uncertainties factors such as demands for products, prices of product, lead time for the supply of raw materials and in the production, and the distribution of product. And global competition has made it imperative for the process industries to manage their supply chains optimally. Supply chain management aims to integrate plants with their supplier and customers so that they can be managed as a single entity and coordinate all input/output flows (of materials, information) so that products are produced and distributed in the right quantities, to the right locations, and at the right time.The objective of this study is to solve the purchase, distribution, production planning and scheduling problem, which minimizes the total costs of production, inventory, and transportation under uncertainty. And development of SCM model in chemical industry including batch mode operations. Through that, the enterprise can respond to uncertainty. Also integrated process optimal planning and scheduling model for manufacturing supply chain. The result shows that, the advantage of supply chain integration are quality matters seen by customers and suppliers, order schedules, flexibility, cost reduction, and increase in sales and profits. Also, an integration of supply chain (production and distribution system) generates significant savings by trading off the costs associated with the whole, rather than minimizing supply chain costs separately.

Uncertainty Analysis of the Net Flow Discharge and Diffusion Model in Gyeonggi Bay and Han River Estuary (경기만 및 한강하구의 순유량 및 확산모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Dae;Jeong, Shin-Taek;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.344-351
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    • 2010
  • Uncertainty analysis on the net flow discharge (NFD) influencing the long-term material transport and the simulation results of the salinity and COD concentration distribution using the MIKE21 diffusion model in Gyeonggi bay and Han-River estuary is carried out. The NFD flowing the Gyodongdo - Seokmodo channel via the North channel of Ganghwado is estimated about 97% of the total NFD and the NFD of the Yeomha channel is estimated as only $2.5{\sim}3.0%$. On the other hand, the uncertainty defined as the difference by the different time-scale data input is analysed by the comparison of the model simulation result of the salinity and COD concentration distribution. One is computed based on the daily river flow data, and the other is computed based on the monthlymean river flow data. The results show that the salinity and COD concentration differences are about -10~20 psu and ${\pm}1.0\;mg/L$ during the summer season having a high flow discharge in Yeomha channel, respectively. The difference is clearly negligible in the open sea area.