• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.1-11
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• 2017

PURPOSES : This study is aimed at development of a stochastic pavement deterioration forecasting model using National Highway Pavement Condition Index (NHPCI) to support infrastructure asset management. Using this model, the deterioration process regarding life expectancy, deterioration speed change, and reliability were estimated. METHODS : Eight years of Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) data fused with traffic loads (Equivalent Single Axle Loads; ESAL) and structural capacity (Structural Number of Pavement; SNP) were used for the deterioration modeling. As an ideal stochastic model for asset management, Bayesian Markov multi-state exponential hazard model was introduced. RESULTS:The interval of NHPCI was empirically distributed from 8 to 2, and the estimation functions of individual condition indices (crack, rutting, and IRI) in conjunction with the NHPCI index were suggested. The derived deterioration curve shows that life expectancies for the preventive maintenance level was 8.34 years. The general life expectancy was 12.77 years and located in the statistical interval of 11.10-15.58 years at a 95.5% reliability level. CONCLUSIONS : This study originates and contributes to suggesting a simple way to develop a pavement deterioration model using the total condition index that considers road user satisfaction. A definition for level of service system and the corresponding life expectancies are useful for building long-term maintenance plan, especially in Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) work.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.31-39
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• 2017

This paper analyses the effectiveness of Kill Chain (KC) and Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), also known as the K2 systems, using monte carlo simulation. It is assumed that the K2 systems are consisted with unitary KC and multi-layered (upper-tier and lower-tier) KAMD. And each system has two or three arbitrary weapon systems and its combination makes 12 scenarios. Measures of effectiveness (MOE) of the K2 systems were defined as ratio of eliminated ballistic missiles from total threats. And total cost was calculated by number of weapon launched and its unit cost. MOE and total cost of the K2 systems were estimated using monte carlo simulation with a thousand iteration for each scenario. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed and the best candidate was selected using fixed effectiveness approach. As a result, the performances of KC are prime factor that affects both effectiveness and total cost of the K2 systems. It is also, acquired proper level of lower-tier KAMD to achieve desired defense effectiveness. For future work, it needs to be performed cost-effectiveness analysis based on practical specification and life cycle cost of weapon systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.145-150
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• 2007

This study is a LCC case analysis on the school one of the BTL projects which is constructed by private organizations and rented to government. According to the RFP to make out documents, it is performed the case analysis based on the results of LCC calculation about maintenance & conservation costs; repairing costs and replacement costs. It is analyzed LCC on maintenance & conservation costs for 20 years(rent period) and 65 years(life cycle). As a result of LCC analysis, about more than 50% of total LCC are architectural works and the rest of them are machinery works, electric works, and civil works in the order. And it is also suggested some problems and their solutions to perform LCC analysis on the current BTL projects of school.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.55-67
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• 2010

Decision problem called an optimal release policies, after testing a software system in development phase and transfer it to the user, is studied. The applied model of release time exploited infinite non-homogeneous Poisson process. This infinite non-homogeneous Poisson process is a model which reflects the possibility of introducing new faults when correcting or modifying the software. The failure life-cycle distribution used generalized gamma type distribution which has the efficient various property because of various shape and scale parameter. Thus, software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement becomes an optimal release policies. In a numerical example, after trend test applied and estimated the parameters using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data, estimated software optimal release time.

• Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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• v.17 no.sup
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• pp.61-68
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• 2011

To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.85-105
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• 2012

So far, the importance of informatization, as well as investment into it, has been growing steadily. Due to the uncertainties and risks in adopting information technologies, systematic decision-making is definitely needed in investing in a large scale information system. Based on the existing theories about the economic life span of information systems and in consideration of the actual cost involved in the adoption and operation of the systems by the financial institutions in Korea, this study presents the optimal economic life span for all types of information systems in terms of the economic cost and generalizes the optimal life span. The ultimate purpose of this study is to develop a model that could be used in anticipating the timing of economic replacement of the information system of the same type and making decisions on IT investment.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.733-739
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• 2011

B2S(Ballasted track To Slab track) that is track system has been first developed in 2004 with foundation of rich experience and know-how of subway track upkeep and mending of facilities in 36 years to improve an existence pebble track at a concrete track. 'B2S' is admitted technology through patent registration in the domestic and Europe and it's made by a factory and put together at field, so it's able to construct precisely and to reduce a construction period. In addition, safety, the ecological balance and durability are excellent, and walking, cleaning, etc. has the advantage of easy maintenance. 'B2S' is currently laying 27.7km at Seoulmetro as of end of 2010 standard, but it'll be expected to be applied to a domestic Metro more from now on. It is possible to classify the total cost resolution structure of B2S system by R&D cost, test production and experiment cost, the initial facility cost, maintenance cost, disposal cost. In this research, it seems useful for selection evaluation which considered the life cycle cost or economics of the concrete track structure by analyzing an initial cost of facilities.

• IE interfaces
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• v.17 no.spc
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• pp.122-130
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• 2004

Since the cost of software maintenance occupies about 50~75% in a general successful organization, the software maintenance plays an important role in software life cycle. In particular, if the managed system needs to be operated in a long term or the system is very large and complex, then the maintenance is especially more important. Software maintenance is defined as software modification activities after customer delivery, such as improvement of performance or functionality, error correction, adaptation to environmental changes, etc. In this paper, software cost estimation models are proposed, that is based on productivity of manpower in maintenance projects. In order to do this, the activities of maintenance are classified into function change, non-function change, user support and application operation. The proposed models are constructed and verified based on the real size and cost information of projects in the real world. The approach in this paper is to discriminate the heterogeneous activities in maintenance projects, and then to calculate the respective cost of each discriminated activity. By using the proposed models, the total cost of maintenance project is summed from the costs of four activities. In addition the number of conflicts between owner and order receiver about the amount of cost will be reduced and the reasonable cost estimation system will be established.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.209-210
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• 2012

In this study, the following conclusions are drawn. First, the Inorganic terazzo tile flooring and LCC (Life Cycle Cost) analysis showed that the sum of the total cost of 150,304 won Inorganic flooring, terrazzo tile flooring minerals won 186,202 to 35,898 won, compared to 8.22% analysis of the cost savings that have been appearing. Second, if the color chip has a unique and elegant sentence patterns, beautiful and high-strength bonding and that the crack resistance was investigated.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2013

Recently, an extended warranty of a system following the expiration of the basic warranty is becoming increasingly popular to the user. In this respect, we suggest a replacement model following the expiration of extended warranty with minimal repair warranty from the user's point of view in this paper. Under extended warranty, the failed system is minimally repaired by the manufacturer at no cost to the user during the original extended warranty period. As a criterion of the optimality, we utilize the expected cost rate per unit time during the life cycle from the user's perspective and suggest the optimal replacement period after extended warranty. Finally, a few numerical examples are given for illustrative purpose.