• 제목/요약/키워드: Time Curve Regression

검색결과 160건 처리시간 0.027초

배전기기 고장률 추출에 관한 연구 (A Study on Failure Rate Extraction of Power Distribution System Equipment)

  • 문종필;김재철;이희태;추철민;안재민
    • 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국조명전기설비학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.366-368
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate (TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential (random failure) and Weibull (aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate (MFR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR.

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최대수요관리를 위한 코호넨 신경회로망과 웨이브릿 변환을 이용한 산업체 부하예측 (A novel Kohonen neural network and wavelet transform based approach to Industrial load forecasting for peak demand control)

  • 김창일;유인근
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.301-303
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents Kohonen neural network and wavelet transform analysis based technique for industrial peak load forecasting for the purpose of peak demand control. Firstly, one year of historical load data were sorted and clustered into several groups using Kohonen neural network and then wavelet transforms are adopted using the Biorthogonal mother wavelet in order to forecast the peak load of one hour ahead. The 5-level decomposition of the daily industrial load curve is implemented to consider the weather sensitive component of loads effectively. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localization is adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and the components are reconstructed to predict the final loads through a six-scale synthesis technique.

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Industrial load forecasting using the fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform analysis

  • 유인근
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform analysis based technique for the industrial hourly load forecasting fur the purpose of peak demand control. Firstly, one year of historical load data were sorted and clustered into several groups using fuzzy clustering and then wavelet transform is adopted using the Biorthogonal mother wavelet in order to forecast the peak load of one hour ahead. The 5-level decomposition of the daily industrial load curve is implemented to consider the weather sensitive component of loads effectively. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localization is adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and the components are reconstructed to predict the final loads through a five-scale synthesis technique. The outcome of the study clearly indicates that the proposed composite model of fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform approach can be used as an attractive and effective means for the industrial hourly peak load forecasting.

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Development of Lifetime Assessment and Rehabilitation Cost Calculation Methods for Overseas ROMM Project

  • Hyun, Jung-Seob;Kim, Doo-Young;Hwang, Kwang-Won;Park, Min-Gyu
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 2017
  • Regarding the implementation of ROMM project (Rehabilitation, Operation, Maintenance & Management), which is one of overseas development projects, it is very important to diagnose the exact current status of aged thermal power plant. However, when people visit the power plant for the purpose of prediagnosis to implement the ROMM project, most target power plants for diagnosis, in general, are under operation. This can be a big interference factor to diagnose the exact current status of power plants. Therefore, in order to solve such interference factor, based on the 30 years of know-how in the field, the present study has developed a regression curve for a simple life time assessment and the calculation of rehabilitation cost that may be used as a reference relatively for the quantitative diagnosis on the status of a relevant power plant even during the operation of the power plant.

Engineering Valuation Based on Small Samples

  • Cho, Jin-Hyung;Lee, Sae-Jae;Seo, Bo-Chul
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2006
  • Box-Cox model and T-factor method have been widely used to measure economic depreciations for industrial property. The Box-Cox model which combines economic efficiency with depreciation pattern is here extended to the reliability function. To do so a Rayleigh distribution which has been used to estimate the reliability of current assets was chosen as an efficiency curve of marginal productivity. Such an approach provides the possibility to classify the efficiency curves into four categories. It is also possible to analyze the types of depreciation curves. Therefore, the power family of a non-linear Box-Cox model could be set at certain constant values, then the model can be transformed into a linear model to estimate the economic depreciation rates by utilizing the reliability function. Estimating the resultant linear regression equation requires minimal number of observations, while at the same time facilitating the test of hypothesis on depreciation rates.

색재현 모델을 이용한 CMYK to Lab 색변환에 관한 연구 (A study on the transfromation from CMYK to Labcolor space using color reproduction models)

  • 차재영;구철회
    • 한국인쇄학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국인쇄학회 2000년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2000
  • Recently, color proofing in printing industry grow rapidly. If an order decide color from known color information in the case of color reproduction, we can reduce expenses and time. In color proofing the best important point must be closed proofed color to primary color and secondary color. Model-based approaches have the advantages of faster recharacterization and the opportunity of simulating product enhancements such as changes in ink properties and halftoning. In this paper, we transformed the dot area of CMYK to CIELAB color space using color reprodution models. Firstly, we measured spectral reflectance of primary color printed by Matchprint II and the data was used to find tone reproduction curve using regression equation, and than we applied at primary color model, such as Murray-Davies, Yule-Nilsen, and mixed color model, such as Kubelka--Munk, relaxed version of spectral Neugebauser. In such results, the Kubleka-Munk model resulted in the best spectral reconstruction accuracy followed by relaxed version of spectral Neugebauer model, color difference is 2.8401.

색재현 모델을 이용한 CMYK에서 $L^{*}a^{*}b^{*}$ 색변환에 관한 연구 (A study on the Transformation from CMYK to $L^{*}a^{*}b^{*}$ color space using color reproduction models)

  • 차재영;조가람;구철희
    • 한국인쇄학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2000
  • Recently. color proofing in printing industry grow rapidly. If an order decide color from known color information in the case of color reproduction, we can reduce expenses and time. In color proofing the best important point must be closed proofed color to primary color and secondary color. Model-based approaches have the advantages of faster recharacterization and the opportunity of simulating product enhancements such as changes in ink properties and halftoning. In this paper, we transformed the dot area of CMYK to CIELAB color space using color reproduction models. Firstly, we measured spectral reflectance of primary color printed by Matchprint II and the data was used to find tone reproduction curve using regression equation, and than we applied at primary color model, such as Murray-Davies, Yule-Nilsen, and mixed color model, such as Kubelka-Munk, relaxed version of spectral Neugebauer. In such results, the Kubelka-Munk model resulted in the best spectral reconstruction accuracy followed by relaxed version of spectral Neugebauer model, color difference is 2.8401.

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생체리듬에 따른 싸이클로스포린의 약물동태 (Circadian Changes of Cyclosporine Pharmacokinetics in Rabbits)

  • 최준식;박복순;이진환
    • 한국임상약학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.66-70
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    • 1999
  • The effect of circadian rhythm on cyclosporine pharmacokinetics was studied in rabbits after oral administration of 10 mg/kg dose of cyclosporine at 10:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m. The blood concentration data were subjected to simultaneous computer nonlinear least squares regression analysis using a 1-compartment pharmacokinetic model. The blood concentrations of cyclosporine at 10:00 a. m. were increased significantly during 2-6 hr compared to those at 10:00 p.m. The area under the blood concentration-time curve (AUC) and peak concentration $(C_{max})$ of cyclosporine at 10:00 a.m. were increased significantly compared to those at 10:00 p.m. The mean total body clearance (CL) of cyclosporine at 10:00 a.m. were decreased significantly compared to those at 10:00 p.m. It is reasonable to consider individual circadian rhythm for effective dosage regimen of cyclosporine in therapeutics.

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Development and Validation of Generalized Linear Regression Models to Predict Vessel Enhancement on Coronary CT Angiography

  • Masuda, Takanori;Nakaura, Takeshi;Funama, Yoshinori;Sato, Tomoyasu;Higaki, Toru;Kiguchi, Masao;Matsumoto, Yoriaki;Yamashita, Yukari;Imada, Naoyuki;Awai, Kazuo
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.1021-1030
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    • 2018
  • Objective: We evaluated the effect of various patient characteristics and time-density curve (TDC)-factors on the test bolus-affected vessel enhancement on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We also assessed the value of generalized linear regression models (GLMs) for predicting enhancement on CCTA. Materials and Methods: We performed univariate and multivariate regression analysis to evaluate the effect of patient characteristics and to compare contrast enhancement per gram of iodine on test bolus (${\Delta}HUTEST$) and CCTA (${\Delta}HUCCTA$). We developed GLMs to predict ${\Delta}HUCCTA$. GLMs including independent variables were validated with 6-fold cross-validation using the correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. Results: In multivariate analysis, only total body weight (TBW) and ${\Delta}HUTEST$ maintained their independent predictive value (p < 0.001). In validation analysis, the highest correlation coefficient between ${\Delta}HUCCTA$ and the prediction values was seen in the GLM (r = 0.75), followed by TDC (r = 0.69) and TBW (r = 0.62). The lowest Bland-Altman limit of agreement was observed with GLM-3 (mean difference, $-0.0{\pm}5.1$ Hounsfield units/grams of iodine [HU/gI]; 95% confidence interval [CI], -10.1, 10.1), followed by ${\Delta}HUCCTA$ ($-0.0{\pm}5.9HU/gI$; 95% CI, -11.9, 11.9) and TBW ($1.1{\pm}6.2HU/gI$; 95% CI, -11.2, 13.4). Conclusion: We demonstrated that the patient's TBW and ${\Delta}HUTEST$ significantly affected contrast enhancement on CCTA images and that the combined use of clinical information and test bolus results is useful for predicting aortic enhancement.

상시 교통량 자료를 이용한 설계시간계수 추정 (Estimating Design Hour Factor Using Permanent Survey)

  • 하정아;김성현
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권2D호
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 전체 시간대별 교통량을 관측하지 못하여 설계시간교통량을 구할 수 없는 지점에 대하여 설계시간계수를 추정하는 방법에 대하여 분석하였다. 수시조사는 연 1~5회 조사되며, 이러한 지점에서는 설계시간교통량을 구할 수 없어 설계시간계수를 구할 수 없다. 분석을 위하여 2006년 일반국도 상시조사 지점의 시간대별 교통량을 이용하여 분석하였다. 설계시간계수를 추정하기 위하여 시간대별 교통량의 변동을 반영하는 시간대별 교통량의 변동계수(Coefficient of Variance), 시간대별 교통량의 표준편차, 첨두시간교통량(peak hour volume)과 도로의 특성을 파악할 수 있는 중차량비율, 주야율, AADT와 중방향계수 등의 변수를 독립변수로 하여 각 변수들과 설계시간계수와의 상관분석 및 회귀분석을 이용하여 설계시간교통량을 추정하였다. 산점도를 통하여 독립변수와 종속변수의 관계를 분석한 결과 대부분의 변수들이 곡선의 형태를 띠는 것으로 나타나 선형회귀분석보다 곡선회귀분석이 더 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 곡선회귀분석으로 분석한 결과 AADT를 독립변수로 하여 분석한 대수모형이 결정계수가 가장 높은 것으로 나타났다.