• 무역학회지
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.47-66
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• 2018

본 연구는 본 연구는 최근 발생하고 있는 미국과 중국 간의 무역 분쟁이 가져다주는 경제적 효과를 분석한다. (i) 미국이 중국에 관세를 일방적으로 부과하는 경우, (ii) 미국과 중국이 쌍방으로 관세를 부과하는 경우, (iii) 미국이 보호무역주의를 확대하여 한국, 일본, EU의 특정 산업(자동차 및 철강)에 보호무역 관세를 추가 부과하는 경우를 CGE모형을 이용하여 각 국의 거시경제변수 및 산업별 수출입 변화를 추정한다. 연구결과에 따르면, 미국과 중국의 무역 전쟁이 발생할 경우 양국의 GDP 및 후생은 모두 감소한다. 그 중에서도 미국보다 중국의 감소폭이 더 크게 나타나, 무역전쟁은 미국보다 중국에게 더 불리한 것으로 평가된다. 무역전쟁의 기간이 길어질수록, 중국의 GDP 및 후생의 감소폭은 더 확대되는 것으로 나타난다. 산업별 분석의 결과에 따르면, 전자산업, 수송기기산업 및 금속산업의 세계 교역량이 크게 감소한다. 무역 분쟁 당사국의 교역량이 크게 감소하는 반면 제3국의 교역량은 크게 변동하지 않아, 결국 무역 분쟁은 부정적 효과는 두 국가에게 돌아가는 것으로 평가된다. 무역 분쟁 밖에 있는 국가들의 GDP와 후생은 오히려 소폭 증가하는 것으로 나타난다. 마지막으로, 미국이 보호무역주의를 한국, 일본, EU로 확대한 경우, 양국의 GDP 및 후생의 감소폭이 더 크게 나타나, 미국이 보호무역 정책을 확대하는 것은 자국 경제에 바람직하지 않은 결과를 초래한다. 따라서 한국은 보호주의 정책의 부당성과 한국 산업의 피해를 강조하는 것에 우선하여 미국의 중국규제의 정당성 측면에 동조하면서 미국 보호주의 정책에서 벗어나는 전략수립이 필요하다.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.89-100
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• 2017

지난 2017년 1월, 트럼프가 미국의 제 45대 대통령으로 취임하였다. 그는 대선기간 중에 '미국 우선주의'(America First)를 적극적으로 표방하였다. 그의 이런 주장이 대외정책에 있어서 '고립주의'(Isolationism)를 표방하는 것으로 비취지고 있다. 북한의 핵위협에 대하여 미국의 '확장억제'(Extended Deterrenc)에 전적으로 의존하고 있는 한국에 있어서 이는 단순한 문제가 아니다. 즉 미국이 고립주의로 회귀하여 한미동맹 공약이행 의지가 약화되는 것으로 인식될 경우 북한의 오판 가능성은 그만큼 높아질 것이기 때문이다. 그동안 한국사회에서는 미국으로부터 안보를 지원받고 정책적 공조를 제공하는 전형적인 '비대칭 동맹'(Asymmetry Alliance)인 한미동맹의 가치를 재평가하려는 다양한 시도가 있었다. 이에 북한의 고도화된 핵도발 위협에 효과적으로 대응하고, 신장된 한국의 국력수준에 부합된 한미동맹의 효용성을 동맹이론에 입각하여 평가해보고 대책을 강구하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 한미동맹을 '자율성-안보 교환 모델'에 기초하여, 위협인식, 정책공조와, 동맹국으로서 가치 측면으로 구체화하여 평가해보고, 향후 한미동맹의 전략적 함의를 도출하였다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.47-74
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• 2018

미국은 20세기 GATT와 WTO 설립에 크게 기여하며 자유무역국가로 인식되어 왔다. 그러나 2017년 트럼프 행정부 출범과 함께 '미국 우선주의'(America-First) 정책 노선과 그 과정에서의 교역상대국에 대한 일방적인 통상압박으로 신(新)통상기류에 대한 우려를 확산시키고 있다. 하지만 미국은 역사적으로도 자국의 이해관계가 큰 산업 군에 대해서는 일방주의 통상정책을 활용해 왔는데, 대표적인 예가 일본 및 한국의 자동차 산업과 관련된 것이다. 본 논문에서는 자동차 산업을 중심으로 미국의 일방주의 통상정책 사례를 일별한 뒤 향후 미국의 또 다른 주력 산업인 IT, 지적재산, 서비스, 농축산물과 관련해 재연될 소지가 있는 본 정책 노선에 대해 지적하고 이에 대한 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 또한, 미국이 상기 일방주의 통상정책으로 기대했던 결과를 달성 했는지에 대한 검토와 평가도 함께 고찰한다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.3-33
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• 2010

Paperless trade is a new trade paradigm that has innovated on traditional trade procedures, which relied on manual work in the past, and applied an IT-based e-document standard. To realize paperless trade in Korea, a lot of efforts have been made. Korea has overcome many difficulties, a lack of awareness, trials and errors, etc. at the initial introduction stage and strived to establish a stable infrastructure through the government's policy support and active cooperation with the trade business communities and related organizations. Now, Korea became a well-known leader in IT industry, especially in the paperless trade infrastructure and strategic policies. The one-stop trading system named 'uTradeHub' is operated by a paperless trade service provider, Korea Trade Network(KTNET). uTradeHub includes trade finance and settlement, customs clearance and export and import logistics, improving trading procedures and reducing related expenses. Private-Public joint efforts from Korean government and private sectors which have respectively fulfilled their role and function with market-oriented practical policies and strategies has lead Korea a world leading country in paperless trade. Moreover, Korea expended its efforts to the global areas. Korea has started to activate multi-national paperless trade alliances such as PAA(Pan-Asia e-Commerce Alliance), ASEAL(Asia Europe Alliance for Paperless Trading) as well as established the bilateral cooperative networks with China and Taiwan. The one-stop trading system, uTradeHub should keep close cooperations between nations since trade itself is implemented in a cross-border ways. In the near future, it is expected uTradeHub can achieve best results in the simplification of procedures and cost savings when an international linkage is completely established with international cooperations.

• Journal of Evidence-Based Herbal Medicine
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.17-26
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• 2008

Nowadays the flow of international trade is that there seems to appear economic block significantly because most countries contract FTAs, so our market condition is changing to a severe competitive situation. Korea which has 70% of foreign dependence of trade must get involved in regionalism, and also actively promote FTA more than any other countries. FTA on February in 2006, the pharmaceutical industry are anxious. The pharmaceutical industry in Korea has recently come to a crisis that it is hard to expect a growth due to structure of profit and a change for the worse of management. If Korea-U.S. FTA are contracted in this kind of situation, domestic pharmaceutical companies will be at stake. We can anticipate that FTA with the country that has a strong competitive power like U.S. affect negatively on pharmaceutical industry, because the industry doesn't have enough self-competitiveness. Considering this kind of surroundings, we need to present the policy to enhance competitiveness for damage limitation on pharmaceutical industry by Korea-U.S. FTA. Under this background, this research has groped for a direction to strengthen the competitiveness to develop pharmaceutical industry in quality. The competitive enhancement plan is presented which is divided into the government policy part, the R&D part, and the management part. Although Korea-U.S. FTA is analyzed to wither the pharmaceutical industry, it would be thought that it is a good chance to upgrade domestic pharmaceutical industry if we make the best use of it, and also to make in roads into foreign market.

• 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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• 제14권
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• pp.9-85
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• 2001

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.87-107
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• 2010

This paper reviews the distinctive characteristics between e-Trade and e-Commerce in view of commercial arbitration in Korea and explores several improvements for the role of commercial arbitration. As the volume of e-Trade and e-Commerce has expanded day by day, there will be more disputes between traders no matter where the commerce may occur. But despite increasing of the disputes relating to e-Commerce transaction, it seems that the role of commercial arbitration has been shrunk instead. Korea needs to improve the role of commercial arbitration in order to meet and lead the age of u-Trade Hub(u-TH) service and to adopt an offensive or active attitude when arbitration used. Moreover, it is suggested that the competence of arbitration should not only be intensified more precisely but also be redesigned more systematically. Korea should take advantage of arbitration resources actively such as arbitrators as human resource and experiences as knowledge assets and also prepare the policy for sharing those arbitration resources between arbitrators more effectively.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.41-62
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper examines whether the imposition of countervailing duties by the United States on undervalued foreign currency is legally consistent with the WTO's SCM Agreement. Design/methodology - The study uses a methodology that involves analyzing relevant WTO agreements, prior panel reports, Appellate Body decisions, and other legal documents. Findings - The findings suggest that to impose countervailing duties, certain legal requirements must be met, including financial contribution, benefit, and specificity. The paper also notes that when calculating the benefits of undervalued foreign currency, losses from import activities due to currency undervaluation must be considered. Additionally, classifying all exports to the US under specific industries or business groups is likely to be inconsistent with the SCM Agreement. Originality/value - Even the US countervailing measures on exchange rate subsidies may not comply with WTO regulations due to incorrect calculation of benefits and a lack of specificity, however, it suggests that when intervening in the foreign exchange market, the measures should aim to achieve only minimum policy goals.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.117-142
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• 2015

This paper uses a 53-country 15-industry computable general equilibrium model of trade to analyze the effects of the Korea-China free trade agreement on the Korean economy, the manufacturing sector in particular. The model is based on Yaylaci and Shikher (2014) which uses the Eaton-Kortum methodology to explain intra-industry trade. The model predicts that the Korea-China FTA will increase Korea-China manufacturing trade by 56%, manufacturing employment in Korea by 5.7% and China by 0.55%. The model also predicts significant reallocation of employment across industries with the Food industry in Korea losing jobs and other industries there gaining jobs, with the Medical equipment industry gaining the most. There will be some trade diversion from the ASEAN countries, as well as Japan and the United States.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.127-137
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• 2021

Mainland China area has been a long-term, major trade rival and partner of Taiwan, accounting for more than 40% of Taiwan's total annual trade exports, and so Sino-US trade friction is expected to have a significant impact on Taiwan's economy in the future. This study focuses on major bad news of Sino-US trade frictions and how it generates short-term shocks for Taiwan's equity market and fear sentiment. It further explores the mutual interpretation relationship between price changes such as VIX, Taiwan's stock market index, and the VIX ETF to identify which factors have information leadership as leading indicators. The study period covers 750 trading days from 2017/1/3 to 2020/1/31. This study finds that, when a policy news is announced, the stock market index falls significantly, the change in the trading price (net value) of the VIX ETF rises significantly, and the overprice rate significantly drops, but VIX does not, showing that fear sentiment exists in the Taiwan's market. The net value of the VIX ETF shows an information advantage as a leading indicator. This study suggests that, when the world's two largest economies clash over trade, the impact on Taiwan's equity market is inevitable, and that short-term fear effects will arise.