• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.49-61
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• 2020

Prior studies on technology predictions attempted to predict the emergence and spread of emerging technologies through the analysis of correlations and changes between data using objective data such as patents and research papers. Most of the previous studies predicted future technologies only from the viewpoint of technology development. Therefore, this study intends to conduct technical forecasting from the perspective of the consumer by using keyword search frequency of search portals such as NAVER before and after the introduction of emerging technologies. In this study, we analyzed healthcare technologies into three types : measurement technology, platform technology, and remote service technology. And for the keyword analysis on the healthcare, we converted the classification of technology perspective into the keyword classification of consumer perspective. (Blood pressure and blood sugar, healthcare diagnosis, appointment and prescription, and remote diagnosis and prescription) Naver Trend is used to analyze keyword trends from a consumer perspective. We also used the ARIMA model as a technology prediction model. Analyzing the search frequency (Naver trend) over 44 months, the final ARIMA models that can predict three types of healthcare technology keyword trends were estimated as "ARIMA (1,2,1) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,0,0)". In addition, it was confirmed that the values predicted by the time series prediction model and the actual values for 44 months were moving in almost similar patterns in all intervals. Therefore, we can confirm that this time series prediction model for healthcare technology is very suitable.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.236-243
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• 2009

With advances in topic detection and tracking(TDT), automatic trend analysis from a collection of time-stamped documents, like patents, news papers, and blog pages, is a challenging research problem. Past research in this area has mainly focused on showing a trend line over time of a given concept by measuring the strength of trend-associated term frequency information. for detection of emerging trends, either a simple criterion such as frequency change was used, or an overall comparison was made against a training data. We note that in order to show most salient trends detected among many possibilities, it is critical to devise a ranking function. To this end, we define four properties(change, persistency, stability and volume) of trend lines drawn from frequency information, to quantify various aspects of trends, and propose a method by which trend lines can be ranked. The properties are examined individually and in combination in a series of experiments for their validity using the ranking algorithm. The results show that a judicious combination of the four properties is a better indicator for salient trends than any single criterion used in the past for ranking or detecting emerging trends.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.511-521
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• 2007

It is very important that design based on preference of consumers who continuously change. Therefore, the method that can decide on the design concept which a consumer can prefer in future points of time that a design is released is necessary. There may be various ways to decide a design concept, but trend analysis is one of the best ways to be able to satisfy consumer preference. The purpose of this study is to provide a process that can give a direction of MP3 player design oriented consumer emotion. For the purpose, we considered about trend analysis as the ways that can present the design direction that can grasp a change of continuous preference, and a consumer can prefer with early bases in future points of time of a consumer. In this empirical research, we decided on design elements and levels of the elements after collecting 228 MP3 players released from 2000 to 2007, and carried out trend analysis through homogeneity analysis by SPSS program. In the result, we knew that future consumers also will regard emotional experience consumption as important. So, MP3 player design will be developed into consumer emotion-oriented design. We predict 4 trends for a future MP3 player design. 1. Development of high-priced MP3 player with various multimedia functions. 2. Development of MP3 player with basic functions. 3. Development of new convergence products with MP3 function. 4. Development of new MP3 player based on flash memory. If designers can infer a future MP3 player design from this design trend results, the probability that can occupy competitive advantage in their competitions will be high. Therefore this study can be useful.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.31
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• pp.3.1-3.11
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• 2016

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.4133-4145
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• 2017

Advances in science and technology are driving us to the better life but also forcing us to make more investment at the same time. Therefore, the government has provided the investment to carry on the promising futuristic technology successfully. Indeed, a lot of resources from the government have supported into the science and technology R&D projects for several decades. However, the performance of the public investments remains unclear in many ways, so thus it is required that planning and evaluation about the new investment should be on data driven decision with fact based evidence. In this regard, the government wanted to know the trend and issue of the science and technology with evidences, and has accumulated an amount of database about the science and technology such as research papers, patents, project reports, and R&D information. Nowadays, the database is supporting to various activities such as planning policy, budget allocation, and investment evaluation for the science and technology but the information quality is not reached to the expectation because of limitations of text mining to drill out the information from the unstructured data like the reports and papers. To solve the problem, this study proposes a practical text mining methodology for the science and technology trend analysis, in case of aerospace technology, and conduct text mining methods such as ontology development, topic analysis, network analysis and their visualization.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.1
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• pp.21-29
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• 2019

This study analyzed the variability of drought risk based on trend analysis of dry-seasonal dam inflow located in upper river basins. To this, we used areal averaged precipitation and dam inflow of three upper river dams such as Soyang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam. We employed Mann-Kendall trend analysis and change point detection method to identify the significant trends and changing point in time series. Our results showed that significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (= dam inflow/precipitation) in three-dam basins. We investigated potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends using changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices. However, there were no clear relation among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.201-216
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• 2021

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of patent technology in textile materials using text mining methodology based on Dynamic Embedded Topic Model and Structural Topic Model. It is expected that this study will have positive impact on revitalizing and developing textile materials industry as finding out technology trends. Design/methodology/approach The data used in this study is 866 domestic patent text data in textile material from 1974 to 2020. In order to analyze technology trends from various aspect, Dynamic Embedded Topic Model and Structural Topic Model mechanism were used. The word embedding technique used in DETM is the GloVe technique. For Stable learning of topic modeling, amortized variational inference was performed based on the Recurrent Neural Network. Findings As a result of this analysis, it was found that 'manufacture' topics had the largest share among the six topics. Keyword trend analysis found the fact that natural and nanotechnology have recently been attracting attention. The metadata analysis results showed that manufacture technologies could have a high probability of patent registration in entire time series, but the analysis results in recent years showed that the trend of elasticity and safety technology is increasing.

• Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.375-386
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analysis the influence in furniture and interior design of pop design. Pop design is a trend which was in fashion for a short time between 1950s and 1960s. It is an experimental transient form in a flow of postmodernism. Through such a trend, we can analogize an idea and values of people speaking for a rapid change of society and culture chat that time. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to examine what environment of society and culture and what idea had an effect on people at that time. Also, the study will examine how the above had an effect on interior design and furniture design. Considering the above results, the study will examine an influence and meaning of pop design in design history. According to the result of analysis, characteristic of pop design is anti-modern, expendability, future mood.

• Journal of the Korea Fashion and Costume Design Association
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.25-36
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• 2006

This paper investigates recent trend and characteristic of sports casual ware. By literature review and case study, it compares active sports casual ware with sports ware and analyzes how the latter has been applied to the former. Further, it attempts to assess future design trend of sports casual ware The result of the analysis of 2004 F/W season's trend is the following. Most brands emphasize classic factors and, at the same time, adopts recent trends. They effectively use splendid colors to expose brand identity, and take advantage of sports games as a marketing tool of special lines. In addition, designs emphasizing women's sexy and healthy style are popular in sports casual ware. Recent trend is characterized by cross-over or hybrid. Active sports ware is expanded to a mixture with casual ware or casual ware featured sportive details and images.

• Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.35-50
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• 2010

The purpose of this study was to analyse the ralative efficiency of 15 public libraries over a time period(2006-2008) by Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA). The selected input variables were total staff, total area and total holdings. And the selected output variables were total circulations and total user. The results are as followed. First, a technical efficiency trend of public libraries has been improved since 2006. Second, a technical efficiency increase can be explained by increase of a pure technical and scale efficiency both.