• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time distribution

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A Study on the Optimal Probability Distribution for the Time Interval Between Ships on the Traffic Route of the Busan North Port (부산 북항 통항 선박간의 시간간격 최적 확률분포에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Kwan
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2019
  • Traffic routes typically have heavy traffic. Especially, the entrance of the route has a high risk of accidents occurring because of ships entering and exiting the port. However, almost of studies have focused on the distribution of traffic on the route. Thus, studies on the distribution between ships for passing through the route are insufficient. The purpose of this study was to analysis the traffic in the Busan north port No.1 route for one week. Based on present traffic conditions, one gate line was settled on the route with an analysis of traffic conditions. Based on the analysis data, each optimal time probability distribution between ships was divided into inbound/outbound and traffic volume. An analysis of the optimal probability distribution, was applied to 31 probability distributions divided into bounded, unbounded, non-negative, and advanced probability distribution. The KS test was applied for identifying three major optimal time probability distributions. According to the KS test results, the Wakeby distribution is the best optimal time probability distribution on the designated route. Although the optimal time probability distribution for other transportation studies such as on vehicles on highways is a non-negative probability distribution, this distribution is an advanced probability distribution. Thus, the application of major probability distribution for using other transportation studies is not applicable to this study Additionally, the distance between ships in actual traffic surveys and the distance estimated by the optimal probability distribution were compared. As a result of the comparison, those distances were fairly similar. However, this study was conducted in only one major port. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the time between ships and calculate a traffic volume on varying routes in future studies.

Applying Conventional and Saturated Generalized Gamma Distributions in Parametric Survival Analysis of Breast Cancer

  • Yavari, Parvin;Abadi, Alireza;Amanpour, Farzaneh;Bajdik, Chris
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.1829-1831
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    • 2012
  • Background: The generalized gamma distribution statistics constitute an extensive family that contains nearly all of the most commonly used distributions including the exponential, Weibull and log normal. A saturated version of the model allows covariates having effects through all the parameters of survival time distribution. Accelerated failure-time models assume that only one parameter of the distribution depends on the covariates. Methods: We fitted both the conventional GG model and the saturated form for each of its members including the Weibull and lognormal distribution; and compared them using likelihood ratios. To compare the selected parameter distribution with log logistic distribution which is a famous distribution in survival analysis that is not included in generalized gamma family, we used the Akaike information criterion (AIC; r=l(b)-2p). All models were fitted using data for 369 women age 50 years or more, diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer in BC during 1990-1999 and followed to 2010. Results: In both conventional and saturated parametric models, the lognormal was the best candidate among the GG family members; also, the lognormal fitted better than log-logistic distribution. By the conventional GG model, the variables "surgery", "radiotherapy", "hormone therapy", "erposneg" and interaction between "hormone therapy" and "erposneg" are significant. In the AFT model, we estimated the relative time for these variables. By the saturated GG model, similar significant variables are selected. Estimating the relative times in different percentiles of extended model illustrate the pattern in which the relative survival time change during the time. Conclusions: The advantage of using the generalized gamma distribution is that it facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the standard Weibull or lognormal distributions. Alternatively, the generalized F family of distributions might be considered, of which the generalized gamma distribution is a member and also includes the commonly used log-logistic distribution.

The Optimized Standards and Criteria for Installing Switches on Distribution Feeder (국내 배편계통의 최적 개폐기 설치 기준)

  • Jo, Nam-Hun;Ha, Bok-Nam;Lee, Heung-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.238-246
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    • 2002
  • Utilities are trying to install the equipment of high quality to avoid deterioration of supply reliability. In addition, many sectionalizing switches which can decrease the total outage value for a fault are installed for the same reason. Therefore, utilities are interested in stun dards and criteria for installing switches to optimize the total cost on distribution systems. The affect of sectionalizing switches installed on distribution feeder is gradually decreased because the failure rate on distribution feeder is decreased. Also the automation for distribution systems is widely applied for the efficient operation. Therefore, the renewal for installation standards of sectionalizing switches Is required to reflect the current operation situation. The variable data is used to consider the KEPCO's real situation of distribution feeder as follows; the feeder capacity, connecting rate, feeder length, failure rate of distribution feeder, the failure rate of switches, perception time of feeder fault, the restoration time for a faulted section, the transfer time to other feeders, and the switching time. In this study, We propose equations which can determine the number of sectionalizing switches for minimizing the outage and switch installation cost.

The optimized standards and criteria for installing switches on distribution feeder (국내 배전계통의 최적 개폐기 설치 기준(I))

  • Cho, Nam-Hun;O, Jae-Hyeong;Lee, Heung-Ho;Ha, Bok-Nam
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.07a
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    • pp.70-73
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    • 2002
  • Utilities are trying to install the equipment of high quality to avoid deterioration of supply reliability. In addition, many sectionalizing switches which can decrease the total outage value for a fault are installed for the same reason. Therefore, utilities are interested in standards and criteria for installing switches to optimize the total cost on distribution systems. The affect of sectionalizing switches installed on distribution feeder is gradually decreased because the failure rate on distribution feeder is decreased. Also the automation for distribution systems is widely applied for the efficient operation. Therefore, the renewal for installation standards of sectionalizing switches is required to reflect the current operation situation. The variable data is used to consider the KEPCO's real situation of distribution feeder as follows; the feeder capacity, connecting rate, feeder length, failure rate of distribution feeder, the failure rate of switches, perception time of feeder fault, the restoration time for a faulted section, the transfer time to other feeders, and the switching time. In this study, We propose equations which can determine the number of sectionalizing switches for minimizing the outage and switch installation cost.

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APPROXIMATE ANALYSIS OF M/M/c RETRIAL QUEUE WITH SERVER VACATIONS

  • SHIN, YANG WOO;MOON, DUG HEE
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.443-457
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    • 2015
  • We consider the M/M/c/c queues in which the customers blocked to enter the service facility retry after a random amount of time and some of idle servers can leave the vacation. The vacation time and retrial time are assumed to be of phase type distribution. Approximation formulae for the distribution of the number of customers in service facility and the mean number of customers in orbit are presented. We provide an approximation for M/M/c/c queue with general retrial time and general vacation time by approximating the general distribution with phase type distribution. Some numerical results are presented.

A Study on Headway Distribution Models of Rural Two Lane Roads (지방부 2차로도로의 차두시간 분포 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jaepil;Kim, Dongnyong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study was done to model the headway distribution of rural two lane roads. METHODS : Time headway data for the various level of traffic volumes was measured in twelve sites. Based on the time headway data, existing seven mathematical models were evaluated and selected by comparing graphically the measured and theoretical distributions and conducting the Chi-square test. RESULTS : The results show that both the Schul model and Composite Model were the most appropriate models of the models. Based on the measured time-headway distributions, this study proposed a new headway distribution model by the shift of the Schul model. CONCLUSIONS : The shifted Schul model has the ability to describe time headway distirbutons for random, intermediate, and constant-headway states.

MODIFIED GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF ORDER k AND ITS APPLICATIONS

  • JUNGTAEK OH;KYEONG EUN LEE
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.709-723
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    • 2024
  • We study the distributions of waiting times in variations of the geometric distribution of order k. Variation imposes length on the runs of successes and failures. We study two types of waiting time random variables. First, we consider the waiting time for a run of k consecutive successes the first time no sequence of consecutive k failures occurs prior, denoted by T(k). Next, we consider the waiting time for a run of k consecutive failures the first time no sequence of k consecutive successes occurred prior, denoted by J(k). In addition, we study the distribution of the weighted average. The exact formulae of the probability mass function, mean, and variance of distributions are also obtained.

Analysis of Service Level and Safety Stock for an Inventory Distribution System: Variable Demand and Variable Lead Time Model (제고분배 시스템의 서비스수준과 안전재고: 변동 수요, 변동 조달기간 모형)

  • 박명규;윤승철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.20 no.42
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1997
  • This research fundamentally deals with an analysis of service level for a multi-level inventory distribution system which is consisted of a central distribution center and several branches being supplied stocks from the distribution center, Under continuous review policy, the distribution center places an order for planned order quantity to an outside supplier, and the order quantity is received after a certain lead time. Also, each branch places an order for particular quantity to its distribution center, and receives the order quantity after a lead time. In most practical distribution environment, demands and lead times are generally not fixed or constant, but variable. And these variabilities make the analysis more complicated. Thus, the main objective of this research is to suggest a method to compute the service level at each depot, that is, the distribution center and each branch with variable demands and variable lead times. Further, the model will give an idea to keep the proper level of safety stocks that can attain effective or expected service level for each depot.

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Analysis of Safety Stock and Service Level For an Distribution Center with Variable Demand Variable Lead Time Model (수요 및 조달기간의 변동을 고려한 물류 센터의 안전재고와 서비스수준 분석)

  • 박명규;조용욱
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2001
  • This research fundamentally deals with an analysis of service level for a multi-level inventory distribution system which is consisted of a central distribution center and several branches being supplied stocks from the distribution center, Under continuous review policy, the distribution center places an order for planned order quantity to an outside supplier, and the order quantity is received after a certain lead time. Also, each branch places an order for particular quantity to its distribution center, and receives the order quantity after a lead time. In most practical distribution environment, demands and lead times are generally not fixed or constant, but variable. And these variabilities make the analysis more complicated. Thus, the main objective of this research is to suggest a method to compute the service level at each depot, that is, the distribution center and each branch with variable demands and variable lead times. Further, the model will give an idea to keep the proper level of safety stocks that can attain effective or expected service level for each depot.

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