• 제목/요약/키워드: Threshold regression

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팥나방(Matsumuraeses phaseoli)의 발육과 생식에 미치는 온도의 영향 (Effects of Temperature on the Development and Reproduction of Matsumuraeses phaseoli (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae))

  • 안정준;김은영;서보윤;정진교
    • 한국응용곤충학회지
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    • 제61권3호
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    • pp.461-473
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    • 2022
  • 팥나방은 콩과작물 특히 팥을 가해하는 해충으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 팥나방의 생물적 특징을 알아보기 위해 발육단계별 발육기간, 성충의 수명과 번식능력을 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34℃ 항온조건에서 조사하였다. 알은 7℃와 34℃를 제외한 모든 항온조건에서 부화하였고 유충은 13~28℃ 온도조건에서 성공적으로 성충으로 발육하였다. 알의 발육기간은 25℃까지 온도가 상승할수록 짧아지다가 이후 온도에서 길어지는 경향을 보였다. 유충, 번데기의 발육기간과 성충수명은 온도가 상승할수록 감소하였다. 팥나방 발육단계별 발육 최저, 최고 한계는 LRF와 SSI모델을 이용하여 계산하였고 발육영점온도와 유효적산온일도는 선형회귀분석을 이용하였다. 1령 유충 부화부터 성충출현까지의 발육영점온도와 유효적산일은 9.1℃와 264.5DD였다. SSI모델을 이용한 부화부터 성충출현까지 발육최저 및 최고온도는 20.0℃과 32.3℃였고 이들간의 차이 즉 발육적정온도범위는 12.3℃였다. 온도와 관련된 팥나방 성충의 생존과 산란특성을 이용하여 산란모형을 작성하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 온도발육모형과 산란모형은 야외에서 팥나방의 개체군동태를 이해하고 콩과작물의 종합적인 해충군관리체계 확립에 기여할 것으로 보인다.

Initial Responses of Quercus serrata Seedlings and Forest Understory to Experimental Gap Treatments

  • Cho, Yong-Chan;Kim, Jun-Soo;Lee, Chang-Seok;Cho, Hyun-Je;Bae, Kwan-Ho
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2009
  • Pinus thunbergii plantations in Pohang-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Korea, are of low ecological quality, with arrested succession and a high proportion of ruderal species. To improve the quality of the habitat, we created canopy gaps ($\sim42\;m^2$) and monitored changes in abiotic (light availability, canopy openness) and biotic (survival and growth of seedlings and understory communities) variables in 2007 and 2008 in plots that had received one of five types of treatment: cutting of canopy trees and removal of the understory (CU), cutting of canopy trees only (C), girdling of canopy trees and removal of the understory (GU), girdling of canopy trees (G) or control. Each treatment was applied to three replicate plots. Abiotic variables did not significantly differ among treatments. Survival rates of target species were slightly lower in the CU, G and control conditions. Based on logistic regression analysis, the only significant growth factor affecting survival was height growth. Positive effects of seedling height and leaf area growth on survival were also detected, but did not reach statistical significance. In treatment G, gradual improvement of overstory conditions and mitigation of competition by limitation of disturbance to the understory community were likely to have promoted seedling growth. There were no significant effects of gap treatments on changes in species abundance (cover and richness) and composition of understory between the study years. This result implies that the small gaps created in our study may be below the threshold size to affect understory growth. However, the results of this study are based on a short-term investigation of only two years. Long-term research is strongly recommended to clarify the effects of gap treatment on plant communities in afforested areas.

CT Findings of Persistent Pure Ground Glass Opacity: Can We Predict the Invasiveness?

  • Liu, Li-Heng;Liu, Ming;Wei, Ran;Jin, Er-Hu;Liu, Yu-Hui;Xu, Liang;Li, Wen-Wu;Huang, Yong
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.1925-1928
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    • 2015
  • Background: To investigate whether CT findings can predict the invasiveness of persistent cancerous pure ground glass opacity (pGGO) by correlating the CT imaging features of persistent pGGO with pathological changes. Materials and Methods: Ninety five patients with persistent pGGOs were included. Three radiologists evaluated the morphologic features of these pGGOs at high resolution CT (HRCT). Binary logistic regression was used to assess the association between CT findings and histopathological classification (pre-invasive and invasive groups). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of diameters. Results: A total of 105 pGGOs were identified. Between pre-invasive (atypical adenomatous hyperplasia, AAH, and adenocarcinoma in situ, AIS) and invasive group (minimally invasive adenocarcinoma, MIA and invasive lung adenocarcinomas, ILA), there were significant differences in diameter, spiculation and vessel dilatation (p<0.05). No difference was found in air-bronchogram, bubble-lucency, lobulated-margin, pleural indentation or vascular convergence (p>0.05). The optimal threshold value of the diameters to predict the invasiveness of pGGO was 12.50mm. Conclusions: HRCT features can predict the invasiveness of persistent pGGO. The pGGO with a diameter more than 12.50mm, presences of spiculation and vessel dilatation are important factors to differentiate invasive adenocarcinoma from pre-invasive cancerous lesions.

광역규모 예측인자를 이용한 한반도 계절 강수량의 장기 예측 (Long-term Forecast of Seasonal Precipitation in Korea using the Large-scale Predictors)

  • 김화수;곽종흠;소선섭;서명석;박정규;김맹기
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제23권7호
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2002
  • 경험적 직교함수(EOF)분석법과 다중회귀법에 기초하여 지연상관된 광역규모 예측인자로부터 3개월 이전에 계절 강수량을 예측할 수 있는 슈퍼앙상블 모델이 개발되었다. 이 모델의 예측성이 교차검증법에 의해 평가되었다. 관측값과 예측값사이의 상관계수는 봄철에 0.73, 여름철에 0.61, 가을철에 0.69, 겨울철에 0.75로 나타났다. 이러한 값은 유의수준 ${\alpha}$=0.00에서 유의한 값이다. 수퍼 앙상블 방법의 범주형 예측성이 3개 범주로 나누어진 사례에 대해서 평가되었다. 3개 범주는 계절 누적강수량의 상위 33.3%를 과우해, 하위 33.3%를 소우해, 그 나머지를 평년해로 구분하였다. 범주형 예측의 적중률은 계절에 따라 42%에서 74%로 나타났다.

진딧물류를 포식하는 혹파리, Aphidoletes aphidimyza(Roundani)(Diptera: Cecidomyiidae)의 복숭아혹진딧물 포식과 발육 (Development and Predation of a Aphidophagous Gall Midge, Aphidoletes aphidimyza (Roundani) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) on Myzus persicae Sulzer)

  • 최만영;이건휘;백채훈
    • 한국응용곤충학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.45-45
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    • 2001
  • 진딧물류 천적 혹파리(Aphidoletes aphidimyza (Rondani))의 온도별 발육 및 복숭아혹진딧물에 대한 포식특성을 실험실 및 온실 조건에서 조사하였다. 온도와 유충의 발육속도와의 상관 을 구하였으며 ((regression; development rate (y) : 0.013348x (temperature)-0.173022, F = 41.14, p<0.01)), 발육영점온도는 $13^{\circ}C$이었다. $\25pm$2$^{\circ}C$ 에서 유충 발육기간은 5.3일 이었고, 1세대기간은 29 일이었다. 복숭아혹진딧물 밀도에 따른 혹파리의 포식량은 arena(직경 9cm)당 복숭아혹진딧물 10마리일 때 4마리를 포식하여 포화상태를 나타냈다. 온실조건에서 진디혹파리의 진딧물 포식은 지체적밀도의존반응과 유사한 반응을 보였다.

콜센터 근로자의 청력역치에 영향을 미치는 요인 (Factors that Affect the Hearing Thresholds of Call Center Workers)

  • 유계묵;김갑배;정광재;김규상
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Hundreds of thousands of call center workers are wearing an acoustic device for their businesses, such as telemarketing and customer counseling, and the number of the workers are increasing sharply. Because call center workers always talk to dozens of customers over the headset, they would be placed under the state of a higher risk with their hearing ability. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that affect the hearing thresholds for the call center workers. Methods: This study investigated hearing losses of 101 workers of 5 call centers in Korea by executing puretone audiometry and self-administered questionnaires. A cross table analysis was processed to compare gender differences between male and female. Male and female hearing thresholds were compared with the Students' t-test, and one-way ANOVA was conducted to observe the difference between non-occupational and occupational characteristics in 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8 kHz hearing thresholds for the female workers. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was conducted to find the factors that affect the 4 kHz hearing thresholds. Results and Conclusions: Male hearing thresholds were higher than those of female except for 8 kHz. In the group having an ear related disease, hearing threshold of male left ear was highly affected rather than that of female in 4 kHz. There were significant differences in the variables of alcohol drinking (2 kHz) and headset volume (8 kHz) in both ears. While this study does not show any significant factors that affect the hearing thresholds in the occupational characteristics, the gender and the previous ear related diseases, non-occupational characteristics, were found as the factors in 4 kHz. It is suggested that the more detailed survey be performed to identify the occupational factors that affect the hearing thresholds in the call center workers based on the result derived from this study.

정규혼합분포를 이용한 ROC 분석 (ROC Curve Fitting with Normal Mixtures)

  • 홍종선;이원용
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 2011
  • 스코어 변수의 민감도와 특이도와의 관계로 표현한 ROC 곡선을 더욱 정확한 진단을 위하여 분포함수와 공변량을 고려한 연구가 많이 진행되었다. 공변량을 고려하는 회귀분석 방법을 사용하였으며 이때 분포함수를 정규분포로 가정하거나 잔차의 분포함수를 추정하여 ROC 분석을 하였다. 본 연구는 분포함수가 주어지지 않으며 진단에 영향을 주는 공변량을 모르는 일반적인 상황에서 논의하였다. 확률변수인 스코어와 두 개의 보모집단으로 구성된 신용평가 자료에 적합한 분포함수를 추정하기 위하여 여러 개의 정규분포가 혼합된 정규혼합분포를 사용하여 ROC 분석을 한다. 고전적인 비모수적이고 경험적인 ROC 곡선에 적합한지를 파악하기 위하여 AUC 통계량을 사용하여 비교하며, 본 연구에서 제안한 정규혼합분포를 이용한 ROC 곡선이 다른 방법으로 구한 ROC 곡선보다 적합함을 보였다.

우리나라 폐경전 여성에서 칼슘, 단백질, 인의 섭취상태가 골밀도에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Dietary Calcium, Protein, and Phosphorus Intakes on Bone Mineral Density in Korean Premenopausal Women)

  • 오재준
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 1996
  • Effects of dietary calcium(Ca), protein, and phosphorus(P) intake on bone mineral density (BMD) were investigated in 129 Korean premenopausal women(age 31-54 years) without diagnosed disease. BMD was measured at the spine(vertebrae L2-4) and femur(neck, Ward's triangle and trochanter). By stepwise multiple regression analysis it was shown that protein, Ca, and P intakes affected most significantly on BMD at the vertebrae L2-4, protein and P intakes affected most significantly on BMD at the femoral neck and Ward's triangle, and body mass index(BMI) affected most significantly on BMD at the trochanteric region. When ate-matched BMD % at the vertebrae L2-4 and all femoral sites was grouped by three levels(<90%, 90-99%, >=100%), only at the vertebrae L2-4>=100% and 90-99% groups had higher Ca intakes than <90% groups. When Ca, protein and P intakes of the recommended level for Korean(RDA) were grouped by three levels (Ca or P ; <=650mg/d, 650-750mg/d, >=750mg/d, Protein ; <=55g/d, 55-60g/d, >=65g/d), only at the vertebrae L2-4>55g/d of protein intake had higher age-matched BMD % than <=55g/d intake, >=750mg/d of Ca and P intakes, age-matched BMD % than <=650mg/d. In RDA range of Ca, protein, and P intakes, age-matched BMD % of the vertebrae L2-4 and all femoral sites was greater than 90%. Correlation between Ca intake and vertebral BMD was examined closer. There was more significant linear correlation between vertebral BMD and Ca intake below 800mg/d(r=0.346, p<0.0001)than above(r=0.376, p<0.019), implying a threshold effect and vertebral BMD was better expressed as a function of the logarithm of calcium intake(r=0.3881, p<0.0001). These results suggest that Ca, protein, and P intakes greater than RDA help to maintain proper BMD in middle-aged prementopausal women. Especially dietary Ca have important role in increasing the vertebral BMD and 800mg/d of Ca intake is optimum amount.

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데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 건강보험공단의 수술 통계량 근사치 추정 -허니아 수술을 중심으로- (Estimation of a Nationwide Statistics of Hernia Operation Applying Data Mining Technique to the National Health Insurance Database)

  • 강성홍;서숙경;양영자;이애경;배종면
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제39권5호
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    • pp.433-437
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for estimating a nationwide statistic for hernia operations with using the claim database of the Korea Health Insurance Cooperation (KHIC). Methods: According to the insurance claim procedures, the claim database was divided into the electronic data interchange database (EDI_DB) and the sheet database (Paper_DB). Although the EDI_DB has operation and management codes showing the facts and kinds of operations, the Paper_DB doesn't. Using the hernia matched management code in the EDI_DB, the cases of hernia surgery were extracted. For drawing the potential cases from the Paper_DB, which doesn't have the code, the predictive model was developed using the data mining technique called SEMMA. The claim sheets of the cases that showed a predictive probability of an operation over the threshold, as was decided by the ROC curve, were identified in order to get the positive predictive value as an index of usefulness for the predictive model. Results: Of the claim databases in 2004, 14,386 cases had hernia related management codes with using the EDI system. For fitting the models with applying the data mining technique, logistic regression was chosen rather than the neural network method or the decision tree method. From the Paper_DB, 1,019 cases were extracted as potential cases. Direct review of the sheets of the extracted cases showed that the positive predictive value was 95.3%. Conclusions: The results suggested that applying the data mining technique to the claim database in the KHIC for estimating the nationwide surgical statistics would be useful from the aspect of execution and cost-effectiveness.

이중에너지 X선 흡수계측법을 이용한 폐경기 여성의 요추 및 근위 대퇴부의 골밀도 비교 연구 (A Comparative Study on BMD of Lumbar Spine and Proximal Femur in Post-Menopausal Women Using Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry)

  • 윤한식;모은희
    • 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 1999
  • Osteoporosis, which causes mainly fracture of the spine, proximal femur and distal radius by minimal trauma, is a major public health problem and its prevalence is steadily increasing in Korea according to the development of public health care. There are reliable methods for diagnosis based on bone densitometry. Early detection and intervention are important for reducing the incidence of fractures. A consensus definition of osteoporosis, based on bone density measurement, has been developed by the World Health Organization(WHO). In this study, bone mineral density(RMD) was measured by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry(DEXA) at the proximal femur and lumbar spine in 132 post-menopausal women. The purpose of this study is to find influential factors on the BMD of the proximal femur and the lumbar spine and to analyze correlation between BMD and the problematic factors. We obtained the following results : 1. Mean BMD score, T-score and Z-score of the proximal femur were $0.81(g/cm^2)$, -2.45(S.D.) and -2.09(S.D.) respectively and in the lumbar spine were $0.83(g/cm^2)$, -2.02(S.D.), -2.43(S.D.) respectively. 2. In correlation analysis between BMD and many factors, correlation coefficients were -0.467, 0.212, -0.321 and 0.241 in age, height, duration after menopause respectively. BMI and the residuals were comparatively small. 3. Correlation coefficients to age matched BMD, in height and body weight were 0.222 and 0.241, in age and duration after menopause were -0.268, -0.282. 4. The fracture threshold of proximal femur BMD to the 90th percentile was $0.845(g/cm^2)$. 5. At the result of multiple regression analysis, age, body weight, $BMI(kg/m^2)$ and duration after menopause described as significant variables.

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