• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time trend analysis

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Element loss analysis of concentrically braced frames considering structural performance criteria

  • Rezvani, Farshad Hashemi;Asgarian, Behrouz
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.231-248
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    • 2012
  • This research aims to investigate the structural behavior of concentrically braced frames after element loss by performing nonlinear static and dynamic analyses such as Time History Analysis (THA), Pushdown Analysis (PDA), Vertical Incremental Dynamic Analyses (VIDA) and Performance-Based Analysis (PBA). Such analyses are to assess the potential and capacity of this structural system for occurrence of progressive collapse. Besides, by determining the Failure Overload Factors (FOFs) and associated failure modes, it is possible to relate the results of various types of analysis in order to save the analysis time and effort. Analysis results showed that while VIDA and PBA according to FEMA 356 are mostly similar in detecting failure mode and FOFs, the Pushdown Overload Factors (PDOFs) differ from others at most to the rate of 23%. Furthermore, by sensitivity analysis it was observed that among the investigated structures, the eight-story frame had the most FOF. Finally, in this research the trend of FOF and the FOF to critical member capacity ratio for the plane split-X braced frames were introduced as a function of the number of frame stories.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Electrical Conductivity in Coastal Aquifers (연안암반대수층의 해수침투경향성 파악을 위한 전기전도도 시계열 분석과 예측)

  • Ju, Jeong-Woung;Yeo, In Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.267-276
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    • 2017
  • Seawater intrusion into coastal fractured rock aquifer, resulting in groundwater contamination, is of serious concern in coastal areas of Jeolla Namdo, Korea, which heavily depends on groundwater resources. Time series analysis and forecasting were carried out to analyze and predict EC which is a major indicator of seawater intrusion. Two time series models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) were tested for suggesting appropriate time series model. Time series data of EC measured over one year showed a increasing trend with short periodic fluctuations, due to tidal effect and pumping, which indicated that EC time series data tended to be non-stationary. SARIMA model was found better fitted to observed EC than any other time series model. Time series analysis and modeling was found to be a useful tool to analyze EC at coastal fractured rock aquifer subject to seawater intrusion.

Comparison of SqueeSAR Analysis Method And Level Surveying for Subsidence Monitoring at Landfill Site (매립지 지반침하 모니터링을 위한 SqueeSAR 해석법과 수준측량의 비교)

  • Kim, Dal-Joo;Lee, Yong-Chang
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.137-151
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    • 2018
  • Recently, National interest has been rising due to earthquakes in Gyeongju and Pohang, disasters caused by landslides, landslides, and sinkholes around construction sites, and damage caused by disasters. SAR is able to detect ground displacement in mm for wide area, collect data through satellite, predict timeliness of crustal change by time series analysis, and reduce disaster and disaster damage. The purpose of this study is to investigate the latest SAR interference analysis technique (SqueeSAR analysis technique) of Sentinel-1A satellite (SAR sensor) of European ESA for about 3 years by selecting the 1st landfill site in the metropolitan area in Incheon, The settlement amount was calculated in a time series. Especially, in order to examine the accuracy of the subsidence and subsidence tendency by the SqueeSAR analysis method, the ground level survey was compared and analyzed for the first time in Korea. Also, the tendency of the subsidence trend was predicted by analyzing the time series and correlation trend of the subsidence for three years. Through this study, it is expected that disaster prevention and disaster prevention such as sinkhole and landslide can be utilized from time series monitoring of crustal variation of the land.

A Patent Trend Analysis for Technological Convergence of IoT and Wearables (IoT와 Wearables 기술융합을 위한 특허동향분석)

  • Kang, Ji Ho;Kim, Jong Chan;Lee, Jun Hyuck;Park, Sang Sung;Jang, Dong Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.306-311
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    • 2015
  • This study aims at analyzing the convergence of Internet-of-Things and wearables technologies using cooperative patent classification(CPC). CPC, introduced to an increasing number of technological fields of Korean patents, is expected to be widely used in Patent Informatics because the classification codes in CPC are more specific than those of IPC, which reflect the characteristics of technologies in detail with accuracy. CPC has seldom been used up to date and most of the previous researches on technological convergence used IPC. As a pre-analysis step for analyzing the trend of technological convergence of IoT and wearables, CPC and IPC codes assigned to each patent were compared. By applying association rule mining to the analysis of CPC codes, we identified the technological fields where convergence frequently takes place and examined the trend of technological convergence over time.

Comparison on Color Preference of BRICs Consumers (BRICs 지역 소비자 색채선호 비교)

  • Choi Mi-Young;Shim Young-Wan;Syn Hye-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.56 no.5 s.104
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    • pp.118-131
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    • 2006
  • Color is one of the most effective factor in visual aspect influencing consumer's choice. However, the color preference varies as time passes, society changes, new culture develops, that is variable in its nature. And the underlying meaning or accompanying color image differs in every area. We believe the study on the color preference is meaningful, especially on BRICs market, recently gathering attentions for their market competitiveness and growth potential. For this research, data collected from 5 countries(including Korea) by 1:1 interview during 3 weeks in Aug. 2005. Usable data from 923 adult urban residents were used for final data analysis. Color chart for research was categorized by using COS Color System into KS standard color 10grades plus 1 neutral, with 5 grades of tones. Through this empirical study, the data were analyzed by mean, ANOVA, Duncan-test of SPSS Win(ver.10.0). The result generated from this study are as follows : First, analysis through hue & tone system reveals that preference on principle colors (R, Y, G, B, P) is higher than intermediate colors and pale, light, vivid tones were preferred to dare and deep tones. Second, personal color preference is reflected in color preference in fashion items. Thus, we may conclude color preference in fashion item largely influenced by country characteristics. Third, biggest difference by country from hue analysis are neutral and PB colors. Neutral, widely preferred color in every county, more preferred in India, Russia, Brazil than China. We expect this result can be utilized as a basic material for developing BRICs market.

A Study on the Information Environment and SWOT Analysis of e-Plant Portal System (e-Plant 포털 시스템 정보화 환경 및 SWOT 분석)

  • Ahn, Jang-Won;Jee, Sang-Bok;Jeon, Yong-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.539-542
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    • 2006
  • According as acceptance an order results of plant industry increases, ability of plant project management is required and necessity about information technology is augmented. For required information technology, developing information present conditions that consist of partial or unit system of domestic plant companies by synthetic system, development of systematic plant information system that supply standard direction presentation, tools and know-how about information technology need. This study achieved basic research that set information strategy and target by reflect trend of such plant industry, analyze future IT technology trend, international information environment, policy trend etc. and execute SWOT analysis of plant information system through this and present confrontation ways. It is presented confrontation ways by SWOT analysis through this research; (1) Development of education contents that can come forth competent person of plant industry, (2) Practical use of communication means that can offer by real time about informations connected with plant, (3) Offer of knowledge contents that supply various and useful inside and outside of the country's plant knowledge

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Semantic Network Analysis on the Research Trends in The Society of Korean Performance Art and Culture (우리나라 공연문화 연구동향의 의미연결망 분석)

  • Hwang, Dong-Ryul;Kwon, Yae-Ji
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.37
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    • pp.437-464
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    • 2018
  • This study used semantic network analysis to understand the academic identity and characteristics of the society of korean performance art and culture and to grasp the trend of the research. For this purpose, this study analyze the research trend of korean performance art and culture related papers based on 455 whole articles in the Journal of The Society of Korean Performance Art and Culture by the Korean Performance Art and Culture Association from 2000 to 2017. Through this research, the trends of The Society of Korean Performance Art and Culture in the period of time were identified, and the phenomenon of the performance culture field and the future development direction were suggested.

A study for the reduction of network traffic through an efficient processing of the trend analysis information (경향분석 정보의 효율적인 처리를 통한 네트워크 트래픽 감소 방안에 대한 연구)

  • Youn, Chun-Kyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.323-333
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    • 2012
  • Network traffic demand is increasing explosively because of various smart equipment and services on smart era. It causes of traffic overload for wireless and wired network. Network management system is very important to control the explosion of data traffic. It uses SNMP to communicate with various network resources for management functions and creates lots of management traffic. Those are can be serious traffic congestion on a network. I propose an improving function of SNMP to minimize unnecessary traffics between manager and agent for collecting the Trend Analysis Information which is mainly used to monitor and accumulate for a specific time period in this paper. The results of test show it has compatibility with the existing SNMP and greatly decreases the amount of network traffic and response time.

Tweets analysis using a Dynamic Topic Modeling : Focusing on the 2019 Koreas-US DMZ Summit (트윗의 타임 시퀀스를 활용한 DTM 분석 : 2019 남북미정상회동 이벤트를 중심으로)

  • Ko, EunJi;Choi, SunYoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.308-313
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    • 2021
  • In this study, tweets about the 2019 Koreas-US DMZ Summit were collected along with a time sequence and analyzed by a sequential topic modeling method, Dynamic Topic Modeling(DTM). In microblogging services such as Twitter, unstructured data that mixes news and an opinion about a single event occurs at the same time on a large scale, and information and reactions are produced in the same message format. Therefore, to grasp a topic trend, the contextual meaning can be found only by performing pattern analysis reflecting the characteristics of sequential data. As a result of calculating the DTM after obtaining the topic coherence score and evaluating the Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA), 30 topics related to news reports and opinions were derived, and the probability of occurrence of each topic and keywords were dynamically evolving. In conclusion, the study found that DTM is a suitable model for analyzing the trend of integrated topics in a specific event over time.