Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Analysis of Drought Risk in the Upper River Basins based on Trend Analysis Results

갈수기 경향성 분석을 활용한 상류 유역의 가뭄위험 변동성 분석

  • Jung, Il Won (Infrastructure Performance Institute, Korea Infrastructure Safety Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Dong Yeong (Infrastructure Performance Institute, Korea Infrastructure Safety Corporation) ;
  • Park, Jiyeon (Infrastructure Performance Institute, Korea Infrastructure Safety Corporation)
  • Received : 2017.12.06
  • Accepted : 2018.10.16
  • Published : 2019.01.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed the variability of drought risk based on trend analysis of dry-seasonal dam inflow located in upper river basins. To this, we used areal averaged precipitation and dam inflow of three upper river dams such as Soyang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam. We employed Mann-Kendall trend analysis and change point detection method to identify the significant trends and changing point in time series. Our results showed that significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (= dam inflow/precipitation) in three-dam basins. We investigated potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends using changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices. However, there were no clear relation among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.

Keywords

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Fig. 1 Study area : Soyang Dam, Chungju Dam and Andong Dam

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Fig. 2 Accumulated annual precipitation and dam inflow during dry season (unit : mm)

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Fig. 3 Trends in six precipitation indices from 1973 to 2012(Inje station)

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Fig. 4 Dry seasonal potential evapotranspiration (PET) by calculating seventeen PET methods in Soyang dam basin

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Fig. 5 Changes in climatic variables in the Soyang dam basin (Inje station)

Table 1 Study period(years) of rainfall and dam inflow data

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Table 2 Classification of PET calculations based on the development philosophy

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Table 3 Results of trend analysis and change point detection analysis

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