• Title/Summary/Keyword: Threshold model

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Development of an Emergence Model for Overwintering Eggs of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) (미국선녀벌레(Metcalfa pruinosa) (Hemiptera: Flatidae) 월동난 부화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Wonhoon;Park, Chang-Gyu;Seo, Bo Yoon;Lee, Sang-Ku
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2016
  • The temperature-dependent development of Metcalfa pruinosa overwintering eggs was investigated at ten constant temperatures (12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, and $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$, Relative Humidity 20~30%). All individuals collected before April 13, 2012 failed to develop into first instar larvae. In contrast, some individuals that were collected on April 11, 2013 successfully developed when reared under $20{\sim}32.5^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. The developmental duration was shortest at $30^{\circ}C$ (13.3 days) and longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (49.6 days) in the fourth collected colony (April 26 2013). Developmental duration decreased with increasing temperature up to $30^{\circ}C$ and development was retarded at high-temperature regimes ($32.5^{\circ}C$). The lower developmental threshold was $10.1^{\circ}C$ and the thermal constant required to complete egg overwintering was 252DD. The Lactin 2 model provided the best statistical description of the relationship between temperature and the developmental rate of M. pruinosa overwintering eggs ($r^2=0.99$). The distribution of the developmental completion of overwintering eggs was well described by the 2-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.92$) based on the standardized development duration. However, the estimated cumulative 50% spring emergence dates of overwintering eggs were best predicted by poikilotherm rate model combined with the 2-parameter Weibull model (average difference of 1.7days between observed and estimated dates).

Finite Element Analysis of Bone Stress Caused by Horizontal Misfit of Implant Supported Three-Unit Fixed Prosthodontics (3차원 유한요소법에 의한 임플란트 지지 3본 고정성 가공 의치의 부적합도가 인접골 응력에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Seung-Hwan;Jo, Kwang-Hun
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2012
  • This study is to assess the effect of horizontal misfit of an implant supported 3-unit fixed prosthodontics on the stress development at the marginal cortical bone surrounding implant neck. Two finite element models consisting of a three unit fixed prosthodontics and an implant/bone complex were constructed on a three dimensional basis. The three unit fixed prosthodontics were designed either shorter (d=17.8mm model) or longer (d=18.0mm model) by 0.1mm than the span of two implants placed at the mandibular second premolar and second molar areas 17.9mm apart. Fitting of the fixed prosthodontics onto the implant abutments was simulated by a total of 6 steps, that is to say, 0.1mm displacement per each step, using DEFORM 3D (ver 6.1, SFTC, Columbus, OH, USA) program. Stresses in the fixed prosthodontics and implants were evaluated using von-Mises stress, maximum compressive stress, and radial stress as necessary. The d=17.8mm model assembled successfully on to the implant abutments while d=18.0mm model did not. Regardless if the fixed prosthodontics fitted onto the abutments or not, excessively higher stresses developed during the course of assembly trial and thereafter. On the marginal cortical bone around implants during the assembly, the peak tensile and compressive stresses were as high as 186.9MPa and 114.1MPa, respectively, even after the final sitting of the fixed prosthodontics (for d=17.8mm model). For this case, the area of marginal bone subject to compressive stresses above 55MPa, equivalent of the $4,000{\mu}{\varepsilon}$, i.e. the reported threshold strain to inhibit physiological remodeling of human cortical bone, extended up to 2mm away from implant during the assembly. Horizontal misfit of 0.1mm can produce excessively high stresses on the marginal cortical bone not only during the fixed prosthodontics assembly but also thereafter.

Semi-supervised learning for sentiment analysis in mass social media (대용량 소셜 미디어 감성분석을 위한 반감독 학습 기법)

  • Hong, Sola;Chung, Yeounoh;Lee, Jee-Hyong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.482-488
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims to analyze user's emotion automatically by analyzing Twitter, a representative social network service (SNS). In order to create sentiment analysis models by using machine learning techniques, sentiment labels that represent positive/negative emotions are required. However it is very expensive to obtain sentiment labels of tweets. So, in this paper, we propose a sentiment analysis model by using self-training technique in order to utilize "data without sentiment labels" as well as "data with sentiment labels". Self-training technique is that labels of "data without sentiment labels" is determined by utilizing "data with sentiment labels", and then updates models using together with "data with sentiment labels" and newly labeled data. This technique improves the sentiment analysis performance gradually. However, it has a problem that misclassifications of unlabeled data in an early stage affect the model updating through the whole learning process because labels of unlabeled data never changes once those are determined. Thus, labels of "data without sentiment labels" needs to be carefully determined. In this paper, in order to get high performance using self-training technique, we propose 3 policies for updating "data with sentiment labels" and conduct a comparative analysis. The first policy is to select data of which confidence is higher than a given threshold among newly labeled data. The second policy is to choose the same number of the positive and negative data in the newly labeled data in order to avoid the imbalanced class learning problem. The third policy is to choose newly labeled data less than a given maximum number in order to avoid the updates of large amount of data at a time for gradual model updates. Experiments are conducted using Stanford data set and the data set is classified into positive and negative. As a result, the learned model has a high performance than the learned models by using "data with sentiment labels" only and the self-training with a regular model update policy.

Temperature-dependent Development Model and Forecasting of Adult Emergence of Overwintered Small Brown Planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus Fallen, Population (애멸구 온도 발육 모델과 월동 개체군의 성충 발생 예측)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Park, Hong-Hyun;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.343-352
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    • 2011
  • The developmental period of Laodelphax striatellus Fallen, a vector of rice stripe virus (RSV), was investigated at ten constant temperatures from 12.5 to $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$ at 30 to 40% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs developed successfully at each temperature tested and their developmental time decreased as temperature increased. Egg development was fasted at $35^{\circ}C$(5.8 days), and slowest at $12.5^{\circ}C$ (44.5 days). Nymphs could not develop to the adult stage at 32.5 or $35^{\circ}C$. The mean total developmental time of nymphal stages at 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5 and $30^{\circ}C$ were 132.7, 55.9, 37.7, 26.9, 20.2, 15.8, 14.9 and 17.4 days, respectively. One linear model and four nonlinear models (Briere 1, Lactin 2, Logan 6 and Poikilotherm rate) were used to determine the response of developmental rate to temperature. The lower threshold temperatures of egg and total nymphal stage of L. striatellus were $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $10.7^{\circ}C$, respectively. The thermal constants (degree-days) for eggs and nymphs were 122.0 and 238.1DD, respectively. Among the four nonlinear models, the Poikilotherm rate model had the best fit for all developmental stages ($r^2$=0.98~0.99). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the two-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.84~0.94). The emergence rate of L. striatellus adults using DYMEX$^{(R)}$ was predicted under the assumption that the physiological age of over-wintered nymphs was 0.2 and that the Poikilotherm rate model was applied to describe temperature-dependent development. The result presented higher predictability than other conditions.

Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of the Late Marginal Heading Date of Rice using Climate Normal Data in Korea (평년 기후자료를 활용한 국내 벼 안전출수 한계기의 시공간적 변화 평가)

  • Lee, Dongjun;Kim, Junhwan;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.316-326
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    • 2014
  • Determination of the late marginal heading date (LMHD), which would allow estimation of the late marginal seeding date and the late marginal transplanting date, would help identification of potential double cropping areas and, as a result, establishment of cropping systems. The objective of this study was to determine the LMHD at 51 sites in Korea. For these sites, weather data were obtained from 1971 to 2000 and from 1981 to 2010, which represent past and current normal climate conditions, respectively. To examine crop productivity on the LMHD, climatic yield potential (CYP) was determined to represent the potential yield under a given climate condition. The LMHD was calculated using accumulated temperature for 40 days with threshold values of $760^{\circ}C$, $800^{\circ}C$, $840^{\circ}C$ and $880^{\circ}C$. The value of CYP on a given LMHD was determined using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days from the LMHD. The value of CYP on the LMHD was divided by the maximum value of CYP (CYPmax) in a season to represent the relative yield on the LMHD compared with the potential yield in the season. Our results indicated that the LMHD was delayed at most sites under current normal conditions compared with past conditions. Spatial variation of the LMHD differed by the threshold temperature. Overall, the minimum value of CYP/CYPmax was 81.8% under all of given conditions. In most cases, the value of CYP/CYPmax was >90%, which suggested that yield could be comparable to the potential yield even though heading would have occurred on the LMHD. When the LMHD could be scheduled later without considerable reduction in yield, the late marginal transplanting date could also be delayed accordingly, which would facilitate doublecropping in many areas in Korea. Yield could be affected by sudden change of temperature during a grain filling period. Yet, CYP was calculated using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days after heading. Thus, the value of CYP/CYPmax may not represent actual yield potential due to change of the LMHD, which suggested that further study would be merited to take into account the effect of weather events during grain filling periods on yield using crop growth model and field experiments.

DISEASE DIAGNOSED AND DESCRIBED BY NIRS

  • Tsenkova, Roumiana N.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1031-1031
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    • 2001
  • The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

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A Study on the Phonology of the Striped Rice Borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in Relation to the Introduction of New Agricultural Practices (경종법에 변천에 따르는 이화명나방 발생상의 변동에 관한 연구)

  • Song Yoo Han;Choi Seung Yoon;Hyun Jai Sun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.21 no.1 s.50
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    • pp.38-48
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    • 1982
  • This study was conducted to investigate the changes in moth occurrence of striped rice barer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in relation to climatic factors, rice varieties, and cultural practices. The light trap data from 41 forecasting stations for 14 years from 1966 to 1979 were analyzed by means of the changes in the time and amount of borer occurrence in connection with the introduction of new rice varieties, the accumulated effective day-degree and its variation for completing one generation, and the climatic factors affecting the moth occurrence. The total number of moths caught by light traps in both spring and summer generations were considerably decreased with the wide cultivation of new rice varieties. In fact, the spring moths were remarkably decreased since the new varieties were introduced in 1972. The occurrence ratio of summer moths against the preceeding spring moths was higher in the middle region and middle southern mountainous area than the other regions. Its high ratio of regions was annually expanded from the middle region to the southern region. The $50\%$ emergence dates of both generations were later in the southeastern region than in the middle region. The ecological characteristics were clearly shown between the northern and southern region of Chupungryeong in terms of the occurrence of summer moths, the ratio of occurrence of summer moths to the preceeding spring moths, and $50\%$ emergence dates of the summer moths during the years of $1977\~1979$. The ratio of the summer moth occurrence to the preceeding generation was negatively correlated with the average temperature in lune and July, respectively, and the average precipitation in late June. The ratio of spring moth occurrence over the preceeding generation was positively correlated with the average temperature in September, October, November, and March, respectively, whereas it was negatively correlated with the average precipitation in early September and March, and the average humidity in early May. The effective day-degree for one generation was in the range from 600 to 900 DD at upper threshold $30^{\circ}C$ and lower threshold $10^{\circ}C$.

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Thermal Effects on the Development, Fecundity and Life Table Parameters of Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on Yardlong Bean (Vigna unguiculata subsp. sesquipedalis (L.)) (갓끈동부콩에서 아카시아진딧물[Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae)]의 온도발육, 성충 수명과 산란 및 생명표분석)

  • Cho, Jum Rae;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Choi, Byeong-Ryeol;Seo, Bo-Yoon;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Ji, Chang Woo;Park, Chang-Gyu;Ahn, Jeong Joon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2018
  • The cowpea aphid Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a polyphagous species with a worldwide distribution. We investigated the temperature effects on development periods of nymphs, and the longevity and fecundity of apterous female of A. craccivora. The study was conducted at six constant temperatures of 10.0, 15.0, 20.0, 25, 30.0, and $32.5^{\circ}C$. A. craccivora developed successfully from nymph to adult stage at all temperatures subjected. The developmental rate of A. craccivora increased as temperature increased. The lower developmental threshold (LT) and thermal constant (K) of A. craccivora nymph stage were estimated by linear regression as $5.3^{\circ}C$ and 128.4 degree-days (DD), respectively. Lower and higher threshold temperatures (TL, TH and TH-TL, respectively) were calculated by the Sharpe_Schoolfield_Ikemoto (SSI) model as $17.0^{\circ}C$, $34.6^{\circ}C$ and $17.5^{\circ}C$. Developmental completion of nymph stages was described using a three-parameter Weibull function. Life table parameters were estimated. The intrinsic rate of increase was highest at $25^{\circ}C$, while the net reproductive rate was highest at $20^{\circ}C$. Biological characteristics of A. craccivora populations from different geographic areas were discussed.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of White Backed Planthopper (WBPH), Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) (Homoptera: Delphacidae) (흰등멸구 [Sogatella furcifera (Horvath)] 온도 발육 모델)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Park, Hong-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2013
  • The developmental times of the immature stages of Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) were investigated at ten constant temperatures (12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20~30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs were successfully developed on each tested temperature regimes except $12.5^{\circ}C$ and its developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (22.5 days) and shortest at $32.5^{\circ}C$ (5.5 days). Nymphs successfully developed to the adult stage from $15^{\circ}C$ to $32.5^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. Developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (51.9 days) and it was decreased with increasing temperature up to $32.5^{\circ}C$ (9.0 days). The relationships between developmental rate and temperature were fitted by a linear model and seven nonlinear models (Analytis, Briere 1, 2, Lactin 2, Logan 6, Performance and modified Sharpe & DeMichele). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $12.3^{\circ}C$ respectively. The thermal constant required to complete egg and nymphal stage were 122.0 and 156.3 DD, respectively. The Briere 1 model was best fitted ($r^2$= 0.88~0.99) for all developmental stages, among seven nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by three non-linear models (2-parameter, 3-parameter Weibull and Logistic) ($r^2$= 0.91~0.96) except second and fifth instar.